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March 6-11, 2017 Victoria, Canada

Introduction PAST Conclusions FUTURE

Global climate change

Atmospheric temperature change (1950-2014) – NASA.gov Video

PRESENT

Introduction Conclusions

Global climate change

PAST FUTURE PRESENT

Introduction Conclusions

Anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus)

• Fast growth • High mortality • High fecundity (batch spawner) • Short life cycle • Max. lifespan of 4 years

Good biological indicator

PAST FUTURE PRESENT

Introduction Conclusions

Anchovy distribution variations

Montero-Serra et al., (2015)

Bellier et al., (2007)

Fisheries-independent data from International Bottom Trawl Surveys (IBTS) between 1965 to 2012

PAST FUTURE PRESENT

Introduction

Conclusions

Anchovy distribution future projections

Lenoir et al., (2011)

PAST FUTURE PRESENT

Introduction Conclusions

Current habitat

modelling

Projections under RCP8.5 climate change scenario

PAST

PRESENT

FUTURE

trends analysis

*CoG Population Center of Gravity

Spawning - peak Spawning - CoG*

1

2

3

Objectives

PAST FUTURE PRESENT

Sampling grid

Observations

Environmental factors

+ +

RCP8.5 climate change scenario Anchovy eggs

distribution

Peak of spawning

Peak of spawning

Introduction Conclusions

Peak of spawning Spawning CoG

ANEBIO (1987-2015) BIOMAN (1990-2014) +

PAST FUTURE PRESENT

Introduction Conclusions

Peak of spawning period

Peak of spawning Spawning CoG

PAST FUTURE PRESENT

Introduction Conclusions

Peak spawning period

a)

FUTURE PRESENT

Peak of spawning Spawning CoG

PAST

Introduction Conclusions

BIOMAN (1989-2015) Eggs

Spatio-temporal variables

eggs observations

PA* ED

*PA = Presence/Absence

ED = Egg Density (abundance) Spatial: - Latitude - Log(Bathymetry) Temporal: - Year

+

FUTURE PRESENT

Peak of spawning Spawning CoG

PAST

Introduction Conclusions FUTURE PRESENT

Peak of spawning Spawning CoG

PAST

Introduction Conclusions

BIOMAN (1989-2015) Eggs

Spatio-temporal variables

eggs observations

PA* ED

*PA = Presence/Absence

ED = Egg Density (abundance) Spatial: - Latitude - Log(Bathymetry) Temporal: - Year

Sea Surface Temperature

Density-dependence dynamics

+

FUTURE PRESENT

Peak of spawning Spawning CoG

PAST

Introduction Conclusions

Spawning distribution variations

FUTURE PRESENT

Peak of spawning Spawning CoG

PAST

Introduction Conclusions

Spawning distribution variations

Peak of spawning Spawning CoG

PAST FUTURE PRESENT

Introduction Conclusions

Spawning habitat modelling

environmental variables

eggs observations

PA ED

SST SSS MLD

Log(Bathymetry) Log(Chlorophyl-a)

Lat, Long

+

BIOMAN (1989-2015)

PAST FUTURE PRESENT

Introduction Conclusions

gam<- gam(LogEP ~ s(Lat, Long) + s(SST, k=3) + s(SSS, k=3) + MLD + s(LogChla, k=3) + s(LogBathy, k=3), family=gaussian)

Spawning habitat modelling

Present (2006-2020)

Dev. Expl. PA: 48% ED: 58%

PAST FUTURE

Spawning habitat modelling

PRESENT

Projections

Future

SST ref.

Introduction Conclusions

Mid-of-the-century (2040-2055) End-of-the-century (2080-2099)

SST fut.

+ ∆ SST

Present

Mid-of-the-century (2040-2059)

End-of-the-century (2080-2099)

SST (ºC) SSS (psu) MLD (m) SST (ºC) SSS (psu) MLD (m)

0.52±0.28 -0.30±0.13 -7.48±8.31 1.51±0.71 -0.57±0.35 -12.40±12.84

Future

or

PAST FUTURE PRESENT

Introduction Conclusions

Spawning distribution future projections

Mid-century (2040-2055)

End-of-century (2080-2099)

1.53 x 2.56 x

PAST FUTURE PRESENT

Projections

Introduction Conclusions

Spawning distribution future projections

Total egg production PA (%) LogED

(%) PRESENT MIDCENT FUTURE

Change Midcent

Change Future

All variables 48.4 58.1 82,614 125,984 211,854 1.53 x 2.56 x

All variables – MLD 47.3 57.6 82,361 124,545 198,106 1.51 x 2.40 x

All variables – LogBathy 48 57.5 79,223 105,634 174,498 1.33 x 2.20 x

PAST FUTURE PRESENT

Projections

Introduction Conclusions

Conclusions

• No phenological changes (1987-2015) • No population CoG shift (1989-2015) • Population CoG variations highly correlated with density-

dependent dynamics

Past

• Our model explained 58.1% of the total deviance • Spawning is closely related to river plumes (Adour, Gironde) Present

• ++ effects for BB anchovy spawning • Increase 1.5 and 2.5 times (mid-century / end-of-the-century)

Future

PAST FUTURE PRESENT

Thank you very much!

March 6-11, 2017 Victoria, Canada