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MM5 - Iowa State. Soil initialization: - Reanalysis run: soil moisture at initial time - GCM runs: soil moisture in a “neutral” year of reanalysis run Spin up: 3 years Interior nudging? No. MM5 - Iowa State. Boundary conditions relaxation: - 15-point sponge zone - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • MM5 - Iowa State Soil initialization:- Reanalysis run: soil moisture at initial time- GCM runs: soil moisture in a neutral year of reanalysis runSpin up: 3 yearsInterior nudging? No

  • MM5 - Iowa State Boundary conditions relaxation:- 15-point sponge zone- damping strengths decays exponentially toward interiorTime step: 100 secondsMissing output variables: No

  • MM5 - Iowa State Parameterizations:Non-hydrostatic, compressible dynamics Kain-Fritsch2 mass flux convective schemeReisner mixed-phase mmicrophysics NOAH land schemeUSGS 25 land/24 vegetation categories thermal/water layers: 4 Hong-Pan (MRF) counter-gradient, non-local K PBL

  • NARCCAP Domains

  • MM5 Variables Submitted to ArchiveReanalysis run: pr, zg500, huss, tas, uas, vas, snd, ts, zmla CCSM current: pr, zg500, huss, tas, uas vas, snd, ts, zmla, ps, psl, prc CCSM scenario: pr, zg500, huss, tas, uas, vas, snd, ts, zmla, ps, psl, prc

    Bottleneck? Script development

  • Iowa StateRESEARCH PLANS ENSO cycle in NARCCAP domainExtreme monthly (and more frequent?) precipitationSurface and upper air winds

  • Surface Wind Analysis (Pryor et al.) Average of annual mean wind speeds (1979-2000)

  • Surface Wind Analysis (Pryor et al.) Synthesis of trends

  • Surface Wind Analysis (Pryor et al.) Trends in annual mean wind speeds at 00 UTC

  • Surface Wind Analysis (Pryor et al.) Trends in annual mean wind speeds at 12 UTC

  • Hydrologic Analysis (Takle et al.)SWAT model domainSimulation period: last 2 decades of 20C

  • Hydrologic Analysis (Takle et al.)Streamflow Interannual Variability

  • Hydrologic Analysis (Takle et al.)Precipitation Annual Cycle

  • Hydrologic Analysis (Takle et al.)Streamflow Annual Cycle

  • MM5 - Iowa State Thank you

    Figure 2. Average of annual mean wind speeds 1979-2000 from (a) the NCDC-6421, (b) NCDC21 (DS3505 modified as described herein), (c) NCEP-1, (d) NCEP-2, (e) ERA-40, (f)22 NARR, (g) MM5 and (h) RSM.

    *Figure 6: Synthesis of the trend analysis for annual mean wind speed and inter-annual variability.20 Each frame represents a different data source. The bottom two sets of bars represent the21 number of stations or grid cells (left-hand axis) that exhibit a statistically significant22 change in wind speed (Trend in mean) (expressed in 0.1%/year bins) and the number of23 grid cells that exhibit a statistically significant change in both wind speed and inter36annual 1 variability (Trend in mean and inter-annual variability). The top bars show for the2 grid cells or stations that exhibited a statistically significant change in both annual mean3 wind speed and inter-annual variability the number of stations or grid cells (right-hand4 axis) that showed a change in the magnitude of the trend in inter-annual variability5 expressed in 1% change in the variance of annual mean wind speed per year. These data6 are shown for grid cells or stations that exhibited an increase in the annual mean wind7 speed (Positive trend in mean) and for stations or grid-cells that exhibited a decrease in8 the annual mean wind speed (Negative trend in mean).910*Figure 3: Results of the trend analysis applied to data from 0000 UTC. The individual framesshow results for the 50th 3 percentile wind speed from (a) NCDC-6421 (1973-2000), (b)4 NCDC DS3505 (1973-2005), (c) NCEP Reanalysis 1 (1948-2006), (d) NCEP Reanalysis5 2 (1979-2006), (e) ERA-40 (1973-2001), (f) NARR output (1979-2006), (g) MM5 output(1979-2004), (h) RSM output (1979-2004), and the 90th 6 percentile wind speed from (i)7 NCDC-6421 (1973-2000), (j) NCDC DS3505 (1973-2005), (k) NCEP Reanalysis 18 (1948-2006), (l) NCEP Reanalysis 2 (1979-2006), (m) ERA-40 (1973-2001), (n) NARR9 (1979-2006), (o) MM5 output (1979-2004), (p) RSM output (1979-2004). In each frame10 the size of the dot scales linearly with the magnitude of the trend and the color of the dot11 indicates the sign of the trend. Where the station time series did not indicate a statistically12 significant trend a + symbol is shown. Where time series from a reanalysis or RCM grid13 cell did not exhibit a trend no symbol is shown.*Figure 4: Results of the trend analysis applied to data from 1200 UTC. The individual framesshow results for the 50th 16 percentile wind speed from (a) NCDC-6421 (1973-2000), (b)17 NCDC DS3505 (1973-2005), (c) NCEP Reanalysis 1 (1948-2006), (d) NCEP Reanalysis18 2 (1979-2006), (e) ERA-40 (1973-2001), (f) NARR output (1979-2006), (g) MM5 output(1979-2004), (h) RSM output (1979-2004), and the 90th 19 percentile wind speed from (i)20 NCDC-6421 (1973-2000), (j) NCDC DS3505 (1973-2005), (k) NCEP Reanalysis 121 (1948-2006), (l) NCEP Reanalysis 2 (1979-2006), (m) ERA-40 (1973-2001), (n) NARR22 (1979-2006), (o) MM5 output (1979-2004), (p) RSM output (1979-2004). In each frame23 the size of the dot scales linearly with the magnitude of the trend and the color of the dot35indicates the 1 sign of the trend. Where the station time series did not indicate a statistically2 significant trend a + symbol is shown. Where time series from a reanalysis or RCM grid3 cell did not exhibit a trend no symbol is shown.****Caution: Dont confuse regional detail for regional information. It might be regional noise.*