leveraging existing watershed models for flood forecasting … · 2018-06-07 · leveraging...
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Leveraging Existing Watershed Models
for Flood Forecasting Purposes
FSA 2018 Annual Conference
Sanibel Harbour Marriott
Fort Myers, Florida (June 13 – 15)
Peter J. Singhofen, P.E.
Streamline Technologies, Inc.
psinghofen@icpr4.com
2 © 2018, Streamline Technologies, Inc.
Hurricane Irma Flooding
Altamonte Springs
Leveraging Existing Watershed Models for Flood Forecasting
3 © 2018, Streamline Technologies, Inc.
Hurricane Irma Flooding
Westside Manor, Orange County
Leveraging Existing Watershed Models for Flood Forecasting
4 © 2018, Streamline Technologies, Inc.
Tropical Storm Debby Flooding
Suncoast Parkway, Hernando County
Leveraging Existing Watershed Models for Flood Forecasting
5 © 2018, Streamline Technologies, Inc.
1. Can existing watershed models be leveraged
for flood forecasting purposes?
2. Are reliable and reasonably accurate forecast
data readily available?
3. Can the process be automated?
Detailed watershed models are available
for each of the previous examples
Leveraging Existing Watershed Models for Flood Forecasting
6 © 2018, Streamline Technologies, Inc.
Completed
SWFWMD
floodplain
mapping
(mostly with
ICPR models)
Orange County
ICPR watershed
models
The State of Florida
is data rich.
Extensive
infrastructure
inventories and
models are available
across the state,
including hundreds
of ICPR models.
Leveraging Existing Watershed Models for Flood Forecasting
7 © 2018, Streamline Technologies, Inc.
The National Water Model (NWM)
Leveraging Existing Watershed Models for Flood Forecasting
8 © 2018, Streamline Technologies, Inc.
National Water Model
Gridded Forcing Data Products (Rainfall)
Near Real Time (72 files per day)
Present Time Minus 1 Hour (Radar Only)
Present Time Minus 3 Hours (Gauge Adjusted)
Short Range Forecast (432 files per day)
Forecast Duration: 18 hours in 1-hour Increments
Forecast Frequency: Every hour
Medium Range Forecast (960 files per day)
Forecast Duration: 10 days in 1-hour Increments
Forecast Frequency: Every 6 hours
Leveraging Existing Watershed Models for Flood Forecasting
9 © 2018, Streamline Technologies, Inc.
How Does it Work?
NWM DATA
REPOSITORY MOST RECENT
24-HR PERIOD
DATA
RETRIEVAL APP PRE-PROCESS
NWM DATA
HOURLY
UPLOAD
HOURLY
PURGE (FIFO)
HOURLY
DOWNLOAD
HOURLY UPDATE
REDUCED
DATASET TO
LOCAL MODEL
HOURLY
PURGE (FIFO)
Leveraging Existing Watershed Models for Flood Forecasting
10 © 2018, Streamline Technologies, Inc.
How Does it Work?
Base Model
Short Range Forecast Model
Medium Range Forecast Model
Leveraging Existing Watershed Models for Flood Forecasting
11 © 2018, Streamline Technologies, Inc.
Rainfall Accuracy (Irma)
Near Real Time Rainfall Comparison
Radar Only strong and consistent low bias
Gauge Adjusted some improvement, but minimal
Leveraging Existing Watershed Models for Flood Forecasting
12 © 2018, Streamline Technologies, Inc.
Rainfall Accuracy (Irma) Short Range Forecast Comparison
18 Hours Ahead of Peak Flood Levels overall correlation is very poor
(R2 = 0.05)
Leveraging Existing Watershed Models for Flood Forecasting
13 © 2018, Streamline Technologies, Inc.
Rainfall Accuracy (Irma) Medium Range Forecast Comparison
3 Days Ahead of Peak Floods overall correlation is poor
(R2 = 0.20)
2 Days Ahead of Peak Floods overall correlation is good
(R2 = 0.66)
Leveraging Existing Watershed Models for Flood Forecasting
14 © 2018, Streamline Technologies, Inc.
Example: Little Wekiva River Watershed
• Highly urbanized watershed in
Orange and Seminole Counties
(54.3 square miles)
• No changes to H&H
• Model setup steps
1. Import ICPR3 project to ICPR4
2. Georeference hydraulic data
3. Import basin map layer
4. Import NWM fishnet map layer
5. Intersect basins & fishnet
Leveraging Existing Watershed Models for Flood Forecasting
15 © 2018, Streamline Technologies, Inc.
