module 17 mm5: climate simulation william j. gutowski, jr. iowa state university

Module 17 Module 17 MM5: Climate SimulationMM5: Climate Simulation

William J. Gutowski, Jr.William J. Gutowski, Jr.Iowa State UniversityIowa State University

Module 17 Module 17 MM5: Climate SimulationMM5: Climate Simulation

Examples of MM5 climate simulation:Examples of MM5 climate simulation: North AmericaNorth America ArcticArctic

W. J. Gutowski, R. W. Arritt, G. S. Takle, Z. PanW. J. Gutowski, R. W. Arritt, G. S. Takle, Z. PanInternational Institute of Theoretical and Applied International Institute of Theoretical and Applied

PhysicsPhysicsIowa State UniversityIowa State University

(http://www.pircs.iastate.edu)(http://www.pircs.iastate.edu)

Project to Intercompare Regional Project to Intercompare Regional Climate SimulationsClimate Simulations

(PIRCS)(PIRCS)

PIRCS Participating ModelsPIRCS Participating Models• Danish Met. Inst. (HIRHAM4; J.H. Christensen, O.B. Christensen)Danish Met. Inst. (HIRHAM4; J.H. Christensen, O.B. Christensen)

• Université du Québec à Montréal (D. Caya, S. Biner)Université du Québec à Montréal (D. Caya, S. Biner)

• Scripps Institution of Oceanography (RSM; J. Roads, S. Chen)Scripps Institution of Oceanography (RSM; J. Roads, S. Chen)

• NCEP (RSM; S.-Y. Hong) NCEP (RSM; S.-Y. Hong)

• NASA - Marshall (MM5/BATS; W. Lapenta)NASA - Marshall (MM5/BATS; W. Lapenta)

• CSIRO (DARLAM; J. McGregor, J. Katzfey)CSIRO (DARLAM; J. McGregor, J. Katzfey)

• Colorado State University (ClimRAMS; G. Liston)Colorado State University (ClimRAMS; G. Liston)

• Iowa State University (RegCM2; Z. Pan)Iowa State University (RegCM2; Z. Pan)

• Iowa State University (MM5/LSM; D. Flory)Iowa State University (MM5/LSM; D. Flory)

• Univ. of Maryland / NASA-GSFC (GEOS; M. Fox-Rabinovitz)Univ. of Maryland / NASA-GSFC (GEOS; M. Fox-Rabinovitz)

• SMHI / Rossby Centre (RCA; M. Rummukainen, C. Jones)SMHI / Rossby Centre (RCA; M. Rummukainen, C. Jones)

• NOAA (RUC2; G. Grell)NOAA (RUC2; G. Grell)

• ETH (D. Luethi)ETH (D. Luethi)

• Universidad Complutense Madrid (PROMES; M.Gaertner)Universidad Complutense Madrid (PROMES; M.Gaertner)

• Université Catholique du Louvain (P. Marbaix)Université Catholique du Louvain (P. Marbaix)

• Argnonne National Lab (MM5 V3; J. Taylor, J. Larson)Argnonne National Lab (MM5 V3; J. Taylor, J. Larson)

PIRCS MissionPIRCS Mission

Evaluate regional climate simulation by Evaluate regional climate simulation by mesoscale models, using a mesoscale models, using a common common frameworkframework

Summer 1988 - Drought

Adapted from CAC, NWS, NOAA

Jet Stream

Cool &Damp

Weak & Dry Southerly Flow

Heat Wave

Heat Wave

Summer 1993 - Flood

Adapted from CAC, NWS, NOAA

Jet StreamCool

Warm & Moist Southerly Flow

FLood

Experiment 1Experiment 1

15 May - 13 July 1988(Drought)

1 June - 30 July 1993 (Flood)

PeriodsPeriods

Experiment 1Experiment 1

IC: NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, including soil moisture

BC: NCEP/NCAR reanalysis Additional surface temperatures:

Great Lakes observations Gulf of California satellite retrievals

Initial/Boundary ConditionsInitial/Boundary Conditions

Model Domains

MM5

500 hPa heights: Root Mean Square Difference from Reanalysis

1988

500 hPa RMSD

0

20

40

60

80

100

136 141 146 151 156 161 166 171 176 181 186 191 196

Julian Day

RegCM2

RAMS

DARLAM

HIRHAM

Scripps RSM

NCEP RSM

MM5-BATS

500 hPa heights: Root Mean Square Difference from Reanalysis

1993

500 mb RMSD

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1 21 41 61 81 101 121 141 161 181 201 221 241Time period (6 hourly)

DARLAM RSM-Scripps ETHHIRHAM MM5-BATS RSM-NCEPClimRAMS RCA RegCM2RUC UQAM

ReanalysisReanalysisLLJLLJ

00 UTC00 UTC06 UTC06 UTC12 UTC12 UTC18 UTC18 UTC

12 24 36 48 60 72 84%

MM5MM5LLJLLJ

00 UTC00 UTC06 UTC06 UTC12 UTC12 UTC18 UTC18 UTC

12 24 36 48 60 72 84%

Precipitation RegionsPrecipitation Regions

UpperMiss.

