kernobsttag netto-markendiscount pipfruit - outlook season 2012/13 helwig schwartau, ami
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Kernobsttag Netto-MarkendiscountKernobsttag Netto-Markendiscount
Pipfruit - Outlook season 2012/13
Helwig Schwartau, AMI
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EU-27: First time, more apples in the East, less in the West
2012 = One of the lowest production of the last years, but…
Distribution of regions not comparable with 2007 and 2010
EU-15 with very small production, particular in the South
NMS expected 3,87 Mio t, only more ‘08 (4,5 Mio. t)
Relaxed autumn, changeing trading flow, less table apples than 2007 and 2010
(1.000 t)
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EU-27: Apple harvest for freshmarket
The lowest volumen for freshmarket of the last years???
More second qualities for storage?
Volume with hail damage?
Effect of price level for processing
A very high price level
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Sale prices P.O. South Tyrol, Galatable apples, class I 70-75mm
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Western Europe : Production bicolour apples
Braeburn: Relaxed season France/Italy = 147.000 t (-28%)
Gala: -13% than 2011 Hold up market share in North Africa/ Middle East?
Jonagold: All countries with lower crop. Concentrated sales in Western Europe, no stress till february
Elstar: Netherland -33% than last year. Less exports to Germany.
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EU apple exports to North Africa and Middle East (Aug. till April)
France
Italy
Spain
1.000 tons
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Poland: Apple exports (Aug.- April)
In 1.000 t ‘08/09 ‘09/10 ‘10/11 ‘11/12
Total 714 611 348 655
EU-27 Extra 502 503 310 590
EU-27 Intra 212 108 38 65
Russia 230 231 196 356
Ukraine 225 220 63 92
Kazakhstan 7 19 13 22
Belarus 32 27 34 116
Baltic 106 29 18 18
S. East Europ 61 41 8 26
EU-15 46 38 12 21
UK 3 5 2 4
Scandinavia 17 16 7 9
Germany 16 14 4 10
Good season 2011/12
Strong investment (75% subvention)
Bigger apple harvest in the future (above 3 Mio. t ?)
Planting trends (20% Idared) targeted to the east markets
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Russia: apples imports 2011/12 by month (Competition Poland/ GUS/ EU15)
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Processing apples
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Germany – consumption apple juice (GfK)
Mio. litre
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EU-27: Apple harvest for processing
AJC stocks cleared! Price on a relativ high level
In Western Europe less crop the smallest crop of the last years
German - outside market production 100.000 t lower than last year
Poland bigger crop, more hail, shap processing increasing 10% than 2011?
EUR/100kg
?
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Europe: Price development for AJCsince February 2007
2007 2012
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Processing apple price development
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Apples – Global trading
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Import markets for apples in the world, trading South Hemisphere, till July(1.000 tons) 2012 (red graphic column), 2011 and 2010
EuropeRussia
Asia
North Am.
Africa/Mid.EastLat. America
Worldwide
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EU-27: Imports overseas apples (till July) Chile: Worldwide exports 606.000 t, 75.000 t less s than year
New Zealand: More exports to Asia (+10%), UK the same, EU Continent decrease (-25%)
South Africa: The same volume, but 7.000 t more to UK, less to continent
Argentina: Worldwide the smallest volumes of the last years
Brazil: More export than 2011, particular UK
Source: AMI
1.000 t
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New Zealand: Apple export to Asia increase, till July (1.000 t)
1.000 t 2007 2009 2011 2012
Asia 38 51 69 79
EU cont. 108 109 99 73
UK 54 41 38 39
America 37 38 28 30
M. East 5 10 9 13
Total 246 254 256 246
2012 - Export by varieties
Constant worldwide export volume, but….
Strong focus to AsiaEU – only UK stable, but…Middle East more interesting
*31*20
*21
*34
*41
(* Last year)
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South Africa – Exports per marktet segment (%)
2011
Average price (Rand/ t)
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Chile: Worldwide apple export (1.000 t)
Europe/Russia
North A.
AsiaM. East
Latin A.
Global export 2012 = 606.000 t2011 = 682.000 t 2010 = 661.000 t 2009 = 573.000 t
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Destination 2008 2009 2010 2011 2011 main market
Total exports 700 808 780 789 Asia 329 (‘08 = 172)
Asia East 88 95 110 131 Taiw. 68/ Hongk. 57
Asia South East 66 91 102 121 Indonesia 60
Asia South 18 48 38 77 India 72
Middle East 45 81 64 62 VAE 28/ Saudi A. 20
South America 14 19 12 29
North./Latin Am. 341 347 340 283 Mexico 168
EU 40 32 24 11
Total imports 154 151 188 138
Chile 92 87 122 86
New Zealand 32 44 41 32
USA: apples exports/ imports (1.000 t)
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High price level for pears
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EU 27: Pear crop in the last 10 years
In tons
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Market balance for pears in EU-27
1.000 t 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12f 2012/13f
Market production 2.602 2.275 2.629 1.969
+ Import EU1) 275 309 235 330
- Export EU1) 311 345 454 300
= Consumption2) 2.566 2.239 2.410 1.999
Per capita (kg) 5,1 4,5 4,8 4,0
Note: 1) 1.7. - 30.6. - 2) Without market losses,
Source: AMI / EUROSTAT - f = forecast
Bad argent. crop with less exports to Europe.
Export 100.000 t more than last year. Increasing Russia, North Africa, Brazil.
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Pears: Netherlands Veilingeprices für Conference class I, 65-75mm
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Russia: Import pears (July – May)
Only slowly increasing imports, 2011/12 = 384.000 t2010/11 = 375.000 t2009/10 = 355.000 t2008/09 = 290.000 t
More exports from EU-15 at the expense of overseas
Argentina -20% pears than last two years (till May)
1.000 t
EU-27 Trend
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EU pear exports to Asia, North Africa S. America and Middle East (Aug. till April)
NL/BEL
Spain
Italy
1.000 tons
France ‘11/12 total 500 t
Brazil Import Aug-Dec
Italy 1.600 t
Brazil Import Aug-Dec
Italy 1.600 t
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EU-27: Imports overseas pears
2012 = 234.000 t overseas pears arrived in Europe75.000 t (-25%) less than 2011
• Chile unchanged
• South Africa changed to other markets
• Argentina less to Europe, other marktes unchanged
EU imports vs. 2011 Williams -45%, Packhams -22%, A. Fetel 8%, Forelle +1%
1.000 t
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Import markets for pears in the world, trading South Hemisphere, till July(1.000 tons) 2012 (red graphic column), 2011/ 2010/2009
EuropeRussia
Asia
North Am.
Africa/Mid.EastLat. America
Worldwide
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South Africa: Pear export till July (in tons)
Asia
M. East
Africa
Export Asia/Africa 2012 = 42.500 t 2011 = 36.400 t 2010 = 28.100 t2009 = 19.554 t
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Thanks a lot for your attention.
HELWIG SCHWARTAU, AMI, BÜRO HAMBURG
Helwig.Schwartau@AMI-informiert.de
+49 (0)40-6505595-0
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