meat case trends - pork checkoff fall 2014... · 2014 q2 total meat wm beef wm chicken wm pork beef...

Meat Case Trends

Retail Advisory Committee

Fall 2014

Today’s Presentation

Two parts:

• Total store pork sales from Nielsen/Perishables Group database

• Fresh meat (pork, beef, chicken) sales trends from FreshLook Marketing database

2

3

Data provided by the Perishables Group/Nielsen

Perishables Group Data:

Represents approximately 90% of projected ACV

All of U.S. and 8 standard regions (based on U.S. Census)

Data from all fresh food departments: deli, meat, seafood, produce, bakery

Data for key Food, Mass/Supercenter, and Club store chains

Part One: Total Store Pork Sales

4

Hierarchy by the Perishables Group/Nielsen

Category by Sub-Category

Fresh Pork Hams Bacon** Dinner Sausage Fully Cooked Pork Processed Lunchmeat

HamCenter Store

Fresh Ground Pork Canned Hams BaconEnds/Pieces Bratwurst Other Pork Cooked Frozen PorkHam/Leg Half Hams Regular Bacons Chorizo Patties BakedLoin Ham Cubes Canadian Bacons Healthy Smoked Sausage Pork Chitterlings SmokedOffal Pork Ham Offals Cooked Bacons Italian Sausage Pork Chops OtherOther Pork Ham Steaks/Slices Pork Bellies Knockwurst Pork Cutlets/Steaks Black ForestPicnic Shoulder Other Hams Linguica Pork Ribs HoneyShoulder Butt Quarter Hams Other Dinner Sausages Pork Roasts/Loins ProsciuttoSide Smoked Picnics Polish Sausage/Kielbasa Pork Skins Brown SugarValue-Added Pork* Whole Hams Smoked Sausage Capicolla

Chopped

Sub-Category by SegmentDeli Prepared Entrees

PorkDeli Bulk Meat - Ham

Deli Pre-Sliced Meat-Ham

BBQ Pork All Other Ham All Other HamKabobs Baked Ham Baked HamOther Black Forest Ham Black Forest HamPork Chop Bold Ham Bold HamRibs Brown Sugar Ham Brown Sugar HamRoast/Loins/Stews Cooked Ham Cooked Ham

Honey Ham Honey HamPork Smoked/ Cured HamSmoked/ Cured Ham Virginia HamVirginia Ham

*Note: Value-added fresh pork is pulled out as a separate category forComparability to FreshLook data in part 1 of the presentation.**Bacon category excludes turkey and beef bacon.

