new frontiers for the nongmingong : china’s landscape of intra-provincial labor migration

New Frontiers for the Nongmingong: China’s Landscape of Intra-Provincial Labor

Migration

Doug ShultzGeography and EconomicsAdvisors: Professors Anne Knowles and Will Pyle

The storyMigrant conditions

– Unofficial residence status– Denied access to many social

services, resources– Discrimination – Rural to urban capital flows

Urbanization in China– Cultural Revolution

• Hukou System established

– Open Up and Reform policies• Development of the nongmingong

– Western Development• Emergence of intra-provincial

migration model

– 2008 Global Economic Crisis• Westward movement of industry

and labor• Strengthening intra-provincial

migration

The questionsWe know intra-provincial migration is increasing, so:

– Who?– Where?– WHY?– How can this knowledge inform migration reform?

How can we understand it?• Data

– Chinese Household Income Project Survey (CHIPS), 2002

• Geographic Analysis– Distance– Regionalization– Spatial relationships– Visualization

• Econometric Analysis– Intra- and inter-provincial migration models– Compensation models– Attitude models

Study area

Intra-provincial migration rates

Income levels

Provision of pension fund

Provision of medical insurance

Provision of unemployment insurance

Provision of housing

Average family size

Average age of migrant

Conclusions• Pull factors

– NOT pension, medical insurance, unemployment insurance– Housing

• Push factors– Family size tends to be lower– Migrants tend to be younger

Now what?• Further research and analysis

– Additional controls• Average provincial economic conditions• Legacy controls• Macro flows from the Chinese Census

– More robust geographic analysis• Network analysis• Distance measurements

• Toward the real world…

Why is this important?• Chinese migration policy• China’s sustainability

– Environmental– Economic

• Global economy• Socialism vs. Capitalism