modeling the regional economic and social impact of marine pollution in southern california...

Modeling the Regional Economic and Social Impact of Marine Pollution inSouthern California

Principal Investigators: Michael Hanemann, Linwood Pendleton, and David Layton

Participating Universities: University of California at Berkeley, University of Southern California, University of

California at Davis

Sponsoring Agencies:Federal

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Damage Assessment and Special Programs) Minerals Management Service

StateState Water Resources Control BoardCalifornia Department of Fish and Game (OSPR)

RegionalSanta Monica Bay Restoration ProgramSouthern California Coastal Water Research Program

Research Goals: Develop a Model of Beach Choice,

incorporating:Travel and Time Costs (and expenditures)Beach AmenitiesWater QualitySubstitution Possibilities (Time & Space)

Research Goals: Determine the Economic Impact Due to:

Changes in Water QualityBeach PostingsBeach Closures(Amenity Management)

Research Goals: Measure Economic Impacts on:

The Well-being of Beach GoersLocal Expenditures

The Essentials:Beach InventoriesScreener SurveyYear Long Panel Survey

Year 1: Focus on beaches from San Onofre to County Line BeachYear 2: Extend focus north to San Luis Obispo

An Inventory of Beach Attributes: GIS

Beaches Covered County Line

Santa Monica

Venice

Hermosa

Huntington

Newport

Laguna

San Onofre

From Counties in Stage 1

Beaches Covered San Simeon State

Pismo State

Goleta

Carpenteria City

La Conchita

Emma Woods State

Oxnard Shores

Thornhill Broome

From Counties added in Stage 2

An Inventory of Beach Attributesstart (south/west) channel island views (1/0) marina (1/0) ranger/lifeguard station

stop (north/east) commercial stores (1/0) oil pumps (1/0) rivers (1/0)

abut to natural area (1/0) concerts (1/0) oil rigs (1/0) roadside parking (1/0)

beach access by foot (1/0) concession stands (#) parking fee ($/day) sandy/rocky

beach access from parking lot (1/0)

condos/hotels (1/0) pier (1/0) showers (1/0)

beach access from street (1/0)

distance to major road (km)

playground (1/0) sidewalk (1/0)

beach club (#) diving (1/0) power/sewage plant (1/0)

stormdrains (#)

beachfront housing (1/0) dogs allowed (1/0) public facilities (1/0) surfing (1/0)beachside restaurant (#) fire pits (#) public parking (1/0) tarballs (1/0)bike/skate rentals (1/0) fishing (1/0) public phones tidepools (1/0)

bikepath (1/0) harbor (1/0) public restroom (#) volleyball nets (#)

camping (1/0) lifeguard stations (#) public transportation (1/0)

volleyball tournaments (1/0)

Stage 1: Los Angeles Orange County San Bernadino Riverside

Stage 2:Los AngelesOrange CountySan BernadinoRiversideVenturaSanta BarbaraSan Luis Obispo

Beach Goers Covered: Counties Surveyed

Preliminary Results: Screener SurveySample Overview

Surveyed Potential Participants (Beach Users)

Accepted Participation in the Study

Declined Participation

Non Users

1761 984 787 197 777

% of those Surveyed 56.87 44.69 11.19 44.12% of Beach Users NA 79.98 20.02 NA

Screener Survey: Other ResultsDemographics

Beach Users in

StudyBeach Users that Declined

Non-Beach Users

Median Family Income

$50-60000 $50-60000 $20-30000

Less than 9th 2.1 4 4.8

9th to 12th 4.2 3.6 6HS graduate 19.2 18.8 27.4Some college 34.6 30 26.4Bachelor’s 24.9 26.9 17.9Grad/Prof. 14.9 13.7 8Declined 0.1 3 9.5

[2] Year 1989. Source = U.S. Bureau of the Census

[1] Year 2000. Source: County of San Bernardino Department of Economic and Community Development (DECD) (http://www.co.san-bernardino.ca.us/ecd/pdfs/2000DemoPro.pdf). Four county totals compiled by DECD from various sources.

Percent Completed Each Level of Education

Preliminary Results: Panel Survey

1st Trip in 8/9 2000

2nd Trip in 8/9 2000

Weighted Average Expenditure

observations 277 134Parking $7.06 na $7.06Food $12.73 $15.45 $14.09Beach Supplies $2.17 $0.91 $1.54Rentals $0.72 $0.77 $0.74Fishing $0.07 $0.04 $0.05Total Shopping $8.88 $7.07 $7.97

Average Total Expenditures $31.63 $24.24 $31.47

80 million

$2.5 billion

Average Expenditures

Visitors to Beaches in LA and OC in 2000

Rough Estimate (Overestimate) of Expenditures

Spring Summer Fall Spring Summer Fall1998 NA 3,193,008 815,827 381,898 1,497,542 431,6451999 759,731 3,012,545 684,228 383,651 1,216,503 282,9042000 1,102,640 2,939,177 623,030 317,768 1,233,953 249,605

Rough (overestimate) of lost expenditures1999 -$8.84 -$6.45 -$13.77 -$7.292000 -$12.44 -$9.45 -$3.14 -$12.92 -$8.92

Huntington City Beach Huntington State Beach

45% went to beach less, 14% stopped going to HB

Preliminary Results:The State of California and the Regional Water Quality Board are currently investigating methods to clean up the coastal waters in Santa Monica Bay and Orange County. Under the new program, beaches might still be posted because of stormwater problems, but beach closings from sewer spills would be eliminated in Los Angeles and Orange Counties.

If the program is approved, it would be paid for by an annual sewer surcharge. The voters would have to approve such a surcharge. The sewer surcharge would cost a household like yours about $[X1] to $[X2] per year, depending on the final design of the system. If the cost was $[X] would you vote for the program?

Results of the Willingness To Pay ?$/year sewer

taxPercentage Yes Percentage No

$10 88% 12%$25 86% 14%$35 82% 18%$50 74% 26%$75 72% 28%

$100 66% 34%$150 60% 40%

What The Model Will Do:

A Workable model that will predict and value

Beach VisitationEconomic Well-beingExpenditures

For a variety of scenarios concerning changes in

Beach AmenitiesTravel CostsWater Quality Beach Closures

Uses of Interest to the Coastal Commission

Valuing Public vs. Private AccessValuing RemotenessValuing Means of AccessValuing Acquisition of New Public BeachesValuing Loss of AccessValuing Beachside Development

www.uscbeach.organd

www.uscfish.org