o ak r idge n ational l aboratory u. s. d epartment of e nergy 1 citizen information needs in...
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Citizen Information Needs In Chemical Incidents
John H. Sorensen
Distinguished R&D Staff
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Warning Response Research
Started in the 1950’s Driven by the shadow of nuclear war If we sound the sirens, what will people do? Series of studies - tornado, hurricane, flood,
explosion, air raid sirens, alien invasions Research expanded in 70’s and 80’s - volcano,
chemical, nuclear, tsunami, earthquake Research funding dies off in the mid-90s
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Warning/Risk Communication
Warning America: A State and Local Planning Guide
Are You Ready - CERT Preparedness Guide
Assessment of Research on Human Response to Warnings
Handbook on Disaster Research
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Five Key Elements of a WS
Preparedness and education
Risk identification and classification
Alert Notification Feedback,
monitoring, and evaluation
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Old Persuasive Communication Model
Source
Message
Channel
ReceiverConfirmRespond
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
New Communication Model
Communicator
FriendCoworker
Partner
CNN
TV
Internet
Cell Phone
Pager
Hot Line
Talk Radio
MayorFederal Government
Reverse911
NWR
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Differences
One way flow Single official
source Limited channels Attentive audience Control
information
Conversations Multiple sources Expanding
channels Occupied audience Manage
information
Old New
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Increasingly Difficult To Get People’s Attention
Increasing social isolation Increasing cultural and ethnic
diversity Aging population Inundation of information
Telemarketers Infomercials
Denial of risk Night-time issues
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Factors Working For and Against
For Visual and other
cues Family and network Female Younger Majority High SES Non-fatalistic
Against No cues Living alone and
isolated Male Elderly Minority Low SES Fatalistic
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
What Can You Do to Increase Response?
Manipulate content of warning messages Manipulate the style of warning messages Improve the message format Manipulate the warning source Use multiple channels for dissemination Issue frequent detailed messages Develop an intensive and ongoing public
education program
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Message Contents
A concise description of the hazard and impacts
The current and predicted location of the impacts (and location of no impacts)
What specific actions to take When to take those actions Sources of information
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Message Style
Clear: Worded in a manner that people understand
Specific: Contains precise information
Accurate: Even minor errors may cause problems
Certain: Is authoritative and confident
Consistent: Explains basis for change in information
Farragut, TN Train Derailment
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Use of Graphics
© 1999 Baron Services, Inc.
Common Practice Uncommon Practice
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Warning Myths
People panic when warned about an impending hazard
People will be confused if you give them too much information (KISS)
Warnings should be given by a single spokesperson
Cry wolf syndrome People remember different threat indicators People will automatically follow instructions in
a warning
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Panic
People panic when warned about a hazard “We didn’t issue a warning because we
did not want to scare the public and cause them to panic”
Panic has never occurred in response to a natural or technological disaster warning
Panic does occur in some emergencies - clear sign of threat, a narrow window of escape, not everyone will escape
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Providing Information
People will be confused if you give them too much information (KISS) Not selling them toothpaste People are information starved People want detailed information People want to hear it often People turn to other sources if they perceive
they are not getting enough information CNN viewers increase by 5-10x during a
disaster
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Single Spokesperson
Warnings should be given by a single spokesperson There is no one single public There is not one person who is credible to all
publics Need mix: officials, ARC, scientists, doctors Need multiple means of dissemination
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
False Alarms
Cry wolf It’s a fable and does not occur except in the
basement of psychology buildings People will respond to warnings even if they
have had false alarms Non-response is largely shaped by perceived
risk Exception: people will ignore sirens if they go
off frequently and for no reason
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Warning Indicators
People remember different threat indicators People rarely remember what different siren
signals such as wails, whoops, alternating tones, chiming tones or steady tones mean
People do not distinguish between advisories, watches, and warnings
Exception: when it becomes part of a culture (e.g. hurricane, workplace
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
People will automatically follow instructions in a warning
If at odds with other information
If not viewed as protective
If it does not make sense
If it is too expensive
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
WTC Evacuation
WTC 1 (first hit) WTC 2 (second hit) % Evacuated Deaths % Evacuated Deaths Above Impact 0 1,355 75 619 Below Impact 98.5 107 99.99 11
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Issues for Chemical Event Warnings
Rapid Onset Need Rapid
Warning High Uncertainty Shelter or
Evacuate Night-time Events
Chlorine Storage Facility, Atlanta, GA
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
West Helena Accident
Description of Survey Data Regarding The Chemical Repackaging Plant Accident, West Helena, Arkansas, Vogt, B. and J. Sorensen, Oak RidgeNational Laboratory, ORNL/TM-13722, 1999.
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
West Helena, AR Incident
Smoking package of Azinphos-methyl Firefighters respond at 1:10 p.m. 1:30 p.m. explosion occurs - killing 3 firefighters,
injuring 17 other Community warning issued Residents in 2 mi. zone told to evacuate Residents between 2-3 mi. told to shelter Residents allowed to return 10:00 p.m.
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Source of First Warning
36% by officials (police, fire, emergency services, sheriff)
25.6% by neighbor, friend, co-worker 20.8% by family member or relative 4.9% by media (television or radio) 9.6% (of 131 responses) received more
than one warning
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Timing of Warning Receipt
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 30 60 90 120 150 180
Time (min)
Perc
en
t W
arn
ed
15 min.100%
Helena
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Protective Action Compliance in West Helena Event
Evacuated Sheltered Neitherevac. orsheltered
Totalnumber
responsesEvacuation
area90%(87)
5%(5)
5%(5) 97
Shelteredarea
68%(18)
27%(7)
4%(1) 26
Percent oftotal
responses
85%(103)
10%(12)
5%(6) 123
Source: Vogt and Sorensen, 1999
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
3 0 02 4 01 8 01 2 06 0
0
20
40
60
80
100
Clear Time
Evacuation Time
Warning Time
HUMAN BEHAVIOR IN THE NANTICOTE EVACUATION
TIME
Cu
mu
lati
ve
Pe
rce
nt
1 am 2 am 3 am 4 am 5 am
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
.
2 4 01 8 01 2 06 0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4Siren (%)Route (%)Informal (%)Media (%)
Diffussion of Warning at Nanticoke
Time
P o r t i o n W a r n e d
1 am 2 am 3 am 4 am
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
3025201510500.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
SIRENS
TONE ALERT
TELEPHONE
MEDIA
SIRENS/TONE ALERTS
SIRENS/TELEPHONES
Time (min)
Po
rtio
n r
ec
eiv
ing
wa
rnin
gs
Diffusion Of Warnings
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Estimated Night-Time Warning Rates (15 min)
System Direct Notification (%)
With Informal (%)
Siren 10 dBC over ambient
35 46
Siren 20 over ambient
45 57
Tone Alert Radio (weather radio)
70 80
Sirens (10dbC) and Tone Alert
80 88
Enhanced Tone Alert Radio
90 95
Sirens (10dbC) and Enhanced Tone Alert Radio
94 97
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
No Research On Effectiveness of New Technologies InEmergencies
Reverse 911 Tone Alert Radio Cell Phones IP Devices - email,
PDA, etc Devices for Disability
Impaired
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Observations
US lacks a national warning strategy Community warning systems are deficient
fragmented, not interoperable, lack management
Warning processes have fundamentally changed in the US technology, social process, recent events
New warning response research is necessary Technology is important but is only part of the
solution
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Contact Information
John Sorensen
jhs@ornl.gov
865-576-2716
http://emc.ornl.gov
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