5

Frozen Meat - Pork0.1%

Deli Entrée's Pork0.9%

Deli Bulk Meat -Ham8.2%

Deli Pre Sliced -Ham0.9%

Processed Lunch Meat - Ham

7.6%

Fully Cooked Pork2.5%Dinner Sausages

16.4%

Bacon20.7%

Hams8.9%

Value Added Fresh Pork2.0%

Fresh Pork31.8%

Share of Dollar Sales52 weeks ending 7/26/2014

Source: Nielsen Perishables Group, 52 weeks ending 7/2014

6

Frozen Meat - Pork0.1%

Deli Entrée's Pork0.4%

Deli Bulk Meat -Ham4.6%

Deli Pre Sliced -Ham0.5%

Processed Lunch Meat - Ham

6.6%

Fully Cooked Pork1.7%

Dinner Sausages15.9%

Bacon14.6%

Hams13.4%Value Added Fresh

Pork1.7%

Fresh Pork40.5%

Share of Volume52 weeks ending 7/26/2014

Source: Nielsen Perishables Group, 52 weeks ending 7/2014

7

Change in Share of Sales and Volume

% Chg - Share of Dollars

% Chg - Share of Volume

Frozen Meat - Pork -17.0% -23.7%

Deli Entrée's Pork -3.7% -1.5%

Deli Bulk Meat - Ham -1.9% +0.8%

Deli Pre Sliced - Ham -5.1% -5.8%Processed Lunch Meat -Ham -3.5% +1.1%

Fully Cooked Pork -3.0% +3.7%

Dinner Sausages +0.1% +2.4%

Bacon +8.0% +2.0%

Hams -3.7% -1.4%

Value Added Fresh Pork -2.5% +0.9%

Fresh Pork -1.7% -1.4%

Source: Nielsen Perishables Group, 52 weeks ending 7/2014

8

Dollar Sales52 weeks ending 7/26/2014 vs YAGO

$0

$1

$1

$2

$2

$3

$3

$4

$4

$5

$5

FrozenMeat -Pork

DeliEntrée's

Pork

Deli BulkMeat -Ham

Deli PreSliced -

Ham

ProcessedLunchMeat -Ham

FullyCooked

Pork

DinnerSausages

Bacon Hams ValueAdded

Fresh Pork

Fresh Pork

Bill

ion

s, $

YE 7/26/2013 YE 7/26/2014

% chg -13.9% +1.0% +2.9% -0.5% +1.2% +1.7% +5.0% +13.2% +1.0% +2.2% +3.1%

Source: Nielsen Perishables Group, 52 weeks ending 7/2013 and 7/2014

9

Volume52 weeks ending 7/26/2014 vs YAGO

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

FrozenMeat -Pork

DeliEntrée's

Pork

Deli BulkMeat -Ham

Deli PreSliced -

Ham

ProcessedLunchMeat -Ham

FullyCooked

Pork

DinnerSausages

Bacon Hams ValueAdded

Fresh Pork

Fresh Pork

Mill

ion

s

YE 7/26/2013 YE 7/26/2014

% chg -25.2% -3.4% -1.1% -7.6% -0.8% +1.7% +0.4% 0.0% -3.4% -1.1% -3.3%

Source: Nielsen Perishables Group, 52 weeks ending 7/2013 and 7/2014

10

Average Price Per Pound52 weeks ending 7/26/2014 vs YAGO

$-

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00

FrozenMeat -Pork

DeliEntrée's

Pork

Deli BulkMeat -Ham

Deli PreSliced -

Ham

ProcessedLunchMeat -Ham

FullyCooked

Pork

DinnerSausages

Bacon Hams ValueAdded

Fresh Pork

Fresh Pork

YE 7/26/2013 YE 7/26/2014

% chg+16.4

%+4.6% +4.1% +7.7% +2.1% 0.0% +4.6% +13.2% +4.5% +3.3% +6.6%

Source: Nielsen Perishables Group, 52 weeks ending 7/2013 and 7/2014

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Data provided by the Meat Solutions VMMEAT® system sourced from FreshLook Marketing scanner data

FreshLook Data:Represents approximately 77% of the ACV

All of U.S. and 8 standard regions (based on U.S. Census)

Based heavily on chains with no independent grocers (fewer than 11 stores)

Includes Walmart , Sam’s Club, BJ’s Wholesale and Target; excludes other supercenter and club store formats, commissaries, dollar stores, and natural food stores

Definitions:Whole muscle product (also called minimally processed in FreshLook database) includes all product EXCEPT grinds, smoked/cured products such as ham and seasoned/marinated/flavored pork, chicken and beef. These items are categorized as further processed in FreshLook data.

Total meat includes all products, both minimally and further processed.

Part Two: Fresh Meat Sales Trends

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Dollar Sales, Volume, and Average Retail Price

Total Meat Case / Beef / Chicken / Beef Grinds / Pork

Dollar Sales – 4+ Year Trend by Quarter2010 to Q2 2014

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

Q12010

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12011

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12012

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12013

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12014

Q2

Total Meat WM Pork WM Chicken WM Beef Beef Grinds

13

$8,000

$9,000

$10,000

$11,000

$12,000

$13,000

$14,000

In M

illio

ns

Source: FreshLook MarketingWhole muscle product (also called minimally processed in FreshLook database) includes all product EXCEPT grinds, smoked/cured products such as ham and seasoned/marinated/flavored pork, chicken and beef. These items are categorized as further processed in FreshLook data.

300

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

Q12010

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12011

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12012

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12013

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12014

Q2

Total Meat WM Beef WM Chicken WM Pork Beef Grinds

14

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

In M

illio

ns

Volume – 4+ Year Trend by Quarter2010 to Q2 2014

Source: FreshLook MarketingWhole muscle product (also called minimally processed in FreshLook database) includes all product EXCEPT grinds, smoked/cured products such as ham and seasoned/marinated/flavored pork, chicken and beef. These items are categorized as further processed in FreshLook data.

