nina fedoroff

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Rethinking Agriculture in a Changing ClimateRethinking Agriculture in a Changing Climate

Nina V. Fedoroff

Science and Technology Adviser to the U. S. Secretary of State

and to the Admi nistrator of USAID

Nina V. Fedoroff

Science and Technology Adviser to the U. S. Secretary of State

and to the Admi nistrator of USAID

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Thomas MalthusThomas Malthus

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Concerns about food security are not new……Concerns about food security are not new……

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vn.schmidt-clem ens.de/vnoffice/data/0/0/0/227...vn.schmidt-clem ens.de/vnoffice/data/0/0/0/227...

Carl BoschCarl Bosch

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Fritz HaberFritz Haber

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Chemical fertil izationChemical fertil ization

iStock photo 000003424427iStock photo 000003424427

MechanizationMechanization

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bp3.blogger.com/…./s320/Hubert+proughing+2.jpgbp3.blogger.com/…./s320/Hubert+proughing+2.jpg

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http://www.iae a.org/NewsCenter/Features/Tsetse

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http://www.iae a.org/NewsCenter/Features/Tsetse

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http://image.guardian.co.uk/sysimages/Guardian/Pix/pictu

res/2006/07/18/farm372.jpg

http://image.guardian.co.uk/sysimages/Guardian/Pix/pictu

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Scientific agriculture is not universal Scientific agriculture is not universal

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http://www.arini.ac.uk/pics/maize%202altd.jpghttp://www.arini.ac.uk/pics/maize%202altd.jpg

www.kukurydza.org.pl/images/teosinte1.jpgwww.kukurydza.org.pl/images/teosinte1.jpg

evolution.berkeley.edu/.../images/cornfld.jpgevolution.berkeley.edu/.../images/cornfld.jpg

Genetic modificationGenetic modification

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http://www.apsnet.org/online/feature/BtCorn/Images/healthy%20ear.JPGhttp://www.apsnet.org/online/feature/BtCorn/Images/healthy%20ear.JPG

Molecular genetic modification: insect-resistant Bt maizeMolecular genetic modification: insect-resistant Bt maize

http://www.sustainablescale.org/images/uploaded/Population/World%20Population%20Growth%20to%202050.JPGhttp://www.sustainablescale.org/images/uploaded/Population/World%20Population%20Growth%20to%202050.JPG

Global population growth continues Global population growth continues

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www.theoildrum.com/.../12/global_land_use2.jpgwww.theoildrum.com/.../12/global_land_use2.jpg

Arable land is limited Arable land is limited

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Source: FAOSource: FAO

The food crisis of 2008 The food crisis of 2008

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Stott et al, Nature 432:610 (2004)Stott et al, Nature 432:610 (2004)

Increasing global temperatures Increasing global temperatures

Slide courtesy of Dr. David BattistiSlide courtesy of Dr. David Battisti

Impact of climate change on crops Impact of climate change on crops

2003

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Projections use 22 climate models (IPCC AR4) forced by A1B Emiss ion scenario.

Variability taken from observations

Projections use 22 climate models (IPCC AR4) forced by A1B Emiss ion scenario.

Variability taken from observations

Slide courtesy of Dr. David BattistiSlide courtesy of Dr. David Battisti

Projected growing season temperatures Projected growing season temperatures

Battisti and Naylor 2008Battisti and Naylor 2008

Projected growing season temperatures Projected growing season temperatures

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Schlenker and Roberts 2009, PNASSchlenker and Roberts 2009, PNAS

The relationship between temperature and crop yield The relationship between temperature and crop yield

A third of the world’s population already lives in drylandsA third of the world’s population already lives in drylands

Slide courtesy of Dr. Avigad Vonshak, Jacob Blaustein Institute for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the NegevSlide courtesy of Dr. Avigad Vonshak, Jacob Blaustein Institute for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev

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Water scarcity will increase in many populous placesWater scarcity will increase in many populous places

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are needed to see this pic ture. Slide courtesy of Dr. David Molden, International Water Management InstituteSlide courtesy of Dr. David Molden, International Water Management Institute

What will be MORE abundant? What will be MORE abundant?

What will be LESS abundant? What will be LESS abundant?

The shape of the futureThe shape of the future

What does that mean? What does that mean?

