mark earls main stage - 2011

Main  Stage,  November  3,  2011  

HERD Less is more Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy

A  Presenta*on  from  the  Fes*val  of  NewMR  Main  Stage  –  November  3,  2011  

HERD

Less is more Source: Clark Little

Mark Earls AKA @herdmeister Festival of New MR November 2011

Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)

q. are your markets shaped by independent or social choice?

...by what goes on between their ears or between them?

Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UKFestival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)"

“...it’s self-evident that behaviour is shaped by what goes on between our ears”

Phil Barden, debate in Contagious

Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UKFestival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)"

a map built on data patterns

social learning

awfully nice chaps

Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)

the missing piece of the jigsaw

Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)

7 7 less = more

market-level patterns reveal what lies beneath (not vice-versa)

traditional research insight here

we start here

Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)

9

...Independent Choice? I discover and buy a product independently of my peers. Its superiority to other options and what I’m already using is immediately clear.

...Copying others? I discover and buy a product through my peers. The product may not be clearly superior. Its social value may be greater.

is your market shaped by...

or

9 Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK

Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)

10 10

short-tail distribution long-tail distribution Very few items account for most of the market volume

Large number of items have decent share of market volume

compare and contrast

Independent Copying

Conversely, few have a very low share Many items in tail

with small share

Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)

11

a very simple way to plot markets

rapid turnover of popularity

short-tail distribution Independent

long-tail distribution short-tail distribution Copying

Popular music downloads

Spirits

Charitable giving

Deodorants

Car Insurance

11 Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK

Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)

12

rapid turnover of popularity

short-tail distribution Independent

long-tail distribution short-tail distribution Copying

Popular music downloads

Charitable giving Car Insurance

Spirits

Deodorants

12

a very simple way to plot markets

Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)

13

Copying Experts

Copying Peers

Guesswork

Considered choice

Independent

Adapted from Bentley Earls O’Brien “I’ll have what she’s having” MIT Press 2011

Few choices

Many choices

Copying

14

Few choices

Many choices

Copying Independent

31

popular music downloads

charitable giving

auto Insurance

deodorants

Considered choice

15

Few choices

Many choices

Copying Independent

31

plotting multiple markets/regions

16

Few choices

Many choices

Copying Independent

31

Copying Experts

Copying Peers

Considered choice

Guesswork

what KIND of thing are you dealing with?

17

“ . . . In that Empire, the Art of Cartography attained such Perfection that the map of a single Province occupied the entirety of a City, and the map of the Empire, the entirety of a Province. In time, those Unconscionable Maps no longer satisfied, and the Cartographers Guilds struck a Map of the Empire whose size was that of the Empire, and which coincided point for point with it. The following Generations, who were not so fond of the Study of Cartography as their Forebears had been, saw that that vast Map was Useless, and not without some Pitilessness was it, that they delivered it up to the Inclemencies of Sun and Winters. In the Deserts of the West, still today, there are Tattered Ruins of that Map, inhabited by Animals and Beggars; in all the Land there is no other Relic of the Disciplines of Geography” On Exactitude in Science [JL Borges]

Source: Pedro Meyer

Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)

18

Few choices

Many choices

Copying Independent

31 18

Yes*

Maybe

No

No

where is traditional research

appropriate?

less really is more

Source: Clark Little

20

§

31 Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)

Q & A

Mark Earls HERD Consultancy

Ray Poynter���Vision Critical

Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)

Main  Stage,  November  3,  2011  

HERD Less is more Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy

A  Presenta*on  from  the  Fes*val  of  NewMR  Main  Stage  –  November  3,  2011