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March 6-11, 2017 Victoria, Canada
Introduction PAST Conclusions FUTURE
Global climate change
Atmospheric temperature change (1950-2014) – NASA.gov Video
PRESENT
Introduction Conclusions
Global climate change
PAST FUTURE PRESENT
Introduction Conclusions
Anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus)
• Fast growth • High mortality • High fecundity (batch spawner) • Short life cycle • Max. lifespan of 4 years
Good biological indicator
PAST FUTURE PRESENT
Introduction Conclusions
Anchovy distribution variations
Montero-Serra et al., (2015)
Bellier et al., (2007)
Fisheries-independent data from International Bottom Trawl Surveys (IBTS) between 1965 to 2012
PAST FUTURE PRESENT
Introduction
Conclusions
Anchovy distribution future projections
Lenoir et al., (2011)
PAST FUTURE PRESENT
Introduction Conclusions
Current habitat
modelling
Projections under RCP8.5 climate change scenario
PAST
PRESENT
FUTURE
trends analysis
*CoG Population Center of Gravity
Spawning - peak Spawning - CoG*
1
2
3
Objectives
PAST FUTURE PRESENT
Sampling grid
Observations
Environmental factors
+ +
RCP8.5 climate change scenario Anchovy eggs
distribution
Peak of spawning
Peak of spawning
Introduction Conclusions
Peak of spawning Spawning CoG
ANEBIO (1987-2015) BIOMAN (1990-2014) +
PAST FUTURE PRESENT
Introduction Conclusions
Peak of spawning period
Peak of spawning Spawning CoG
PAST FUTURE PRESENT
Introduction Conclusions
Peak spawning period
a)
FUTURE PRESENT
Peak of spawning Spawning CoG
PAST
Introduction Conclusions
BIOMAN (1989-2015) Eggs
Spatio-temporal variables
eggs observations
PA* ED
*PA = Presence/Absence
ED = Egg Density (abundance) Spatial: - Latitude - Log(Bathymetry) Temporal: - Year
+
FUTURE PRESENT
Peak of spawning Spawning CoG
PAST
Introduction Conclusions FUTURE PRESENT
Peak of spawning Spawning CoG
PAST
Introduction Conclusions
BIOMAN (1989-2015) Eggs
Spatio-temporal variables
eggs observations
PA* ED
*PA = Presence/Absence
ED = Egg Density (abundance) Spatial: - Latitude - Log(Bathymetry) Temporal: - Year
Sea Surface Temperature
Density-dependence dynamics
+
FUTURE PRESENT
Peak of spawning Spawning CoG
PAST
Introduction Conclusions
Spawning distribution variations
FUTURE PRESENT
Peak of spawning Spawning CoG
PAST
Introduction Conclusions
Spawning distribution variations
Peak of spawning Spawning CoG
PAST FUTURE PRESENT
Introduction Conclusions
Spawning habitat modelling
environmental variables
eggs observations
PA ED
SST SSS MLD
Log(Bathymetry) Log(Chlorophyl-a)
Lat, Long
+
BIOMAN (1989-2015)
PAST FUTURE PRESENT
Introduction Conclusions
gam<- gam(LogEP ~ s(Lat, Long) + s(SST, k=3) + s(SSS, k=3) + MLD + s(LogChla, k=3) + s(LogBathy, k=3), family=gaussian)
Spawning habitat modelling
Present (2006-2020)
Dev. Expl. PA: 48% ED: 58%
PAST FUTURE
Spawning habitat modelling
PRESENT
Projections
Future
SST ref.
Introduction Conclusions
Mid-of-the-century (2040-2055) End-of-the-century (2080-2099)
SST fut.
+ ∆ SST
Present
Mid-of-the-century (2040-2059)
End-of-the-century (2080-2099)
SST (ºC) SSS (psu) MLD (m) SST (ºC) SSS (psu) MLD (m)
0.52±0.28 -0.30±0.13 -7.48±8.31 1.51±0.71 -0.57±0.35 -12.40±12.84
Future
or
PAST FUTURE PRESENT
Introduction Conclusions
Spawning distribution future projections
Mid-century (2040-2055)
End-of-century (2080-2099)
1.53 x 2.56 x
PAST FUTURE PRESENT
Projections
Introduction Conclusions
Spawning distribution future projections
Total egg production PA (%) LogED
(%) PRESENT MIDCENT FUTURE
Change Midcent
Change Future
All variables 48.4 58.1 82,614 125,984 211,854 1.53 x 2.56 x
All variables – MLD 47.3 57.6 82,361 124,545 198,106 1.51 x 2.40 x
All variables – LogBathy 48 57.5 79,223 105,634 174,498 1.33 x 2.20 x
PAST FUTURE PRESENT
Projections
Introduction Conclusions
Conclusions
• No phenological changes (1987-2015) • No population CoG shift (1989-2015) • Population CoG variations highly correlated with density-
dependent dynamics
Past
• Our model explained 58.1% of the total deviance • Spawning is closely related to river plumes (Adour, Gironde) Present
• ++ effects for BB anchovy spawning • Increase 1.5 and 2.5 times (mid-century / end-of-the-century)
Future
PAST FUTURE PRESENT
Thank you very much!
March 6-11, 2017 Victoria, Canada