permafrost? arctic change · 2020. 10. 7. · ipcc (intergovernmental panel on climate change)...
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Permafrost? Arctic Change
Bob Hollister (GVSU Biology)
Arctic Ecology Program www.gvsu.edu/aep
Importance of the Arctic
Observed Change
My Research
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2001.
Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 10 12 oC
Predicted ANNUAL Temperature Increase in 210090N
60
30
0
30
60
90S180 120W 60W 0 60E 120E 180
Why?Warming
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2001.
Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 10 12 oC
Predicted ANNUAL Temperature Increase in 210090N
60
30
0
30
60
90S180 120W 60W 0 60E 120E 180
Why?Warming
Sea Ice (end of the summer)
Fourth National Climate Assessment 2018
Observed Change
Safety on the Ice for local traditions?
US National Climate Assessment 2014
Ice Loss from Greenland & Antarctica
Observed Change
Which do you expect to melt faster?
Thin glacierThick glacier
Greenland Ice Flows
Glacier
Moraine
Thin Glacier
Glacier
Moraine
Thick Glacier
warm salty
Glacier
Moraine
Thick Glacier
warm salty
Rapid Melting
Rapid Retreat
Jacobshavns Isbrae
Greenland
Russel Huff, Univ. of
Colorado
below sea level
West
Ant.
East
Ant.
Mostly below sea level
Antarctica
0 20 40 60 80
Meters of Sea Level
Antarctica
Greenland
Glaciers/IceCaps
Sea Level Equivalent
East West
Sea Level Equivalent of Ice Sheets
Land lost by 1m rise in Sea Level
Source: CReSIS and NASA
Permafrost – frozen ground
Distribution of PermafrostDistribution of Permafrost
Projected loss of 60-90% by 2100
Drunken Forest
Anisimov & Reneva (2006) Ambio:35:169-175
Damaged Buildings
Loss of Lakes and Ponds In Alaska
Copper River Basin 1985 Copper River Basin 1995
Observed Change
Importance of the Arctic
Simplified Energy Movement
Hot
Cold
NCADAC v. 11 Jan 2013
“Polar Vortex”
Albedo
Positive Feed Back 1:Less snow → Warmer → Less snow
Positive Feed Back 2:Taller plants → Warmer → Taller plants
C.E. Tweedie
Carbon Release
Positive Feed Back 3:Carbon release→ Warmer → Carbon release
My Research
Latitude
1oC ~ 150 km
2oF ~ 100 miles
Tundra ?
Current biomes Future biomes
Climate Warming
Vegetation Change
Plant Measures
No.
of F
low
ers
No.
of F
low
ers
Day of the Year
Cassiope tetragona Utqiaġvik
No.
of F
low
ers
Day of the Year
Warmed
Cassiope tetragona Utqiaġvik
Infl
ore
scen
ce L
en
gth
(cm
)
Plant size (Carex aquatilis)
Annual Heat Sums (Thawing Degree Days)
Infl
ore
scen
ce L
en
gth
(cm
)
Plant size (Carex aquatilis)
Each point is a year(at a site in a treatment)
Annual Heat Sums (Thawing Degree Days)
Infl
ore
scen
ce L
en
gth
(cm
)
Plant size (Carex aquatilis)
Annual Heat Sums (Thawing Degree Days)
Infl
ore
scen
ce L
en
gth
(cm
)
Plant size (Carex aquatilis)
Warmed
Open
Community composition
Utqiaġvik Dry Site
Ambient (control plots)
Utqiaġvik Dry Site
WarmedAmbient (control plots) (experimental plots)
Utqiaġvik Dry Site
WarmedAmbient (control plots) (experimental plots)
Visit www.gvsu.edu/aep
/itex
SummaryChanges Occurring
3 Feedbacks
Global Implications
People that made this work possible
Hana Christoffersen
Katlyn Betway
Jake Harris
Tim Botting
Jessica Gregory
Robert Barrett
Jeremy May
Jenny Liebig
Steve Rewa
Brian Noyle
Lisa Walker
Robert Hollister
PIs (Current & Retired):Robert Hollister (GVSU)
Steve Oberbauer (FIU)
Craig Tweedie (UTEP)
Jeff Welker (UAA)
Patrick Webber
Fritz Nelson
Marilyn Walker
Undergraduate Field Assistants (at GVSU & MSU):Nicole Foy
Nathan Gimby
Hana Christoffersen
Kailey Keenan-Whittemore
Ellen Audia
Caleb Krueger
Katlyn Betway
Jacob Rumschlag
Kelsey Mannard
Shelia Wald
Ashley Brecken
Amanda Hennells
Michaela Clingaman
AJ Smith
Chase Baldwin
Kelsey Kremers
Tim Botting
Julein Nadeau
Jenny Liebig
Jean Galang
Jeremy May
Michael Lothschutz
Robert Slider
Amanda Synder
Dustin Bronson
Jean Van Dalen
Andrew Johnson
Amy Wren
Devan Berry
Christin Kolarchick
Josh Picotte
Meghan Yurenka
Christine Jimenez
Frank Lepera
Brandon Baker
Elise Poole
Kathryn Wilkinson
Christie Klimas
Mary Grace Villanueva
Theresa Thomas
Anna Noson
David Conlin
Lisa Koch
Bennett Weinstein
Ian Ramjohn
Graduate Students (at GVSU & MSU):
Arctic Ecology Program
Greening TrendObserved Change
• Carbon flux
Ecosystem Measurements
• Carbon flux
Ecosystem Measurements Utqiaġvik Dry Site
(Net Ecosystem Exchange)
• Carbon flux
Ecosystem Measurements Utqiaġvik Dry Site
(Net Ecosystem Exchange)
Warmed
• Carbon flux
Ecosystem Measurements Utqiaġvik Dry Site
(Net Ecosystem Exchange)
Warmed
• Carbon flux
Ecosystem Measurements Utqiaġvik Dry Site
(Net Ecosystem Exchange)
WarmedSwitches to a CO2 Source
• Carbon flux
Ecosystem Measurements Utqiaġvik Dry Site
(Net Ecosystem Exchange)
?
WarmedSwitches to a CO2 Source
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