ipcc sixth assessment report (ar6) role of working group ... ipcc ar6 wg-iii bhc.pdf ·...
TRANSCRIPT
IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6)Role of Working Group III (Mitigation)
British High Commission, New Delhi29 January 2016
IPCC outputs
+ Special Reports as requested by the Panel, e.g. Extreme Events; Renewable Energy; Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage; Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry; Aviation
WG-III Bureau elected October 2015
Outline of AR5 WG-III Report
1 Introductory Chapter2 Integrated Risk and Uncertainty Assessment of Climate Change Response Policies3 Social, Economic and Ethical Concepts and Methods
4 Sustainable Development and Equity
5 Drivers, Trends and Mitigation
6 Assessing Transformation Pathways
7 Energy Systems8 Transport9 Buildings10 Industry
11 Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU)
12 Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Spatial Planning
13 International Cooperation: Agreements and Instruments14 Regional Development and Cooperation
15 National and Sub-National Policies and Institutions
16 Cross-cutting Investment and Finance Issues
Cumulative CO2 emissions are correlated with global temperatures
5
The window for action is rapidly closing65% of our carbon budget compatible with a 2°C goal already used
Amount Used1870-2011:
515GtC
Amount Remaining:
275GtC
Total Carbon Budget:
790GtC
AR5 WGI SPM
Stabilization of atmospheric concentrations requires moving away from the baseline – regardless of the mitigation goal.
~3°C
Based on Figure 6.7 AR5 WGIII SPM
Limiting Temperature Increase to 2˚C
Measures exist to achieve the substantial emissions reductions required to limit likely warming to 2°C
A combination of adaptation and substantial, sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions can limit climate change risks
Implementing reductions in greenhouse gas emissions poses substantial technological, economic, social, and institutional challenges
But delaying mitigation will substantially increase the challenges associated with limiting warming to 2°C
AR5 WGI SPM, AR5 WGII SPM,AR5 WGIII SPM
Mitigation Measures
More efficient use of energy
Greater use of low-carbon and no-carbon energy• Many of these technologies exist today
Improved carbon sinks• Reduced deforestation and improved forest management
and planting of new forests • Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage
Lifestyle and behavioural changesAR5 WGIII SPM
10
Emission patterns would need to change throughout the economy.
Aspirations of new Bureau
➜ Enhance participation of developing country experts ➜ Deepen engagement between Working Groups➜ Strengthen links between the insights obtained from high level
integrated assessment modelling and the concrete steps required to mitigate climate change
➜ Increase policy relevance and neutrality by incorporating inputs from business, industry and finance
➜ Enhance the relevance for policymakers charged with following through decisions made under the Framework Convention
➜ Connect to domestic challenges such as job creation, health, innovation and technology development, energy access and poverty alleviation
31 proposals for Special Reports during AR6: Two or three possible
Cluster A: Land use, desertification, food and agriculture 7 proposals
Cluster B: Cryosphere, oceans and mountains 8 proposals
Cluster C: Health and security 2 proposals
Cluster D: Integrating adaptation and mitigation 5 proposals
Cluster E: Carbon pricing 1 proposal
Cluster F: Scenarios and low-carbon development 4 proposals including UNFCCC 1.5°
Cluster G: Managing climate data and information 1 proposal
Cluster H: Updates policy relevant messages/extreme events 2 proposals
Cluster I: Cities 1 proposal
AR6 milestones – latter part of cycle to be decided
➜ October 2015: election of Bureau➜ April 2016: selection of Special Reports
➜ 2018: date of report requested by UNFCCC on implications of 1.5°global warming
➜ 2020/21: assessment reports start to be approved ➜ 2021/22: deadline for AR6 Synthesis Report➜ 2022: end of AR6 and election of new Bureau
Public sector energy RD&D spend has recovered, and is focusing increasingly on renewables and efficiency
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009
$/ba
rrel
201
2
$bn
2012
US
Other
Renewable Energy
Nuclear
Fossil Fuels
Crude oil price
Source: IEA
Energy innovation underpinned by advances in underlying science and engineering
Materials scienceBiosciences
Information and communication technologies
The energy innovation system
Grubler & Wilson (2014)
Renewables costs have been falling, especially PV
IPCC SRREN
The productivity of fossil fuel extraction has also risen
Source: Energy Information Administration
The effectiveness of energy innovation systems:technology case studies
Heat pumps
Smart grid
Shale gas
Wind energy
Waveenergy
The effectiveness of energy innovation systems:country case studies