opening & key note - modern management methods uk 2013 - kanban evolutionary management

dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.

Presenter:David J. AndersonCEO Lean Kanban

Lean Kanban UKLondon

October 2013Release 1.0

Why Modern?Why now?

Modern in Music

Progressive but not Modern!

Modern

Modern in Art

Photography

Impressionism – a new beginning

Modern in Science

Newtonian physics was out and the era of Quantum Mechanics arrived

Werner Heisenberg

JamesClerk-Maxwell

Albert Einstein

Niels Bohr

The Drucker Challenge

Drucker’s Challenge in 1999

Where might a 50x improvement come from?

Delivered

Poolof

Committed

ReadyFor

Delivery

Lead Time

Ongoing

Development Testing

Done VerificationAcceptance3 3

Waiting Waiting WaitingWorking

* Hakan Forss, Lean Kanban France, Oct 2013** 2% reported by Zsolt Fabok, Lean Kanban France, Oct 2012

Working

∞∞

Flow efficiency measures the percentage of total lead time is spent actually adding value (or

knowledge) versus waitingFlow efficiency% = Work Time x 100%

Lead TimeFlow efficiencies of 1-5% are

commonly reported*, ** Multitasking means time spent in working columns is often waiting

Waiting

Modern Management

We stand on the verge of a revolution in modern management

Breakthroughs in Understanding humans

The Quantum Era of Management

New technologies enable a new form

Social Capital Reaps Rewards

The System & Environment Matter

Conclusion

The Form Must Change!

Thank you!

Presenter:David J. AndersonCEO Lean Kanban

Lean Kanban UKLondon

October 2013Release 1.0

Kanbanand evolutionary management

Bruce Lee’s Journey in Martial Arts

Bruce Lee rejected traditional teaching and styles of Chinese martial arts

Monkey

Mantis

Kung Fu Panda simplified the art to only four styles

There are in fact very many styles…

“Dry land swimming” provides a false sense of capability

Lee wanted to start from first principles and core concepts

*Apparently still called the Five Ways, there are actually now six **with the later inclusion of SAA**The fact that The Five Ways has six elements is evidence of evolution in action***Incorporated core ideas such as "center line" and single fluid motion from Wing Chun and parrying from Epee Fencing********Not a Chinese Martial Art and hence evidence of "no limitation as limitation"

Five* Ways of Attack***• Single Direct Attack (SDA)• Attack By Combination (ABC)• Progressive Indirect Attack

(PIA)• (Hand) Immobilization Attack

(HIA)• Attack by Drawing (ABD)• Single Angle Attack (SAA)

Lee’s approach still needed a name

Jeet Kune Do

Using no way as way

Having no limitation as limitation

Jeet Kune Do encourages development of a uniquely personal style

"absorb that which is useful“

discard the remainder

Training with an opponent provides the core feedback loop to drive adaptation

Kata are not adaptive

Martial Arts viewed through a Cynefin* Lens

Simple

ComplicatedComplex

Chaotic

Best Practice

Good PracticesEmergent Practices

Novel PracticesIndividual

PatternedStyles

Jeet KuneDo

*http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cynefin

Lee’s genius was recognizing hand-to-hand combat is an unordered problem

Motivation for the Kanban Method

Traditional Change is an A to B process

***either an internal process group or external consultants

CurrentProcess Future

Process

Defined

Designed

transition

* Value stream mapping, ** Theory of Constraints Thinking Processes

Change initiatives fail (even) more often than projects

Daniel Kahneman has given us a simple model for how we process information

Daniel Kahneman

System 1Sensory PerceptionPattern Matching

System 2Logical Inference

Engine

Learning byExperience

Learning from theory

FASTBut slow to learn

SLOWBut fast to learn

How we process change…

Daniel Kahneman

Silicon-basedlife form

Carbon-basedlife form

I logically evaluate change using System 2

I adapt quickly

I feel change emotionally using System 1

I adapt slowly

Adopting new processes challenges people psychologically & sociologically

The Kanban Method…

*also known as "kanban" in Chinese and in Japanese when written with Chinese characters

The Kanban Method is a new approach to improvement

Kanban is a

method

without methodology

Water flows around the rock

“be like water”

the rock represents resistance

The Kanban Method

Kanban should be like water*

* http://joecampbell.wordpress.com/2009/05/13/be-like-water/

Principles behind the Kanban Method

The Kanban Lens

6 Practices Enable Process Evolution

The Kanban Method

VisualizeLimit Work-in-progressManage FlowMake Policies ExplicitImplement Feedback LoopsImprove Collaboratively, Evolve Experimentally

(using models & the scientific method)

Start with what you do now

Fitness Criteria

Fitness criteria are metrics that measure observable external outcomes

Net Promoter Score is a Fitness Evaluator but is it the only metric we need?

Steve Denning

Net Promoter Score is a way of evaluating customer satisfaction

The problem with Net Promoter Score is that it doesn’t tell you what to do!

Can we be smarter by using better fitness criteria than NPS?

If we order a pizza we know what we care about…

If we need a medical procedure…

Validate Fitness Criteria with real customers

Which system is fitter?

