mark earls main stage - 2011
TRANSCRIPT
Main Stage, November 3, 2011
HERD Less is more Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy
A Presenta*on from the Fes*val of NewMR Main Stage – November 3, 2011
HERD
Less is more Source: Clark Little
Mark Earls AKA @herdmeister Festival of New MR November 2011
Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)
q. are your markets shaped by independent or social choice?
...by what goes on between their ears or between them?
Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UKFestival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)"
“...it’s self-evident that behaviour is shaped by what goes on between our ears”
Phil Barden, debate in Contagious
Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UKFestival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)"
a map built on data patterns
social learning
awfully nice chaps
Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)
the missing piece of the jigsaw
Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)
7 7 less = more
market-level patterns reveal what lies beneath (not vice-versa)
traditional research insight here
we start here
Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)
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...Independent Choice? I discover and buy a product independently of my peers. Its superiority to other options and what I’m already using is immediately clear.
...Copying others? I discover and buy a product through my peers. The product may not be clearly superior. Its social value may be greater.
is your market shaped by...
or
9 Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK
Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)
10 10
short-tail distribution long-tail distribution Very few items account for most of the market volume
Large number of items have decent share of market volume
compare and contrast
Independent Copying
Conversely, few have a very low share Many items in tail
with small share
Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)
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a very simple way to plot markets
rapid turnover of popularity
short-tail distribution Independent
long-tail distribution short-tail distribution Copying
Popular music downloads
Spirits
Charitable giving
Deodorants
Car Insurance
11 Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK
Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)
12
rapid turnover of popularity
short-tail distribution Independent
long-tail distribution short-tail distribution Copying
Popular music downloads
Charitable giving Car Insurance
Spirits
Deodorants
12
a very simple way to plot markets
Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)
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Copying Experts
Copying Peers
Guesswork
Considered choice
Independent
Adapted from Bentley Earls O’Brien “I’ll have what she’s having” MIT Press 2011
Few choices
Many choices
Copying
14
Few choices
Many choices
Copying Independent
31
popular music downloads
charitable giving
auto Insurance
deodorants
Considered choice
15
Few choices
Many choices
Copying Independent
31
plotting multiple markets/regions
16
Few choices
Many choices
Copying Independent
31
Copying Experts
Copying Peers
Considered choice
Guesswork
what KIND of thing are you dealing with?
17
“ . . . In that Empire, the Art of Cartography attained such Perfection that the map of a single Province occupied the entirety of a City, and the map of the Empire, the entirety of a Province. In time, those Unconscionable Maps no longer satisfied, and the Cartographers Guilds struck a Map of the Empire whose size was that of the Empire, and which coincided point for point with it. The following Generations, who were not so fond of the Study of Cartography as their Forebears had been, saw that that vast Map was Useless, and not without some Pitilessness was it, that they delivered it up to the Inclemencies of Sun and Winters. In the Deserts of the West, still today, there are Tattered Ruins of that Map, inhabited by Animals and Beggars; in all the Land there is no other Relic of the Disciplines of Geography” On Exactitude in Science [JL Borges]
Source: Pedro Meyer
Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)
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Few choices
Many choices
Copying Independent
31 18
Yes*
Maybe
No
No
where is traditional research
appropriate?
less really is more
Source: Clark Little
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31 Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)
Q & A
Mark Earls HERD Consultancy
Ray Poynter���Vision Critical
Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)
Main Stage, November 3, 2011
HERD Less is more Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy
A Presenta*on from the Fes*val of NewMR Main Stage – November 3, 2011