15

Mill

ion

s

Dollar Sales Summary: Total Meat / Whole Muscle Meats / Beef Grinds

Source: FreshLook Marketing, Quarters 1 and 2, 2013 and 2014

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

Total Meat WM Beef WM Chicken Beef Grinds WM Pork

Q1 2013 Q1 2014

Q2 2013 Q2 2014

16

Mill

ion

s

Volume Summary: Total Meat / Whole Muscle Meats / Beef Grinds

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Total Meat WM Beef WM Chicken Beef Grinds WM Pork

Q1 2013 Q1 2014

Q2 2013 Q2 2014

Source: FreshLook Marketing, Quarters 1 and 2, 2013 and 2014

17

Average Retail Price Summary: Total Meat / Whole Muscle Meats / Beef Grinds

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

Total Meat WM Beef WM Chicken Beef Grinds WM Pork

Q1 2013 Q1 2014

Q2 2013 Q2 2014

Source: FreshLook Marketing, Quarters 1 and 2, 2013 and 2014

18

Protein SharesQuarters 1 and 2, 2013 vs 2014

All Other Chicken10.3%

Beef Grinds22.2%

WM Beef32.2%

WM Pork16.1%

WM Chicken Breast16.5%

Ham2.8%

19

Share of Dollar Sales(Quarters 1 and 2 2014 combined)

Sales(Billions)

% Change vs. YA

Share Change

vs. YA (% pts) Average Price% Change vs.

YA

WM Beef $6.72 4.2% -1.4% $5.78 7.1%

Beef Grinds $4.63 8.3% 2.5% $3.81 8.4%

WM Pork $3.37 3.8% -1.8% $3.05 9.5%

WM Chicken Breast $3.44 9.0% 3.1% $3.09 3.6%

All Other WM Chicken $2.15 4.2% -1.4% $1.62 4.1%

Ham $0.58 0.8% -4.6% $2.25 5.0%

Source: FreshLook Marketing, Q1 and 2 2014 combined vs YAG

All Other Chicken21.5%

Beef Grinds19.7%

WM Beef18.8%

WM Pork17.9%

WM Chicken Breast18.0%

Ham4.2%

20

Share of Volume(Quarters 1 and 2 2014 combined)

Pounds(B1.16illions)

% Change vs. YA

Share ChangeAverage Price

% Change vs. YAvs. YA (% pts)

WM Beef 1.16 -2.7% -1.9% $5.78 7.1%

Beef Grinds 1.21 -0.1% 0.7% $3.81 8.4%

WM Pork 1.10 -5.3% -4.5% $3.05 9.5%

WM Chicken Breast 1.11 5.2% 6.0% $3.09 3.6%

All Other WM Chicken 1.33 0.1% 0.9% $1.62 4.1%

Ham 0.26 -4.0% -3.2% $2.25 5.0%

Source: FreshLook Marketing, Q1 and 2 2014 combined vs YAG

21

Select ItemsDollar Sales / Volume / Average Price

22

Selected Items Across Species: Dollar Sales(Q1 2013 vs Q1 2014) and (Q2 2013 vs Q2 2014)

Mill

ion

s $

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

Pork Chops Chicken Breasts Beef Steaks

Q1 2013 Q1 2014

Q2 2013 Q2 2014

Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2

% Chg vs YA +8.9% +3.5% +10.7% +7.3% +4.7% +2.8%

Avg. Price $3.29 $3.74 $3.05 $3.14 $6.62 $7.19

% Chg Price +0.7% +16.5% +3.2% +4.0% +5.5% +9.9%

Source: FreshLook Marketing, Q1 and Q2 2014 vs YAG for both quarters

23

Selected Items Across Species: Volume(Q1 2013 vs Q1 2014) and (Q2 2013 vs Q2 2014)

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

Pork Chops Chicken Breasts Beef Steaks

Q1 2013 Q1 2014

Q2 2013 Q2 2014

Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2

% Chg vs YA +8.1% -11.2% +7.3% +3.1% -0.7% -6.5%

Avg. Price $3.29 $3.74 $3.05 $3.14 $6.62 $7.19

% Chg Price +0.7% +16.5% +3.2% +4.0% +5.5% +9.9%

Source: FreshLook Marketing, Q1 and Q2 2014 vs YAG for both quarters

24

Selected Pork Chops: Dollar Sales (Q1 2013 vs Q1 2014) and (Q2 2013 vs Q2 2014)

Mill

ion

s $

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

New York Ribeye Porterhouse T-Bone

Q1 2013 Q1 2014

Q2 2013 Q2 2014

Source: FreshLook Marketing, Q1 and Q2 2014 vs YAG for both quarters

Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2

% Chg vs YA +6.9% +2.6% +8.4% +6.2% +7.0% +9.5% +8.8% -1.2%

Avg. Price $3.59 $4.26 $3.80 $4.15 $3.59 $4.03 $3.71 $4.17

% Chg Price +1.8% +15.4% +1.2% +11.7% +3.9% +15.6% +2.1% +16.6%

25

Selected Pork Chops: Volume(Q1 2013 vs Q1 2014) and (Q2 2013 vs Q2 2014)

