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Brief description

Victor Logatskiy, Leading Expert, Energy Programmes, Razumkov Centre, Kyiv, Ukraine

NEW ENERGY STRATEGY

OF UKRAINE TILL 2035:SECURITY, ENERGY EFFICIENCY, COMPETITIVE ABILITY

2

Energy Sector of Ukraine at a Glance in 2016

THE STRUCTURE AND CAPACITY OF THE ЕNERGY SECTOR OF UKRAINE (2016)*

FUEL ELECTRIC POWER INDUSTRY

OILNATURAL

GAS COAL

BIOMASS TO FUEL NUCLEAR THERMAL HYDRO

NON-HYDRO RES

Proven reserves: 1104 bcm

Production:20 bcm

NATURAL GAS TRANSPOR-TATION AND

STORAGE

CRUDE OIL TRANSPOR-TATION AND

STORAGE

REFINERY

Proven reserves

(incl. HGL): 250 mt

Production:2,2 mt

Reserves: 33873 mt

Production:41 mt

(33 mt - energy coal incl.)

Avai lable resources: 33 mt o.e.

Used: 2,5 mt o.e.

Transit capacity: 140 bcm/year

Total length of main gas pipelines: 38550 km

Natural gas compressor stations: 72

Underground natural gas storage faci lities: 12 with

31 bcm of storage working capacity

Total length of natural gas distribution networks:

367000 km

Natural gas transit:82 bcm (growth 22%

from 2015 year)

Output capacity: 56,3 mt/year

Total length of main oil pipel ines: 4767 km

Oil pumping stations: 51

Reservoir parks: 11 with total storage capacity of 1083

thousand cm

Sea oi l terminal Pivdenny with total handling capacity of

14,5 mt/year

Crude oil t ransit: 15,2 mt

Design capacity (crude oil)

of 6 biggest refineries:

51,1 mt/year

In operation: only 1 from 6 biggest

Crude oil and HGL processed: 2,5 mt

POWER ELECTRICITY NETWORK

Installed capacity of 15 power units (reactors):

13835 MW-e (25%)

Electrici ty production:81 mMWh (52%)

Installed capacity including cogeneration plants: 34314 MW-e

(62%)

Electrici ty production:63,2 mMWh (41%)

Installed capacity: 6221 MW-e (11%)

Electrici ty production:9,1 mMWh (6%)

Installed capacity of RES power stations:

962 MW-e (2%)

Including:

- Solar – 458 MW-e

- Wind – 439 MW-e

- Biomass fi red – 65 MW-e

Electrici ty production:1,6 mMWh (1%)

Length of main power transmission lines:

29190 km

136 basic substations with total transformation capacity of

78632 MVA.

Length of electrical distribution grids: about 1 mi llion km

about 200 thousand 6-150 kV local transformer substations.

Electrici ty transportation:153 mMWh

Export of electr icity:4 mMWh (91% in EU)

Ukrainian energy sector

in key estimations:

• Ranks in the top 10 in

Europe

• Ranks in top 30 in the

World

• Occupies ~ 30% of national

economy

• Provides transportation

~ 20% of annual EU natural

gas consumption

• Requires adaptation to new

challenges, market

conditions and

modernization, and state

policy for development

* Razumkov Centre’s analysis

New Energy Strategy

3

Hierarchical Structure of the New Energy Strategy of Ukraine

tIll 2035: the goals, tasks, mechanisms and algorithms

Legend: * Source: Razumkov Centre’s presentation Goals Tasks Mechanisms Algorithms

4

Temporal Vector: the Main Phases of the Energy Strategy

Till 2020

Till 2025

Till 2035

Ph

ase

1

Energy Sector Reforms on the basis of EU Legislation Implemen-tation P

ha

se

2

Optimization and Innovative Development of the Energy Infrastructure EU-Ukraine Energy Markets Integration

Ph

as

e3

EnsuringSustainable Energy DevelopmentAdjusting the energy policy in line with the European and global tendencies

5

Phase 1. Energy Sector Reforms: Key Tasks

Completion of the implementation of the 3rd EU Energy Package; modern energy markets formation

Institutional reforming of the state energy companies and integration to ENTSO-G

Increasing of domestic natural gas production

Progressive decreasing of GDP energy intensity

Increasing of the RES share and investments in regard to Emissions Reduction National Action Plan

6

Phase 2. Optimization and Innovative Development

of the Energy Infrastructure: Key Tasks

Integration to ENTSO-E

Modernisation of the energy grids infrastructure, smart-grids implementation

Development of heating infrastructure depending on local resources and regional specifics

Country’s achievement to self-provision with natural gas from domestic production

Follow-up increasing of the RES share and investments in regard to Emissions Reduction National Action Plan

7

Phase 3. Ensuring Sustainable Energy

Development: Key Tasks

Innovative development and CHP plants and NPP construction instead of disposal or obsolete units

Extensive implementation of smart-grids and client-oriented networks

Adaptation of the gas transportation system to the actual demands of the all-European gas market

Increasing domestic natural gas production

Follow-up increasing of the RES share up to 25% of GES and investments to further emissions reduction

8

Forecast of the Structure of the Primary Energy Supply

* Термальна енергія довкілля та скидні ресурси техногенного походження

27

1814 13 12

26

24 27 28 29

10,5

9,58 7,5 7

23,0

24 28 2724

2

46 8

11

Solar and wind; 0,1 Solar and wind; 1 Solar and wind; 2 Solar and wind; 5

Solar and wind; 10

Hydro; 1

Hydro; 1Hydro; 1

Hydro; 1

Hydro; 1

Heat and geothermal; 0,5

Heat and geothermal; 0,5

Heat and geothermal; 1

Heat and geothermal; 1,5

Heat and geothermal; 2,0

90,1

82

87

91

96

75

80

85

90

95

100

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

mln. t.o.e.

Coal Natural gas Oil productsNuclear Biofuels and wastes Solar and windHydro Heat and geothermal Total

30 2216,1 14,3 12,5

28,929,3

31,030,8

30,2

11,6

11,5

9,28,2

7,3

25,5

29,3

32,229,7

25,0

2,24,9

6,9

8,8

11,5

Solar and wind; 0,1

Solar and wind; 1,2

Solar and wind; 2,4

Solar and wind; 5,5

Solar and wind; 10,4

Hydro; 1,1 Hydro; 1,2 Hydro; 1,1 Hydro; 1,1 Hydro; 1,0

Heat and geothermal; 0,6

Heat and geothermal; 0,6

Heat and geothermal; 1,1

Heat and geothermal; 1,6

Heat and geothermal; 2,1

4

8

12

17

25

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

%

Coal Natural gas Oil products

Nuclear Biofuels and wastes Solar and wind

Hydro Heat and geothermal - RES

9

Strategy’s Benchmark Indicators

A. Energy Efficiency Approaching 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

GDP energy intensity (t.o.e. /’000 $PPP 2005) 0,28 0,20 0,18 0,15 0,13

Losses share in electricity grids (%) >12 10 9 8 <7,5

B. Expansion of the RES 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

RES share in the Total Primary Energy

Supply (%)4 8* 12 17 25

* RES share in the final energy consumption is estimated 11% of the total final energy consumption in 2020.

Thank you for your attention!

01015, Кyiv, Lavrska street 16,Telephone: + 38 0442011198Facsimile: + 38 0442011199http://www.razumkov.org.ua

victor.logatskiy@razumkov.org.uavictor.logatskiy@gmail.com