(mt/ag/ensc/enst 404/504 - global change) ecosystems (from ipcc wg-2, chapters 4,9-16) ecosystems...
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(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16)Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16)
EcosystemsEcosystems
Primary Source: Primary Source:
IPCC WG-2 Chapter 4 - Ecosystems, their properties, goods and servicesIPCC WG-2 Chapter 4 - Ecosystems, their properties, goods and services
(Plus parts of WG-2 Chapters 9-16)(Plus parts of WG-2 Chapters 9-16)
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16)Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16)
Ecosystem Ecosystem
From WG-2 Chapter 4:
“a dynamic complex of plant, animal and micro-organism communities, and the non-living environment, interacting as a functional unit”
“strong interactions between components within their boundaries and weak interactions across boundaries”
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16)Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16)
Ecosystem Goods & Services - 1Ecosystem Goods & Services - 1
Supporting servicesSupporting services
• Primary and secondary productionPrimary and secondary production
• BiodiversityBiodiversity
Provisioning servicesProvisioning services
• FoodFood
• FibreFibre
• Medicinal and cosmetic productsMedicinal and cosmetic products
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16)Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16)
Ecosystem Goods & Services - 2Ecosystem Goods & Services - 2
Regulating servicesRegulating services
• Carbon sequestrationCarbon sequestration
• Climate and water regulationClimate and water regulation
• Buffering natural hazards (e.g., floods)Buffering natural hazards (e.g., floods)
• Water and air purificationWater and air purification
• Disease and pest regulationDisease and pest regulation
Cultural servicesCultural services
• Human spiritual & aesthetic appreciationHuman spiritual & aesthetic appreciation
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16)Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16)
Major Ecosystems: Areas and Carbon StocksMajor Ecosystems: Areas and Carbon Stocks
Transformed by land use
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16)Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16)
Key Issues - ResilienceKey Issues - Resilience
Resilience Resilience disturbance tolerated before shifting to disturbance tolerated before shifting to a different state (e.g., forest a different state (e.g., forest prairie) prairie)
- also: ability to adapt naturally- also: ability to adapt naturally
Expectation that ecosystems will tolerate some level of Expectation that ecosystems will tolerate some level of climate change and persistclimate change and persist
- Speed of (“stable”) transient responses?- Speed of (“stable”) transient responses?
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16)Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16)
Key Issues - Other Human PressuresKey Issues - Other Human Pressures
Extractive use of goodsExtractive use of goods
Increased degradation of natural habitats Increased degradation of natural habitats
Increased fragmentation of natural habitatsIncreased fragmentation of natural habitats
Climate change can amplify these pressuresClimate change can amplify these pressures
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16)Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16)
Key Issues - Critical ThresholdsKey Issues - Critical Thresholds
Exceding critical threshold
positive feedbackspositive feedbacks
novel states, poorly understoodnovel states, poorly understood
“Climate future and direct human pressures ‘virtually certain’ to be unprecedented vs. past 100s millenia”
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16)Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16)
Key Issues - Time LagsKey Issues - Time Lags
Time needed for broad-scale biospheric responses or shifts in geographical ranges: poorly understood
E.G.:
• centuries for vegetation
• millennia for soil formation
Further understanding needed: How do ecosystems respond to continuously changing conditions (esp. on human time scales)?
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16)Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16)
Key Issues - Species ExtinctionsKey Issues - Species Extinctions
Global extinction is a critical issue:
Biodiversity is “very likely” linked to ecosystem functioning and maintenance of ecosystem services.
What extinctions are critical for ecosystem functioning? How do they reduce societal options for adaptation?
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16)Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16)
Example: “Hot Spots” in Australia & New ZealandExample: “Hot Spots” in Australia & New Zealand
Criteria: large impacts, low adaptive capacity, substantial population, economically important, substantial exposed infrastructure, and subject to other major stresses
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16)Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16)
Example: Europe’s Key VulnerabilitiesExample: Europe’s Key Vulnerabilities
Criteria: large impacts, low adaptive capacity, substantial population, economically important, substantial exposed infrastructure, and subject to other major stresses
Colors: Main Colors: Main biogeographic biogeographic regions (EEA, regions (EEA, 2004)2004)
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16)Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16)
Example: Europe - Change in Species RichnessExample: Europe - Change in Species Richness(Amphibians and Reptiles)(Amphibians and Reptiles)
Criteria: large impacts, low adaptive capacity, substantial population, economically important, substantial exposed infrastructure, and subject to other major stresses
(Using HadCM3, A1F1 Scenario)(Using HadCM3, A1F1 Scenario)Richness Richness Green Green
RichnessRichness Purple Purple
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16)Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16)
Latin America: DeforestationLatin America: Deforestation
Predicted 2000-2100 Deforestation Areas
Latin America GHG emissions = ~ 4% of global total ( ~ 50% from land-use change)Latin America GHG emissions = ~ 4% of global total ( ~ 50% from land-use change)
Up to 40% loss of mammalian habitats by 2050.Up to 40% loss of mammalian habitats by 2050.
Important driver: soybean planting [38 Mha (2003/04) Important driver: soybean planting [38 Mha (2003/04) 59 Mha (2019/20)] 59 Mha (2019/20)]
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16)Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16)
North America: Forest FiresNorth America: Forest Fires
Effect of projected precipitation and (precipitation - evaporation) changes?Effect of projected precipitation and (precipitation - evaporation) changes?
Other stresses (e.g., pests)?Other stresses (e.g., pests)?
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16)Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16)
North America: Bud BurstNorth America: Bud Burst
Effect on other parts of ecosystem (e.g., pollinating insects)?Effect on other parts of ecosystem (e.g., pollinating insects)?
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16)Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16)
Arctic: Ecosystem ChangesArctic: Ecosystem Changes
Dynamic vegetation model Dynamic vegetation model driven by HadCM2 (2090-2100)driven by HadCM2 (2090-2100)
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16)Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16)
Coral BleachingCoral Bleaching
Stresses include:Stresses include:
• Increased ocean acidity (pH)Increased ocean acidity (pH)
• Stronger stormsStronger storms
• Over-fishingOver-fishing
• PollutionPollution
• Cycles such as ENSO & Warmer SSTCycles such as ENSO & Warmer SST
Threats from pollution, development, fishing, sediments, nutrients
Low: Blue High: Red
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16)Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16)
Future Coral BleachingFuture Coral BleachingStresses:Stresses:
• Increased ocean acidity (pH): No current linkIncreased ocean acidity (pH): No current link
• Stronger storms: Possible in futureStronger storms: Possible in future
• Others: over-fishing, pollution, cycles such as ENSOOthers: over-fishing, pollution, cycles such as ENSO
• Warmer SST: Warmer SST: T > ~ 1 ˚C above summer max. for 4+ weeksT > ~ 1 ˚C above summer max. for 4+ weeks
- expulsion of symbiotic zooxanthellae expulsion of symbiotic zooxanthellae
- fast-growing, bleaching-resistant genera dominate recoveryfast-growing, bleaching-resistant genera dominate recovery
Challenge for projections: How much does coral adapt?
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16)Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16)
Coral Bleaching Events vs. SSTCoral Bleaching Events vs. SST
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16)Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16)
Projected Risks vs. Projected Risks vs. TT
Not Included: Effects of over-harvesting, pollution, land-use change, habitat fragmentationNot Included: Effects of over-harvesting, pollution, land-use change, habitat fragmentation
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16)Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16)
ENDEND
EcosystemsEcosystems
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