Today’s crops will not suffice for tomorrow’s worldToday’s crops will not suffice for tomorrow’s world

� Energy� Energy

� Fresh water� Fresh water

� Arable land� Arable land

� People (demand)� People (demand)

� Desert� Desert

� Heat� Heat

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What will it take to adapt agriculture to climate

change?

What will it take to adapt agriculture to climate

change?

� Conventional breeding for tolerance to heat, drought, salinity� Conventional breeding for tolerance to heat, drought, salinity

� Molecular modification for tolerance to heat, drought, salinity� Molecular modification for tolerance to heat, drought, salinity

� Out-of-the-box thinking: new crops, new methods, new systems � Out-of-the-box thinking: new crops, new methods, new systems

Q u ic k T im e ™ a n d a d e c o m p r e s s o r

a r e n e e d e d t o s e e t h is p ic t u r e .

Q u ic k T im e ™ a n d a d e c o m p r e s s o r

a r e n e e d e d t o s e e t h is p ic t u r e .

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http://www.cac-biodiversity.org/icarda/index.htmhttp://www.cac-biodiversity.org/icarda/index.htm

Q u ic k T im e ™ a n d a

d e c o m p r e s s o ra r e n e e d e d t o s e e t h is p ic t u r e .

Q u ic k T im e ™ a n d a

d e c o m p r e s s o ra r e n e e d e d t o s e e t h is p ic t u r e .

International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA), Aleppo, SyriaInternational Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA), Aleppo, Syria

Q uickTime™ and a decompressorare needed t o see t his pict ure.

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International Center For Biosaline Agricultural,

Dubai, UAE

International Center For Biosaline Agricultural,

Dubai, UAE

http://www.biosaline.org/http://www.biosaline.org/

Desert and saline agricultureDesert and saline agriculture

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Qu i c k T i m e ™ a n d a d e c o m p re s s o r

a re n e e d e d to s e e th i s p i c tu re .

Qu i c k T i m e ™ a n d a d e c o m p re s s o r

a re n e e d e d to s e e th i s p i c tu re .

http://www.hos.ufl.edu/ProtectedAg/images/Arava-2a.jpghttp://www.hos.ufl.edu/ProtectedAg/images/Arava-2a.jpg

Desert agricultureDesert agriculture

Photo courtesy of Dr. Avigad Vonshak,

Jacob Blaustein Institute for Desert Research

Ben-Gurion University of the Negev

Photo courtesy of Dr. Avigad Vonshak,

Jacob Blaustein Institute for Desert Research

Ben-Gurion University of the Negev

1 kg wheat – 500-2000 liters of water1 kg wheat – 500-2000 liters of water

1 kg fish – 10 liters of water1 kg fish – 10 liters of water

Water requirements of food cropsWater requirements of food crops

Adapted from Dr. Avigad Vonshak, Jacob Blaustein Institute for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the NegevAdapted from Dr. Avigad Vonshak, Jacob Blaustein Institute for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev

1 kg beef – 5000-20,000 liters of water!1 kg beef – 5000-20,000 liters of water!

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13 km Seawater River

Seawater Farms Bahia Kino

Photo courtesy of Dr. Carl Hodges, The Seawater FoundationPhoto courtesy of Dr. Carl Hodges, The Seawater Foundation

Integrated aquaculture and saline agricultureIntegrated aquaculture and saline agriculture

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Integrated aquaculture and saline agricultureIntegrated aquaculture and saline agriculture

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Photos courtesy of Dr. Carl Hodges, The Seawater FoundationPhotos courtesy of Dr. Carl Hodges, The Seawater Foundation

Integrated aquaculture and saline agricultureIntegrated aquaculture and saline agriculture

Integrated aquaculture and saline agricultureIntegrated aquaculture and saline agriculture

Photos courtesy of Dr. Carl Hodges, The Seawater FoundationPhotos courtesy of Dr. Carl Hodges, The Seawater Foundation

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Rethinking Agriculture in a Changing ClimateRethinking Agriculture in a Changing Climate

Nina V. Fedoroff

Science and Technology Adviser to the Secretar y of State

and to the Admi nistrator of USAID

Nina V. Fedoroff

Science and Technology Adviser to the Secretar y of State

and to the Admi nistrator of USAID