Example: Little Wekiva River Watershed
Leveraging Existing Watershed Models for Flood Forecasting
16 © 2018, Streamline Technologies, Inc.
Example: Little Wekiva River Watershed
Simulated Flood Extents During
Hurricane Irma
Leveraging Existing Watershed Models for Flood Forecasting
17 © 2018, Streamline Technologies, Inc.
Example: Little Wekiva River Watershed
FORECASTS ISSUED:
SEPT. 08 at 0800 hrs
SEPT. 09 at 0800 hrs
SEPT. 10 at 0800 hrs
Rain Gauges
Short Range
Forecast
Medium Range
Forecasts
Hurricane Irma
Leveraging Existing Watershed Models for Flood Forecasting
18 © 2018, Streamline Technologies, Inc.
Example: Little Wekiva River Watershed
Surveyed
HWM Base Model
FORECASTS ISSUED:
SEPT. 08 at 0800 hrs
67 hrs
Medium Range
Forecast
Hurricane Irma
Leveraging Existing Watershed Models for Flood Forecasting
19 © 2018, Streamline Technologies, Inc.
Example: Little Wekiva River Watershed
Surveyed
HWM
FORECASTS ISSUED:
SEPT. 09 at 0800 hrs
43 hrs
Medium Range
Forecast
Hurricane Irma
Base Model
Leveraging Existing Watershed Models for Flood Forecasting
20 © 2018, Streamline Technologies, Inc.
Example: Little Wekiva River Watershed
Surveyed
HWM
FORECASTS ISSUED:
SEPT. 10 at 0800 hrs
19 hrs
Short Range
Forecast
Hurricane Irma
Base Model
Leveraging Existing Watershed Models for Flood Forecasting
21 © 2018, Streamline Technologies, Inc.
Example: Little Wekiva River Watershed
SR
43
6
Hurricane Irma
Leveraging Existing Watershed Models for Flood Forecasting
22 © 2018, Streamline Technologies, Inc. Leveraging Existing Watershed Models for Flood Forecasting
• No changes to original basic H&H data
• Model uses curve number method and does
not include groundwater, consequently it
cannot be used for continuous simulation
• It is very fast and good for approaching storm
systems
< 30 secs for short range forecast
5 – 6 mins for medium range forecast
Example: Little Wekiva River Watershed
23 © 2018, Streamline Technologies, Inc.
Example: Alligator Creek Watershed
• Highly urbanized watershed in
Pinellas County
• 8.6 square miles
• Replaced percolation links with
2D groundwater
Leveraging Existing Watershed Models for Flood Forecasting
24 © 2018, Streamline Technologies, Inc.
Example: Alligator Creek Watershed
HW 19
GAUGE
KAPOK
GAUGE
ALLIGATOR
CREEK
Leveraging Existing Watershed Models for Flood Forecasting
25 © 2018, Streamline Technologies, Inc.
Example: Alligator Creek Watershed
Observed
ICPR4
Hurricane
Irma ~ 10 days
Leveraging Existing Watershed Models for Flood Forecasting
26 © 2018, Streamline Technologies, Inc.
Example: Alligator Creek Watershed
Short Range
Forecast Observed
Medium Range
Forecasts
FORECASTS ISSUED:
SEPT. 08 at 0800 hrs
SEPT. 09 at 0800 hrs
SEPT. 10 at 0800 hrs
Hurricane Irma
Leveraging Existing Watershed Models for Flood Forecasting
27 © 2018, Streamline Technologies, Inc.
Example: Alligator Creek Watershed
Short Range
Forecast
Observed
Medium Range
Forecasts
FORECASTS ISSUED:
SEPT. 08 at 0800 hrs
SEPT. 09 at 0800 hrs
SEPT. 10 at 0800 hrs
Hurricane Irma
Leveraging Existing Watershed Models for Flood Forecasting
28 © 2018, Streamline Technologies, Inc.
Example: Alligator Creek Watershed
Short Range
Forecast
Observed
Medium Range
Forecasts
70 hrs
46 hrs
19 hrs
Hurricane Irma
Leveraging Existing Watershed Models for Flood Forecasting
29 © 2018, Streamline Technologies, Inc.
Example: Westside Manor, Orange County
Hurricane Irma Flooding
30 © 2018, Streamline Technologies, Inc.
Example: Westside Manor, Orange County
Hurricane Irma Flooding
Leveraging Existing Watershed Models for Flood Forecasting
31 © 2018, Streamline Technologies, Inc.