Mill

ion

s

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

New York Ribeye Porterhouse T-Bone

Q1 2013 Q1 2014

Q2 2013 Q2 2014

Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2

% Chg vs YA +5.0% -11.1% +7.0% -4.9% +3.0% -5.3% +6.6% -15.2%

Avg. Price $3.59 $4.26 $3.80 $4.15 $3.59 $4.03 $3.71 $4.17

% Chg Price +1.8% +15.4% +1.2% +11.7% +3.9% +15.6% +2.1% +16.6%

Source: FreshLook Marketing, Q1 and Q2 2014 vs YAG for both quarters

26

Ribs: Dollar Sales (Q1 2013 vs Q1 2014) and (Q2 2013 vs Q2 2014)

Mill

ion

s $

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

Back Ribs Country Style Ribs Spareribs St.Louis Style

Q1 2013 Q1 2014

Q2 2013 Q2 2014

Source: FreshLook Marketing, Q1 and Q2 2014 vs YAG for both quarters

Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2

% Chg vs YA -5.1% +13.4% +9.4% -3.7% -12.1% +0.9% +22.2% +39.7%

Avg. Price $3.55 $3.67 $2.59 $3.05 $2.35 $2.41 $3.17 $3.09

% Chg Price +5.0% +2.0% -0.1% +25.8% +1.2% +10.3% -5.3% +9.2%

27

Ribs: Volume(Q1 2013 vs Q1 2014) and (Q2 2013 vs Q2 2014)

Mill

ion

s

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Back Ribs Country Style Ribs Spareribs St.Louis Style

Q1 2013 Q1 2014

Q2 2013 Q2 2014

Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2

% Chg vs YA -9.6% +11.2% +9.6% -23.5% -13.1% -8.5% +29.0% +12.1%

Avg. Price $3.55 $3.67 $2.59 $3.05 $2.35 $2.41 $3.17 $3.09

% Chg Price +5.0% +2.0% -0.1% +25.8% +1.2% +10.3% -5.3% +9.2%

Source: FreshLook Marketing, Q1 and Q2 2014 vs YAG for both quarters

28

Whole/Half Loins, Tenderloins and Loin Roasts: Dollar Sales(Q1 2013 vs Q1 2014) and (Q2 2013 vs Q2 2014)

Mill

ion

s $

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

Whole/Half Loin Tenderloin Bone-In Roasts Boneless Roasts

Q1 2013 Q1 2014

Q2 2013 Q2 2014

Source: FreshLook Marketing, Q1 and Q2 2014 vs YAG for both quarters

Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2

% Chg vs YA -15.9% -18.1% +14.2% +11.2% -13.8% -10.8% -6.9% +4.5%

Avg. Price $2.23 $2.62 $4.46 $4.73 $2.59 $2.81 $3.63 $3.92

% Chg Price +3.1% +20.2% -0.8% +7.1% -4.2% +12.2% -2.1% +9.5%

29

Whole/Half Loins, Tenderloins and Loin Roasts: Volume(Q1 2013 vs Q1 2014) and (Q2 2013 vs Q2 2014)

Mill

ion

s

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Whole/Half Loin Tenderloin Bone-In Roasts Boneless Roasts

Q1 2013 Q1 2014

Q2 2013 Q2 2014

Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2

% Chg vs YA -18.4% -31.8% +15.2% +3.8% -10.1% -4.6% -4.9% -20.5%

Avg. Price $2.23 $2.62 $4.46 $4.73 $2.59 $2.81 $3.63 $3.92

% Chg Price +3.1% +20.2% -0.8% +7.1% -4.2% +12.2% -2.1% +9.5%

Source: FreshLook Marketing, Q1 and Q2 2014 vs YAG for both quarters

30

Shoulder: Dollar Sales(Q1 2013 vs Q1 2014) and (Q2 2013 vs Q2 2014)

Mill

ion

s $

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

Shoulder Roast Picnic Roast Steak Whole

Q1 2013 Q1 2014

Q2 2013 Q2 2014

Source: FreshLook Marketing, Q1 and Q2 2014 vs YAG for both quarters

Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2

% Chg vs YA +3.8% +4.1% +18.7% +20.2% +10.2% +3.7% -2.2% +7.6%

Avg. Price $2.15 $2.56 $1.93 $2.28 $2.40 $2.95 $1.73 $2.15

% Chg Price +4.4% +26.7% -3.8% +20.7% +1.7% +27.8% +7.6% +42.6%

31

Shoulder: Volume(Q1 2013 vs Q1 2014) and (Q2 2013 vs Q2 2014)

