optimize tomorrow today. tm cost and affordability approach at development planning stage 1

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Cost and Affordability approach at Development Planning stage

Optimize tomorrow today.TM

Significant Technical Issues Pre-MS A

TechnologyDevelopment

Materiel Solution Analysis

MDDStrategic Guidance

Joint Concepts

AEngineering

AnalysisAnalysis of

Alternatives

ASRCBA ICD

ISSUE POTENTIAL IMPACTS

•Lack of consistent technical engagement with the operational user to ensure:

• Awareness of potential solutions• Understanding of user performance needs• Opportunities for incremental capability

delivery

• Narrow AoA scope, missed solution opportunities• Acquisition cost/schedule growth due to lack of understanding of the CONOPS

• Program-focused analysis, when solutions will impact broad sets of systems and SoS

• Delivery of capability that will not integrate, or that has reduced benefit because of external system issues

• Lack of consistent technical engagement prior to and following the AoA

• Immature alternatives enter the AoA• Lack of engineering on preferred solutions to prepare for MS A and TD Phase

NDIA SE Division Meeting February 17, 2010

Mr. Michael Duffey Deputy Director, Development Planning Office of the Director for Systems Analysis

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Affordability analysis:

Analysis can focus on the subsystem, system, and mission levels and is performed for the entire program life cycle. Typical products of an affordability analysis include cost-effectiveness analyses, risk analyses, and total ownership cost estimates. An affordability analysis synthesizes information from three basic areas: mission analysis, technical analysis, and cost analysis.”

Affordability Analysis for DARPA Programs, William M. Kroshl and Peter P. Pandolfini Johns Hopkins APL Technical Digest

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Affordability Process:

Cost Analysis

Risk Analysis

Architecture(PBS – Tech Baseline

Mission –Operational

Context

PerformanceAnalysis

Schedule Analysis

Analyze IssuesModify Baseline

Trade-OffAnalysis

Best Value

Iterative Cycle

Completed

Yes

No

Value Framework (KPP- MOE-TPM)

Missions, Scenarios, & Capabilities Needed

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System Cost Drivers:

• Project Management

– Assembly

• System Components : H/W, S/W, IT and others

Development Production O&S

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Project Management: Systems Engineering on a project

• Project Initiation and Planning

• Project Management and Control

• Quality Assurance Management

• Configuration Management

• Vendor Management

• Documentation

Systems Engineering e.g. is consumed by these activities

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Project Management Cost Drivers:

• Operating Specification

• Multiple Site Development

• Vendor Interface Complexity

• Project Complexity factor

• # of Requirements

• Requirement Stability

• # of Interfaces

• # of Vendors

• # of Operational Scenarios

Quantities / Schedule

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Project Management Cost Drivers Sensitivity:

. Reliability

. Portability

. Security

. Documentation

. Testing

Multiple Site Development

Co

st

. Single Location

. Multiple Locations

. International Locations

. Quality of Communication

Operating Specification

Co

st

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Assembly cost Drivers

• Software External Integration

• Hardware Platform Stability

• Hardware Platform Availability

• Number of Unique Hardware Platforms

• System Complexity

• Hardware External Integration Complexity

• Engineering Complexity

• Development Engineering for Structure

• Development Engineering for Electronics

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What information is available?

A

JCIDS

User Needs

Joint Concepts

Capabilities - Based Assessment

OSD/JCS COCOM FCB

Strategic Guidance

MaterielSolutionAnalysisICD

MDD

Technology Opportunities & Resources

• System Capability Required

– Speed , Range, Weight?

• Historical analogues system costs?

• Organizational/Contractor performance data?

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Capability based estimation

1. Historical Data

2. Input for analysis

3. Best fit analysis

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SoS consideration

12

Cost of SoS Program Management and Requirements

Cost for interlinking and interfacing multiple constituent systems

Fraction or whole of constituent system cost

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Cont.. SoS consideration

13

Cost for development, production and maintenance of Integration equipment

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Risk Methodology:

Pre-Concept Concept Design Implementation

Pessimistic

Most Likely

Optimistic

“Immature” Technology

“Known” Technology

“Established” Technology

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Cost Uncertainty Variance Analysis on Regression

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Performance Analysis:

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Schedule Analysis:

• Estimated schedule : derived from effort estimates

• Schedule compression and expansion effects

• Schedule Uncertainty

• Acceptable levels of uncertainty (cost, schedule and cost & schedule) at different phases

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What MDA needs for decision making?

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What is expected from Systems Engineering on Cost and Affordability at Development Planning?

• Trade studies?• Material trades• Design trades• Country of manufacturing

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Value Proposition:

• Cost is only one side of coin, other side is benefits

• Benefits consideration to include KPPs