Permafrost? Arctic Change

Bob Hollister (GVSU Biology)

Arctic Ecology Program www.gvsu.edu/aep

Importance of the Arctic

Observed Change

My Research

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2001.

Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 10 12 oC

Predicted ANNUAL Temperature Increase in 210090N

60

30

0

30

60

90S180 120W 60W 0 60E 120E 180

Why?Warming

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2001.

Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 10 12 oC

Predicted ANNUAL Temperature Increase in 210090N

60

30

0

30

60

90S180 120W 60W 0 60E 120E 180

Why?Warming

Sea Ice (end of the summer)

Fourth National Climate Assessment 2018

Observed Change

Safety on the Ice for local traditions?

US National Climate Assessment 2014

Ice Loss from Greenland & Antarctica

Observed Change

Which do you expect to melt faster?

Thin glacierThick glacier

Greenland Ice Flows

Glacier

Moraine

Thin Glacier

Glacier

Moraine

Thick Glacier

warm salty

Glacier

Moraine

Thick Glacier

warm salty

Rapid Melting

Rapid Retreat

Jacobshavns Isbrae

Greenland

Russel Huff, Univ. of

Colorado

below sea level

West

Ant.

East

Ant.

Mostly below sea level

Antarctica

0 20 40 60 80

Meters of Sea Level

Antarctica

Greenland

Glaciers/IceCaps

Sea Level Equivalent

East West

Sea Level Equivalent of Ice Sheets

Land lost by 1m rise in Sea Level

Source: CReSIS and NASA

Permafrost – frozen ground

Distribution of PermafrostDistribution of Permafrost

Projected loss of 60-90% by 2100

Drunken Forest

Anisimov & Reneva (2006) Ambio:35:169-175

Damaged Buildings

Loss of Lakes and Ponds In Alaska

Copper River Basin 1985 Copper River Basin 1995

Observed Change

Importance of the Arctic

Simplified Energy Movement

Hot

Cold

NCADAC v. 11 Jan 2013

“Polar Vortex”

Albedo

Positive Feed Back 1:Less snow → Warmer → Less snow

Positive Feed Back 2:Taller plants → Warmer → Taller plants

C.E. Tweedie

Carbon Release

Positive Feed Back 3:Carbon release→ Warmer → Carbon release

My Research

Latitude

1oC ~ 150 km

2oF ~ 100 miles

Tundra ?

Current biomes Future biomes

Climate Warming

Vegetation Change

Plant Measures

No.

of F

low

ers

No.

of F

low

ers

Day of the Year

Cassiope tetragona Utqiaġvik

No.

of F

low

ers

Day of the Year

Warmed

Cassiope tetragona Utqiaġvik

Infl

ore

scen

ce L

en

gth

(cm

)

Plant size (Carex aquatilis)

Annual Heat Sums (Thawing Degree Days)

Infl

ore

scen

ce L

en

gth

(cm

)

Plant size (Carex aquatilis)

Each point is a year(at a site in a treatment)

Annual Heat Sums (Thawing Degree Days)

Infl

ore

scen

ce L

en

gth

(cm

)

Plant size (Carex aquatilis)

Annual Heat Sums (Thawing Degree Days)

Infl

ore

scen

ce L

en

gth

(cm

)

Plant size (Carex aquatilis)

Warmed

Open

Community composition

Utqiaġvik Dry Site

Ambient (control plots)

Utqiaġvik Dry Site

WarmedAmbient (control plots) (experimental plots)

Utqiaġvik Dry Site

WarmedAmbient (control plots) (experimental plots)

Visit www.gvsu.edu/aep

/itex

SummaryChanges Occurring

3 Feedbacks

Global Implications

People that made this work possible

Hana Christoffersen

Katlyn Betway

Jake Harris

Tim Botting

Jessica Gregory

Robert Barrett

Jeremy May

Jenny Liebig

Steve Rewa

Brian Noyle

Lisa Walker

Robert Hollister

PIs (Current & Retired):Robert Hollister (GVSU)

Steve Oberbauer (FIU)

Craig Tweedie (UTEP)

Jeff Welker (UAA)

Patrick Webber

Fritz Nelson

Marilyn Walker

Undergraduate Field Assistants (at GVSU & MSU):Nicole Foy

Nathan Gimby

Hana Christoffersen

Kailey Keenan-Whittemore

Ellen Audia

Caleb Krueger

Katlyn Betway

Jacob Rumschlag

Kelsey Mannard

Shelia Wald

Ashley Brecken

Amanda Hennells

Michaela Clingaman

AJ Smith

Chase Baldwin

Kelsey Kremers

Tim Botting

Julein Nadeau

Jenny Liebig

Jean Galang

Jeremy May

Michael Lothschutz

Robert Slider

Amanda Synder

Dustin Bronson

Jean Van Dalen

Andrew Johnson

Amy Wren

Devan Berry

Christin Kolarchick

Josh Picotte

Meghan Yurenka

Christine Jimenez

Frank Lepera

Brandon Baker

Elise Poole

Kathryn Wilkinson

Christie Klimas

Mary Grace Villanueva

Theresa Thomas

Anna Noson

David Conlin

Lisa Koch

Bennett Weinstein

Ian Ramjohn

Graduate Students (at GVSU & MSU):

Arctic Ecology Program

Greening TrendObserved Change

• Carbon flux

Ecosystem Measurements

• Carbon flux

Ecosystem Measurements Utqiaġvik Dry Site

(Net Ecosystem Exchange)

• Carbon flux

Ecosystem Measurements Utqiaġvik Dry Site

(Net Ecosystem Exchange)

Warmed

• Carbon flux

Ecosystem Measurements Utqiaġvik Dry Site

(Net Ecosystem Exchange)

Warmed

• Carbon flux

Ecosystem Measurements Utqiaġvik Dry Site

(Net Ecosystem Exchange)

WarmedSwitches to a CO2 Source

• Carbon flux

Ecosystem Measurements Utqiaġvik Dry Site

(Net Ecosystem Exchange)

?

WarmedSwitches to a CO2 Source