Example: Westside Manor, Orange County
Simulated Flood Extents
Hurricane Irma
Pump
Station
Leveraging Existing Watershed Models for Flood Forecasting
32 © 2018, Streamline Technologies, Inc.
Example: Westside Manor, Orange County Medium Range Forecasts Issued at 8:00 a.m. EDT
Rainfall Comparison
Leveraging Existing Watershed Models for Flood Forecasting
33 © 2018, Streamline Technologies, Inc.
Example: Westside Manor, Orange County Medium Range Forecasts Issued at 8:00 a.m. EDT
Stage Comparison
Recorded High Water
80.7 ft NAVD88
Leveraging Existing Watershed Models for Flood Forecasting
34 © 2018, Streamline Technologies, Inc.
Example: Westside Manor, Orange County Short Range Forecasts Issued Sunday, September 10th
Rainfall Comparison
Leveraging Existing Watershed Models for Flood Forecasting
35 © 2018, Streamline Technologies, Inc.
Example: Westside Manor, Orange County Short Range Forecasts Issued Sunday, September 10th
Stage Comparison
Recorded High Water
80.7 ft NAVD88
Leveraging Existing Watershed Models for Flood Forecasting
36 © 2018, Streamline Technologies, Inc.
Example: Braden River Watershed Manatee & Sarasota Counties, Florida
59 square miles
Leveraging Existing Watershed Models for Flood Forecasting
37 © 2018, Streamline Technologies, Inc.
Braden River Watershed Short Range Forecast Hurricane Irma
Forecast Issued:
Sunday Sept. 10, 2017
at 0800 EDT
Leveraging Existing Watershed Models for Flood Forecasting
38 © 2018, Streamline Technologies, Inc.
Braden River Watershed Short Range Forecast Hurricane Irma
Leveraging Existing Watershed Models for Flood Forecasting
39 © 2018, Streamline Technologies, Inc.
Observed
Medium Range
Forecasts
Hurricane Irma
Braden River Watershed
Short Range
Forecast
Leveraging Existing Watershed Models for Flood Forecasting
40 © 2018, Streamline Technologies, Inc.
Observed
Medium Range
Forecasts FORECASTS ISSUED:
SEPT. 08 at 0800 hrs
SEPT. 09 at 0800 hrs
SEPT. 10 at 0800 hrs
Hurricane Irma
Braden River Watershed
Leveraging Existing Watershed Models for Flood Forecasting
41 © 2018, Streamline Technologies, Inc.
Observed
Medium Range
Forecasts
(24 hrs apart)
Hurricane Irma
Braden River Watershed
77 hrs
53 hrs 29 hrs
Leveraging Existing Watershed Models for Flood Forecasting
42 © 2018, Streamline Technologies, Inc.
Observed
Short Range
Forecasts
(2 hrs apart)
Braden River Watershed
29 hrs
Leveraging Existing Watershed Models for Flood Forecasting
43 © 2018, Streamline Technologies, Inc.
Base Run
Medium Range
Forecasts
Braden River Watershed
August 26th
Storm
IRMA
Leveraging Existing Watershed Models for Flood Forecasting
44 © 2018, Streamline Technologies, Inc.
Base Run
Medium Range
Forecasts
Braden River Watershed
IRMA
August 26th
Storm
Leveraging Existing Watershed Models for Flood Forecasting
45 © 2018, Streamline Technologies, Inc.
Another Source for Forecast Data NWS Southeast River Forecast Center
Leveraging Existing Watershed Models for Flood Forecasting
1st 6 hours 2nd 6 hours 3rd 6 hours
46 © 2018, Streamline Technologies, Inc.
What’s Next?
• Continue testing National Water Model data
for the 2018 hurricane season
• Begin testing NWS Southeast River Forcast
Center data for the 2018 hurricane season
• Automate the entire process
Leveraging Existing Watershed Models for Flood Forecasting
47 © 2018, Streamline Technologies, Inc.
Closing Thought
Leveraging Existing Watershed Models for Flood Forecasting
Try to imagine a single
forecasting model for the
entire State of Florida, built
upon the hundreds of existing
detailed models already
available.
It is definitely in the realm of
possibilities!
48 © 2018, Streamline Technologies, Inc.
Thank you!
Peter J. Singhofen, P.E.
Streamline Technologies, Inc.
psinghofen@icpr4.com
Leveraging Existing Watershed Models for Flood Forecasting
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