pert master - risk analysis tool

Primavera PERT Master –

The Risk Analysis Tool

Presentation Agenda• What is PERT Master ?• Project Risk Management Concepts• Introductory Demonstrations– Importing from Primavera– Quick Risk Templates– Running a Risk Analysis– Risk Register with schedule

• Advanced Risk Management– Schedule cost loading techniques– Probabilistic cash flow and profitability breakeven

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What is PERT Master ?

• PERT Master Focus– Specialist in Project Risk Management– Full Lifecycle risk solution– Faithful to project scheduling

• PERT Master Vision– “Improved decision making

through project intelligence”

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Management Reserve

Mitigation Cost/Effort

Contingency

Budget / Schedule Estimate

Maximize Profit

Tota

l Pro

ject

Cos

t

“Strategic Decisions”

“Maximize Return”

“Proper Allocation”

“Minimize Uncertainty”

Life Value Proposition

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•High estimate uncertainty•Little Known about risk events

SANCTION

Alternative selection (rig

A/B/C, own)

-15% to +30% Estimate

Capital Investment risk

analysis

PHASE 2

FEED Front End Engineering

Design

+/-10% Estimate

Schedule based cost risk analysis

PHASE 3

Execution Detailed Eng. &

Procurement

+/- 3% Estimate

Risk event / register analysis

PHASE 4

Opportunity (e.g. oil field)

Wild Guess (WAG)

Operations Detailed Eng. &

Procurement

No Estimate Uncertainty

Risk event monitoring

PHASE 1 PHASE 5

Market/Investment risk analysis

“DOING RIGHT PROJECTS” “DOING PROJECTS RIGHT”PLAN YOUR WORK WORK YOUR PLAN

•Estimate uncertainty – Low•Discrete risk events

Life Value Proposition

04/28/23

•High estimate uncertainty•Little Known about risk events

SANCTION

Alternative selection (rig

A/B/C, own)

-15% to +30% Estimate

Capital Investment risk

analysis

PHASE 2

FEED Front End Engineering

Design

+/-10% Estimate

Schedule based cost risk analysis

PHASE 3

Execution Detailed Eng. &

Procurement

+/- 3% Estimate

Risk event / register analysis

PHASE 4

Opportunity (e.g. oil field)

WAG

Operations Detailed Eng. &

Procurement

No Estimate Uncertainty

Risk event monitoring

PHASE 1 PHASE 5

Market/Investment risk analysis

“DOING RIGHT PROJECTS” “DOING PROJECTS RIGHT”

PLAN YOUR WORK WORK YOUR PLAN

•Estimate uncertainty – Low•Discrete risk events

CORPORATE REVENUE ANALYSIS

PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS PROJECT ANALYSIS

Risk Vs Schedule

• Realistic /Most Likely

• Aggressive / Optimistic

• Cautious / Pessimistic

• Scale to Fit

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Types of Risks• Uncertainty

– PERT Master handles uncertainty by using three point

estimate distributions minimum, most likely and maximum

• Risk Events

– PERT Master handles risk events by using risk register to

enter possible events along with estimates of each one’s

probability and potential impacts on duration, cost and

project quality

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Uncertainty + Risk Events = Total Risk Exposure

Types of Risk - Uncertainty

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Duration/Cost

E.g. How long does it take to do wiring?

Types of Risk

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Activity A

?Activity C

Activity BE.g. Do we need to replace old wiring?

Branching – Probabilistic & Conditional

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Scenario: Renovate the Premises– Remove wiring (50% probability)– Repair wiring (40% probability)– Install new wiring (10% probability)

Template Quick Risk

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Types Of Risks - Risk Events

• Single Impact

• Series of Impact

• Multiple exclusive impacts

• Multiple impacts to multiple activities

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Risk Register

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Risk Register

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Monte Carlo Simulation

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7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17Min Likely Max

• Range forms an envelope• One segment is selected for each envelope• Hidden critical paths revealed

Monte Carlo Simulation

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7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17Min Likely Max

• Range forms an envelope• One segment is selected for each envelope• Hidden critical paths revealed

ITERATION

123456789

10 DAYS9 DAYS

14 DAYS17 DAYS

11 DAYS7

DAYS10 DAYS

12 DAYS6 DAYS

…

PERT Master Risk Analysis Methodology• Risk Ready State

– Schedule : Sound logic– Scheduling errors

• Risk Inputs– Estimate Uncertainty: “Quick Risk”– Risk Events: risk register

• Risk Impacts– Map risks to tasks

• Risk Analysis– Monte Carlo Simulation– Risk hot spots

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PERT Master Risk Analysis Methodology

• Risk Response– Determination of Contingency– Mitigation Scenarios– Probabilistic cashflow

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Plan Validation: Schedule Check

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Initial Risk Inputs – Quick Risk Analysis

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Accuracy with Ease

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Risk Outputs

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