popper iknow presentation for the horizon scanning ... · scanning 2.0. aim • to elucidate and...
TRANSCRIPT
Rafael PopperScientific Director & Project Leader
University of Manchester
www.iknowfutures.eu socio-economic sciences and humanities research
www. iknowfutures .eu
horizon scanning
2.0
Aim• To elucidate and examine events and developments potentially shaping or shak ing
the future of science, technology and innovation in the Europe and the world
Objectives• To develop and pilot conceptual and methodological frame works
– to identify, classify, cluster & analyse wild cards & weak signals (WI-WE)
• To assess selected WI-WE’s– implications for, and expected impact on
• science, technology and innovation (STI)– relevance for key dimensions of European research & technology development :
• Researchers mobility• Research infrastructures• Research institutions• Knowledge sharing• Joint Programming (research programmes and prioriti es)• International S&T cooperation
About iKNOW
horizon scanning
2.0
WP8: Developing and piloting tools and applications(iKnow Multi-Module Web-Environment & Community )
• Wi-We Bank : using Web 2.0 approaches and tools• Wi-We Scan : WI-WE scanning & search system
(including WI-WE clustering and visualisation)
T
I
M
E
WP 3 Characterisation of WI-WE
WI-WE Bank
WP5: National & Regional viewsFour country surveys
(2 FP7 themes per country, implications on 6 ERA dimensions)
WP6: National Multi-Method Workshops
month 1
month 30
WP7: writing case studies
WI-WE Bulletins
FP7 Themes
ERA Dimensions
Thematic areas
Researchers
Research Infrastructures
Research Institutions
Knowledge Sharing
Research Progr. & Prior.
InternationalisationFI UK CZ GE
CZ FI GE UK
WP9: Disseminating & Interconnecting Knowledge
WP1
COORDINATION
&
MANAGEMENT
IL
month 15
WP2: State of the art, literature review on Weak Signals and Wild Cards (WI-WE)
WP4: EU & International views1 Cross-national Delphi survey
50 (telephone) interviews
iKNOW logic
(WI) Wild Cards
– situations/events with perceivedlow probability of occurrence but potentially high impact if they were to occur.
(WE) Weak Signals
– unclear observables warning usabout the probability of future events (including Wild Cards). They implore us to consider alternative interpretations of an issue’s evolution to gauge its potential impact.
DESIRABLE
MIXED/UNCERTAIN
UNDESIRABLE
WI-WE can be…
What are we scanning?
horizon scanning
2.0
information collection (1 /5)
• ILTD Inward-Looking Top-Down» 6 iKNOW Consortium» Over 2,000 EU-funded research projects
• OLBU Outward-Looking Bottom-Up» iKNOW Community (Policy-makers; Decision-
makers, Researchers and Foresight practitioners » Different knowledge sources
• ILBU Inward-Looking Bottom-Up• OLTD Outward-Looking Top-Down
horizon scanning
2.0
information collection (2 /5)
1. iKNOW Consortium (ILTD scanning)2. iKNOW Community (OLBU scanning)3. Wi-We Bank (iKNOW Library)4. Interviews
– S&T experts, ERA experts, Foresighters5. Workshops (UK, FI, CZ, GE, BE, …)6. Surveys (e.g. OII’s Future Internet Delphi)7. WI-WE Delphi Survey8. Mapping Foresight Environment
– European Foresight Platform (former EFMN)
horizon scanning
2.0
Wi-We Bank (iKNOW Library)
horizon scanning
2.0
1Type of event
Wi-We Bank (iKNOW Library)
horizon scanning
2.0
2Characterization
Wi-We Bank (iKNOW Library)
horizon scanning
2.0
3Systems
+Desirability
Wi-We Bank (iKNOW Library)
horizon scanning
2.0
4importance
information collection (3 /5)
Interviews
• Foresight
• S&T
• ERA
How many?