5 10 15 20 25 30 40 45 55 65 More02468

101214

System A

Frequency

Lead Time (Days)

5 10 15 20 25 30 More0

System B

Frequency

Lead Time in Days

Mean 17 days Mean 12 days

Measuring delivery against expectation

5 10 15 20 25 30 40 45 55 65 More02468

101214

System A

Frequency

Lead Time (Days)

-25 -20 -5 0 5 10 20 30 35 40 More0

System A

Frequency

Lead Time Expectation Spread (Days)

5 10 15 20 25 30 More0

System B

Frequency

Lead Time in Days

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 More05

1015202530354045

System B

Frequency

Lead Time Expectation Spread (Days)

Mean 17 days Mean 12 days

System B is clearly fitter!

System B delivers 5/7 within expectationsSystem A only delivers 3/7 within expectations

Business Risks, Fitness Criteria & Classes of Service should all align

Assessing fitness to pursue ashort Shelf-Life strategy

Short(days, weeks,

months)

Medium(months,quarters,1-2 years)

Long(years,

decades)

Lead T

Business Agility

Frequent

Seldom

Frequent

Seldom

tabili

Are our business agility &

predictability fit enough for our

strategy?

Kanban system dynamics

If we plan to pursue short shelf-life opportunities, we must measure predictability, lead time, replenishment & delivery frequency as fitness criteria. Expectations are set based on our chosen strategy to pursue short

shelf-life opportunities

Evolutionary change has no defined end point

EvolvingProcess

Rollforward

Rollback

InitialProcess

Future process is emergent

EvaluateFitness

We don’t know the end-point but we do know our emergent

process is fitter!

Kanban viewed through a Cynefin* Lens

Simple

ComplicatedComplex

Chaotic

Best Practice

Good PracticesEmergent Practices

Novel PracticesSimpleKanbanSystem

DeepKanbanSystem

KanbanMethod

*http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cynefin

Unordereddomains

Kanban systems alone aren’t enough in the unordered domain

Ordereddomains

EnlightenmentReductionistPhilosophy

Deterministic

NewtonianPhysics

PragmaticHolistic

Philosophy

Probabilitic

QuantumMechanics

Multiple work typesMultiple classes of service

disorder

Single work typeSingle class of service

KanbanMethod

NotApplicable

Enabling Evolutionary Management

Institutionalize feedback systems to enable evolutionary change

OperationsReview

SystemCapability

Review

StandupMeeting

manager to subordinate(s) (both 1-1 and 1-team)

Disintermediate!Risks, fitness criteria & classes of service

should be explicit & transparent

OperationsReview

SystemCapability

Review

StandupMeeting

manager to subordinate(s) (both 1-1 and 1-team)

Expose risk, classes of service & fitness criteria

at all 3 levels of feedback

Lead timeQualityPredictability

Is there room for improvement?

Delivered

Poolof

Committed

ReadyFor

Delivery

Lead Time

Ongoing

Development Testing

Done VerificationAcceptance3 3

Waiting Waiting WaitingWorking

* Hakan Forss, Lean Kanban France, Oct 2013** 2% reported by Zsolt Fabok, Lean Kanban France, Oct 2012

Working

∞∞

Flow efficiency measures the percentage of total lead time is spent actually adding value (or

knowledge) versus waitingFlow efficiency% = Work Time x 100%

Lead TimeFlow efficiencies of 1-5% are

commonly reported*, ** Multitasking means time spent in working columns is often waiting

Waiting

Other metrics should only be used as input to models to drive improvement

http://www.klausleopold.com/2013/09/blocker-clusters-problems-are-not.html

Know why you are using a metric!

Conclusion

The future of creative knowledge work should be inspired by Bruce Lee & JKD

Train with live opponentsNo kata

No "dry land swimming“

Thank you!

David Anderson is a thought leader in managing creative knowledge workers. He is CEO of Lean Kanban Inc. a business franchising training & events globally with a vision of sustainable evolutionary approaches for improved service delivery & management in creative 21st Century industries.

He has 30 years experience in the high technology industry starting with computer games in the early 1980’s. He has led software teams delivering superior productivity and quality using innovative methods at large firms such as Sprint and Motorola.

David is the pioneer of the Kanban Method an evolutionary approach to improved service delivery and better business agility. His latest book is, Lessons in Agile Management – On the Road to Kanban.

He founded Lean Kanban University, the education division of Lean Kanban Inc, a trade association of member firms & franchisees dedicated to assuring high quality Kanban training through a worldwide network of accredited trainers offering classes based on a defined and peer reviewed curriculum.

The idea of Modern Management Methods was inspired by History of Modern Part 2 by Orchestral Maneuvers in the Dark.

Daniel S. Vacanti first suggested that the Kanban Method and related techniques of probabilistic forecasting, statistical methods, and both qualitative and quantitative risk management were creating a change in management methods of the same magnitude and of a similar nature to the shift from Newtonian physics to Quantum Mechanics.

Janice Linden-Reed assisted with photo editing for this presentation

Acknowledgements

Joe Campbell first blogged about the similarity in philosophy between the Kanban Method and the teachings of Bruce Lee. He coined the phrase “Kanban should be like water”.

The data on slides 60 & 61 was provided by Raymond Keating of CME Group.

My approach to change was framed by an observation from Peter Senge, “People do not resist change, they resist being changed!” He intuited resistance was rooted in identity.

The Cynefin Framework & “Safe-to-fail Experiment” originated with Dave Snowden.

Steve Denning proposed NPS as the only metric that matters in his book, “Radical Management.”

Acknowledgements

opening & key note - modern management methods uk 2013 - kanban evolutionary management

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