optimize tomorrow today. tm cost and affordability approach at development planning stage 1
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Optimize tomorrow today.TM
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Cost and Affordability approach at Development Planning stage
Optimize tomorrow today.TM
Significant Technical Issues Pre-MS A
TechnologyDevelopment
Materiel Solution Analysis
MDDStrategic Guidance
Joint Concepts
AEngineering
AnalysisAnalysis of
Alternatives
ASRCBA ICD
ISSUE POTENTIAL IMPACTS
•Lack of consistent technical engagement with the operational user to ensure:
• Awareness of potential solutions• Understanding of user performance needs• Opportunities for incremental capability
delivery
• Narrow AoA scope, missed solution opportunities• Acquisition cost/schedule growth due to lack of understanding of the CONOPS
• Program-focused analysis, when solutions will impact broad sets of systems and SoS
• Delivery of capability that will not integrate, or that has reduced benefit because of external system issues
• Lack of consistent technical engagement prior to and following the AoA
• Immature alternatives enter the AoA• Lack of engineering on preferred solutions to prepare for MS A and TD Phase
NDIA SE Division Meeting February 17, 2010
Mr. Michael Duffey Deputy Director, Development Planning Office of the Director for Systems Analysis
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Affordability analysis:
Analysis can focus on the subsystem, system, and mission levels and is performed for the entire program life cycle. Typical products of an affordability analysis include cost-effectiveness analyses, risk analyses, and total ownership cost estimates. An affordability analysis synthesizes information from three basic areas: mission analysis, technical analysis, and cost analysis.”
Affordability Analysis for DARPA Programs, William M. Kroshl and Peter P. Pandolfini Johns Hopkins APL Technical Digest
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Affordability Process:
Cost Analysis
Risk Analysis
Architecture(PBS – Tech Baseline
Mission –Operational
Context
PerformanceAnalysis
Schedule Analysis
Analyze IssuesModify Baseline
Trade-OffAnalysis
Best Value
Iterative Cycle
Completed
Yes
No
Value Framework (KPP- MOE-TPM)
Missions, Scenarios, & Capabilities Needed
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System Cost Drivers:
• Project Management
– Assembly
• System Components : H/W, S/W, IT and others
Development Production O&S
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Project Management: Systems Engineering on a project
• Project Initiation and Planning
• Project Management and Control
• Quality Assurance Management
• Configuration Management
• Vendor Management
• Documentation
Systems Engineering e.g. is consumed by these activities
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Project Management Cost Drivers:
• Operating Specification
• Multiple Site Development
• Vendor Interface Complexity
• Project Complexity factor
• # of Requirements
• Requirement Stability
• # of Interfaces
• # of Vendors
• # of Operational Scenarios
Quantities / Schedule
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Project Management Cost Drivers Sensitivity:
. Reliability
. Portability
. Security
. Documentation
. Testing
Multiple Site Development
Co
st
. Single Location
. Multiple Locations
. International Locations
. Quality of Communication
Operating Specification
Co
st
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Assembly cost Drivers
• Software External Integration
• Hardware Platform Stability
• Hardware Platform Availability
• Number of Unique Hardware Platforms
• System Complexity
• Hardware External Integration Complexity
• Engineering Complexity
• Development Engineering for Structure
• Development Engineering for Electronics
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What information is available?
A
JCIDS
User Needs
Joint Concepts
Capabilities - Based Assessment
OSD/JCS COCOM FCB
Strategic Guidance
MaterielSolutionAnalysisICD
MDD
Technology Opportunities & Resources
• System Capability Required
– Speed , Range, Weight?
• Historical analogues system costs?
• Organizational/Contractor performance data?
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Capability based estimation
1. Historical Data
2. Input for analysis
3. Best fit analysis
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SoS consideration
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Cost of SoS Program Management and Requirements
Cost for interlinking and interfacing multiple constituent systems
Fraction or whole of constituent system cost
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Cont.. SoS consideration
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Cost for development, production and maintenance of Integration equipment
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Risk Methodology:
Pre-Concept Concept Design Implementation
Pessimistic
Most Likely
Optimistic
“Immature” Technology
“Known” Technology
“Established” Technology
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Cost Uncertainty Variance Analysis on Regression
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Schedule Analysis:
• Estimated schedule : derived from effort estimates
• Schedule compression and expansion effects
• Schedule Uncertainty
• Acceptable levels of uncertainty (cost, schedule and cost & schedule) at different phases
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What is expected from Systems Engineering on Cost and Affordability at Development Planning?
• Trade studies?• Material trades• Design trades• Country of manufacturing
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Value Proposition:
• Cost is only one side of coin, other side is benefits
• Benefits consideration to include KPPs