• around 50
horizon scanning
2.0
information collection (4 /5)
iKNOW workshops
Thematic experts
• Peter Ellwood (UK)
• Fiona Lickorish (UK)
• John Reynolds (UK)
• John Turnpenny (UK)
• Martin Fatun (CZ)
A facilitator
• Yanuar Nugroho (UK)
A rapporteur
• David Cain (UK)
A supervisor
• Rafael Popper (UK)
horizon scanning
2.0
information collection (5 /5)
iKNOW workshops
18 to 20 ‘wild’ situations
• Wild features / factors
• Interpretations
• Impacts
• Actors
• Actions*
• (Weak) Signals
Actions / Recommendations
• Policy
• Business
• Research
horizon scanning
2.0
MPs ‘fraudulent’ claims (e.g. an adult film, mortgag es on homes that relatives live in, paying too much to
relatives from public funds, etc)
Media Frenzy: MPs' expenses making headlines for nearly two years
Ac 2i 1
national
european
global
wildwildwildwild----tamelinetamelinetamelinetameline
actors*actors*actors*actors*
i 2 i 3
Impacts*Impacts*Impacts*Impacts*
interpretationsinterpretationsinterpretationsinterpretations
E
G
D
S
L
P
i
E
F 1
F 2
F 3
F 4
im 1
im 2
actions*actions*actions*actions*
Ac 1
UK Parliamentary system UK Parliamentary system UK Parliamentary system UK Parliamentary system undermined by MP expensesundermined by MP expensesundermined by MP expensesundermined by MP expenses
(moat cleaning on the taxpayer)
Historic01010101
national
european
A 1 A 2 A 3
F 1
F 2
F 3
Leaked information (CD): expenses claims were published by the Daily Telegraph
Freedom of Information campaigners won a High Court case to get MPs claims released after years o f
battling Commons authorities
i 1Complete and meaningful reform need
387 recommendations in BBC’s Have Your Say on MP expenses
50% of MPs are corrupt316 recommendations in BBC’s Have Your Say on MP expenses
Ac 1 Sir Thomas Legg’s audit of MPs' expenses
Ac 2The Director of Public Prosecutions announces that 3 MPs and 1 peer
will face criminal charges over their expense claim s
im 1 Public distrust in MPs has mounted
F 4
i 3 Sir Thomas Legg’s interpretation: "vague rules" and a "culture of deference" surrounds MPs' expenses
i 2
A 1Freedom of Information
campaigners A 3
High Court
im 2 New rules for MP expenses
A 4
A 2 MPS
Daily Telegraph / Media
A 4
methodological filters
2009 Space
blogs
social networks
interviewsinterviews Etc.
scientific journals
2010 Space
horizon scanning
2.0
children workshops
?
blogs
knowledge filters
horizon scanning
2.0in
tuiti
velo
gica
l
unfamiliar
com
mon
sen
secr
itica
lpr
ospe
ctiv
est
rate
gic
familiar knowledgeable expert
interviews
researchprojects
expertworkshops
surveysmedia
science fiction ?
social networks
iKNOWsources
books journal articles
manifestation & perception filters
horizon scanning
2.0
information retrieval filters
horizon scanning
2.0
keyword + issue type
filters
inspired by(source)
+related to(impact)
filters
re-emerging
continuation
discontinuation
future
emerging / new
WI
WI
WI
issues
issues
issues
issues
past
resolution WI
issues
inte
rpre
tatio
n
WE
WE
WE
WE
WE
asse
ssm
ent
leve
l of u
ncer
tain
ty
WIWIWI
WI
cognitive filters
horizon scanning
2.0
Interpretations are really importantMcArthur's Universal Corrective Map of the World
South
North
originality / importance / impact filters
horizon scanning
2.0
0 1 2 3 4 5
SSH-25
SSH-24
SSH-23
SSH-22
SSH-21
SSH-20
SSH-19
SSH-18
SSH-17
SSH-16
SSH-15
SSH-14
SSH-13
SSH-12
SSH-11
SSH-10
SSH-09
SSH-08
SSH-07
SSH-06
SSH-05
SSH-04
SSH-03
SSH-02
SSH-01
3.8
3.0
1.8
3.7
2.7
3.2
2.3
2.6
3.2
3.8
3.1
2.6
4.6
3.1
2.3
2.8
2.1
2.6
2.9
2.8
4.0
3.3
2.6
1.9
3.4
Originality
0 1 2 3 4
SSH-25
SSH-24
SSH-23
SSH-22
SSH-21
SSH-20
SSH-19
SSH-18
SSH-17
SSH-16
SSH-15
SSH-14
SSH-13
SSH-12
SSH-11
SSH-10
SSH-09
SSH-08
SSH-07
SSH-06
SSH-05
SSH-04
SSH-03
SSH-02
SSH-01
2.8
2.2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.2
1.8
2.1
2.6
2.9
2.2
1.6
2.0
2.2
2.3
2.2
2.6
1.6
1.4
3.0
2.0
1.9
1.7
2.6
2.2
Importance for Europe
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
SSH-25
SSH-24
SSH-23
SSH-22
SSH-21
SSH-20
SSH-19
SSH-18
SSH-17
SSH-16
SSH-15
SSH-14
SSH-13
SSH-12
SSH-11
SSH-10
SSH-09
SSH-08
SSH-07
SSH-06
SSH-05
SSH-04
SSH-03
SSH-02
SSH-01
0.6
0.6
0.6
1.2
1.4
1.0
0.8
0.3
0.8
0.8
1.0
0.6
0.8
0.8
0.6
1.0
0.6
0.4
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.8
0.7
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.8
1.1
1.3
1.2
1.9
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.4
1.8
1.2
1.7
2.0
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.9
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.7
1.1
1.0
0.6
0.9
1.0
0.8
1.0
0.7
1.1
0.6
1.1
0.7
0.8
1.2
1.0
1.6
0.9
0.9
0.7
0.7
1.3
1.6
1.4
0.7
1.3
0.7
1.6
1.1
1.4
1.4
0.8
1.4
1.2
0.4
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.7
0.8
1.7
0.9
1.2
1.3
0.7
1.3
1.1
0.7
1.4
0.9
1.6
1.9
1.3
1.9
0.3
0.7
1.2
0.4
0.4
0.8
2.0
1.2
0.7
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.4
1.2
0.3
0.6
0.7
1.9
0.7