Mill

ion

s

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Shoulder Roast Picnic Roast Steak Whole

Q1 2013 Q1 2014

Q2 2013 Q2 2014

Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2

% $ vs YA -0.6% -17.8% +23.4% -0.4% +8.4% -18.9% -9.2% -24.6%

Avg. Price $2.15 $2.56 $1.93 $2.28 $2.40 $2.95 $1.73 $2.15

% Chg Price +4.4% +26.7% -3.8% +20.7% +1.7% +27.8% +7.6% +42.6%

Source: FreshLook Marketing, Q1 and Q2 2014 vs YAG for both quarters

This message funded by America’s Pork Checkoff Program.

Questions?

32

33

FLM Data Appendix

WM Beef, 31.8%

Beef Grinds, 22.6%

All Other WM Chicken, 10.6%

WM Chicken Breasts, 16.9%

WM Pork, 16.0%

Ham, 2.0%

34

Share of Dollar Sales(Quarter 1 2014)

Source: FreshLook Marketing, Q1 2014 vs YAG

Sales(Billions)

% Change vs. YA

Share ChangeAverage Price

% Change vs. YAvs. YA (% pts)

WM Beef 3.2 +3.1% -0.5% $5.46 +4.4%

Beef Grinds 2.3 +7.4% +3.7% $3.69 +5.0%

WM Pork 1.6 +4.8% +1.2% $2.89 +2.2%

WM Chicken Breast 1.7 +10.7% +6.9% $3.05 +3.2%

All Other WM Chicken 1.1 +4.5% +0.9% $1.62 +4.7%

Ham 0.2 -47.8% -49.6% $2.39 +17.2%

All other chicken, 21.6%

Beef grinds, 20.1%

WM Beef, 19.1%

WM Pork, 18.2%

Breast 18.2%

Ham, 2.8%

35

Share of Volume(Quarter 1 2014)

Pounds(Millions)

% Change vs. YA

Share ChangeAverage Price

% Change vs. YAvs. YA (% pts)

WM Beef 590 -1.3% +0.3% $5.46 +4.4%

Beef Grinds 621 +2.3% +4.0% $3.69 +5.0%

WM Pork 560 +2.5% +4.2% $2.89 +2.2%

WM Chicken Breast 562 +7.3% +9.0% $3.05 +3.2%

All Other WM Chicken 665 -0.2% +1.4% $1.62 +4.7%

Ham 86 -55.5% -54.8% $2.39 +17.2%

Source: FreshLook Marketing, Q1 2014 vs YAG

All other WM chicken 10.6%

Beef Grinds 23.1%

WM Beef 34.6%

WM Pork 17.3%

Chicken breast, 17.1%

Ham 3.7%

36

Share of Dollar Sales(Quarter 2 2014)

Sales(Billions)

% Change vs. YA

Share Change

vs. YA (% pts) Average Price% Change vs.

YA

WM Beef 3.5 +5.3% +1.6% $6.11 +9.8%

Beef Grinds 2.3 +9.1% +5.3% $3.94 +11.9%

WM Pork 1.8 +2.8% -0.8% $3.23 +17.1%

WM Chicken Breast 1.7 +7.3% +3.6% $3.14 +4.0%

All Other WM Chicken 1.1 +3.9% +0.3% $1.62 +3.4%

Ham* 0.4 +107.9% +100.7% $2.17 -9.3%

*NOTE: large differences in ham due to Easter holiday falling in Q1’13 and Q2’14Source: FreshLook Marketing, Q2 2014 vs YAG

All Other WM Chicken, 21.4%

Beef grinds, 19.2%

WM Beef, 18.6%

WM Pork, 17.6%

WM Chicken Breast17.8%

Ham, 5.5%

37

Share of Volume(Quarter 2 2014)

Pounds(Millions)

% Change vs. YA

Share ChangeAverage Price

% Change vs. YAvs. YA (% pts)

WM Beef 573 -4.1% -2.6% $6.11 +9.8%

Beef Grinds 593 -2.5% -0.9% $3.94 +11.9%

WM Pork 542 -12.2% -10.8% $3.23 +17.1%

WM Chicken Breast 551 +3.1% +4.8% $3.14 +4.0%

All Other WM Chicken 661 +0.5% +2.1% $1.62 +3.4%

Ham 171 +129.3% +133.0% $2.17 -9.3%

*NOTE: large differences in ham due to Easter holiday falling in Q1’13 and Q2’14Source: FreshLook Marketing, Q2 2014 vs YAG