SWSE

NW

Comparison of PIRCS models with Comparison of PIRCS models with gridded precipitation analysisgridded precipitation analysis

Precipitation over Upper Mississippi River Basin

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

136 141 146 151 156 161 166 171 176 181 186 191 196Julian Day

Observed MM5-BATS

RSM-Scripps RSM-NCEP

DARLAM HIRHAM

RegCM2 RAMS

Precipitation - Southwest Monsoon RegionPrecipitation - Southwest Monsoon Region

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

156 160 164 168 172 176 180 184 188 192

Julian Day (15 May 1988 - 15 July 1988)

Observed RSM - Scripps

RSM - NCEP DARLAM

HIRHAM MM5-BATS

RegCM2 RAMS - ISU

0

5

10

15

20

136 140 144 148 152 156 160 164 168 172 176 180 184 188 192 196

Julian Day (15 May 1988 - 15 July 1988)

Observed RSM - Scripps

RSM - NCEP DARLAM

HIRHAM MM5-BATS

REGCM2

Precipitation - Pacific NorthwestPrecipitation - Pacific Northwest

0

5

10

15

20

25

136 140 144 148 152 156 160 164 168 172 176 180 184 188 192

Julian Day

Observed RSM - Scripps

RSM - NCEP DARLAM

HIRHAM MM5-BATS

RegCM2 RAMS - ISU

Precipitation - SoutheastPrecipitation - Southeast

Comparison of PIRCS models with Comparison of PIRCS models with gridded precipitation analysisgridded precipitation analysis

Accumulated Precipitation

0

100

200

300

400

500DARLAM RSM-ScrippsETH HIRHAMMM5-BATS RSM-NCEPClimRAMS RCARegCM2 RUCUQAM Obs (Higgins)Model Mean VEMAPMM5-ANL

Precip. BiasPrecip. BiasJune 1988June 1988

[mm/d][mm/d]

CompositeComposite

-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 +2 +4 +6 +8 +10 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 +2 +4 +6 +8 +10

MM5/BATSMM5/BATS

Precip. BiasPrecip. BiasJuly 1993July 1993

[mm/d][mm/d]-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 +2 +4 +6 +8 +10 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 +2 +4 +6 +8 +10

CompositeComposite

MM5/BATSMM5/BATS

?

~ 200 mm

MM5/LSMMM5/LSM

From From Storm Data Storm Data

ReportsReports(9 June 1993)(9 June 1993)

Dawson,Howard,Martin &Dawson,Howard,Martin &Midland Counties Midland Counties (West Texas):(West Texas): Flash FloodsFlash Floods Hail Hail ~ 6” (150 mm) precip.~ 6” (150 mm) precip.

~ 200 mm

MM5/LSMMM5/LSM

FIFE Field CampaignFIFE Field Campaign

KansasKansas

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

OBSERVED

LatentSensibleInc. SW

[W-m

-2 ]

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

NCEP RSM

[W-m

-2 ]

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24

SCRIPPS RSM

[W-m

-2 ]

Hour

REGCM2

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24

MM5-BATS

Hour

CLIMRAMS

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24

ISU RAMS

Hour

HIRHAM DARLAM

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

OBSERVED

LatentSensibleInc. SW

[W-m

-2 ]

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

NCEP RSM

[W-m

-2 ]

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24

SCRIPPS RSM

[W-m

-2 ]

Hour

REGCM2

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24

MM5-BATS

Hour

CLIMRAMS

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24

ISU RAMS

Hour

HIRHAM DARLAM

290

295

300

305

310

315

320

130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200

Daily Maximum Temperature

FIFEECPCRSMM5BTSNCPRSMRAMSGLREGCM2

Day of Year

280

285

290

295

300

305

310

130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200

Daily Minimum Temperature

FIFEECPCRSMM5BTSNCPRSMRAMSGLREGCM2

Day of Year

0

50

100

150

200

250

130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200

Latent Heat Flux

FIFE-sdevFIFE+sdevNCEPMM5-BATSScripps

REGCM2HIRHAMDARLAMRAMSGL(SM)

Day of Year

-50

0

50

100

150

200

130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200

Sensible Heat Flux

FIFE-sdev

FIFE+sdev

NCEP

MM5-BATS

SCRIPPS

REGCM2

HIRHAM

DARLAM

Day of Year

0

100

200

300

400

500

130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200

Incident Shortwave Radiation

FIFE-sdevFIFE+sdevNCEPMM5-BATS

SCRIPPSREGCM2HIRHAMDARLAM

Day of Year

Acknowledgments - PIRCSAcknowledgments - PIRCS

• Primary Funding: Primary Funding:

Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)• Guidance/Support: Guidance/Support:

Andrew Staniforth, Eugenia Kalnay, Andrew Staniforth, Eugenia Kalnay,

Filippo Giorgi, Roger Pielke, AMIP groupFilippo Giorgi, Roger Pielke, AMIP group• Special Thanks: Special Thanks:

Participating ModelersParticipating Modelers

Module 17 Module 17 MM5: Climate SimulationMM5: Climate Simulation

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