0.6
0.4
0.9
0.4
1.6
0.9
1.0
1.4
0.6
1.0
1.0
1.3
1.3
1.9
1.2
1.2
1.0
1.0
1.3
1.1
1.0
1.1
1.0
1.9
2.0
1.0
0.4
1.6
0.9
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.3
1.2
0.3
1.2
0.3
0.6
0.4
1.1
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.8
0.3
0.4
0.6
0.9
0.4
1.0
0.4
1.9
0.4
0.4
0.6
0.3
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.6
0.4
0.6
1.4
0.4
0.6
0.6
0.3
0.4
0.6
0.8
0.4
0.6
0.7
0.6
0.7
Impacts of iKNOW SSH Wild Cards
infrastructures
people’s lives
legislation & regulation
economy & business
defence & security
governance & politics
environment & ecosystems
science & technology
SSH-02: Pay as you pollute (Individual and collective trade of pollution credits)
SSH-06: Major EU state elects neo fascist leader
originality / importance / impact filters
horizon scanning
2.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
infrastructures
people’s lives
legislation &
regulation
economy & business
defence & security
governance & politics
environment &
ecosystems
science & technology
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
infrastructures
people’s lives
legislation &
regulation
economy & business
defence & security
governance & politics
environment &
ecosystems
science & technology
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
infrastructures
people’s lives
legislation &
regulation
economy & business
defence & security
governance & politics
environment &
ecosystems
science & technology
SSH
ENV NANO
expert opinion filters
horizon scanning
2.0
DelphiLikelihood
+Importance
+Impact
+Desirability
+Wildness
+RTD Strategies
+Signals (existing & future)
…the changing world of…
• infrastructures (physical & virtual)
• People’s lives (social interactions, health & safety)
• Legislation & regulation
• Economy & business
• Defence & security
• Government & politics
• Environment & ecosystems
• Science & technology (knowledge dynamics)
WI-WE analysis can help us understand…
A changing world
infrastructures
www.iknowfutures.eu socio-economic sciences and humanities research
?
A changing world
People’s lives
www.iknowfutures.eu socio-economic sciences and humanities research
A changing world
Legislation and regulation
www.iknowfutures.eu socio-economic sciences and humanities research
Patents
A changing world
Economy and business
www.iknowfutures.eu socio-economic sciences and humanities research
A changing world
Defence and Security
www.iknowfutures.eu socio-economic sciences and humanities research
A changing world
Government and Politics
www.iknowfutures.eu socio-economic sciences and humanities research
Cold War
From 6in 1950s
…to 27in 2007
…?
A changing world
Environment & ecosystems
Global Warming Continental drift
A changing world
Science & technology (knowledge dynamics)
ExplorationS&T
Innovation
www.iknowfutures.eu socio-economic sciences and humanities research
Penicillin
communication (1 /7)
horizon scanning
2.0
topWi
keywords
topWe
keywords
topWi-We
keywords
communication (2 /7)
horizon scanning
2.0
newface
communication (3 /7)
horizon scanning
2.0
rating favorites+
private notes+
user profile stats+
quick / easy / advance scan+
newsletters+
and more!
communication (4 /7)
horizon scanning
2.0
type of issue+
theme+
occurrence/impact+
headline/title+
date of creation+
progress status
communication (5 /7)
horizon scanning
2.0
communication (6 /7)
horizon scanning
2.0
communication (7 /7)
horizon scanning
2.0
1 Water security / vulnerability
2 Energy security / vulnerability
3 Diseases / health and well being
4 Sustainability / turbulence / resilience
5 Ageing / youth and demographic tension
6 Food security / diet & culture
7 Globalization vs. localization
8 Social cohesion / alienation
9 Techno security / hazard & risk
10 Behavioural change / inertia
11 Knowledge and technology sharing / asymmetry
12 Work-Life balance / mental health
13 Ethics/abuse of future S&T developments
14 Crime & corruption/justice & transparency
15 Governance and democracy / Citizens' trust in governments
16 Coexistence / conflict
17 Social pathologies / norms
18 Social exclusion / Poverty & affluence
19 Prosperity/economic & political stability
20 Urbanization / counter-urbanization
Problem - and Solution -oriented focused on Grand Challenges
exploitation
horizon scanning
2.0
imaginary call for proposals
The main contribution
is HOWnot WHAT
prototype
interconnecting knowledge(convergence-interdisciplinary)
new research questions
new research agendas
impact on Grand Challenges
identification of problems
identification of solutions
relevance to EU research
sense-making
pattern recognition
emerging issues
informing policy
possible futures
www. iknowfutures .eu
Thank youThank youThank youThank youRafael PopperRafael PopperRafael PopperRafael Popper
on behalf of the iKNOW Teamon behalf of the iKNOW Teamon behalf of the iKNOW Teamon behalf of the iKNOW Team