karrasch essd 09.04.13 2 leena

Leena Karrasch

COAST – Center for Environment and Sustainability Research,

Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg, Germany

Climate Adaptation in Coastal Regions The Case of Krummhörn

Content

1. Climate Adaptation in Coastal Regions – The Case Study of Krummhörn

2. Stakeholder Involvement in Integrative Planning and Assessment

Ahlhorn et al. (2010)

Ahlhorn et al. (2010)

• 12 million people live in the flood prone area of the southern North Sea region

• Climate change threatens the area:

- sea level rise

- changes in hydrological cycles

• Changes within the society:

- shifts in demographic distributions

- technical innovations

- economic incentives

• There is a need for sustainable and adaptive land use management strategies

Climate Adaptation in Coastal Areas

„Interactions between Land Management, Climate Change and Ecosystem Services“

Project Overview

• 10 Universities in Germany

• January ´11 – December ´15

• Northern Europe Coastline

• Area: 76 km²

Case Study Region – Northwest-German Coastal Lowlands

NL

Wesermarsch (GER)

Krummhörn (GER)

Protected by dykes Total dyke line length of Lower Saxony: 700 km

Ahlhorn et al. (2010)

Main dike

River

Water body

Border

Impacts of Climate Change

http://www.lbeg.niedersachsen.de

• Climate change leads to:

- sea level rise

- increasing wave and wind conditions

- 20 % less rain in summer (2070-2100)

- up to 50 % more precipitation in winter

(2070-2100)

Problems

• Flood events

• Increased pumping costs

• Salinization of groundwater

• Scarcity of resources

• Competing interests

http://www.entwaesserungsverband-emden.de/index.php?page=projekte_wassermanagement

Climate Adaption Scenarios

Four concrete, area defined scenarios focusing on climate adaptation and changing land management with different goals

1. Trend

2. Water Management

3. Carbon Sequestration

4. Stakeholder-based

1. Trend

• „Business as usual“

• Agriculture, dairy farming,

nature conservation

2. Water Management

• Establishment of freshwater polders

• Retention of freshwater

• Use of reeds for green energy

• Restriction of flooding

3. Carbon Sequestration

• Establishment of polders

• Active peat formation

• Restoration of former vegetation

4. Stakeholder-based

• Extensive participation of stakeholders that represent important sectors in the society (agriculture, coastal protection, water management, tourism, nature conservation, policy)

• Evaluation of the land management scenarios

• Assessment of stakeholder preferences

• Development of future land use strategies

The Ecosystem Service Approach

• Ecosystem services are defined as “the benefits people obtain from ecosystems” (MA 2003)

• Ecosystem service approach:

A framework for including the

concept of ecosystem services

into decision-making

http://www.metrovancouver.org/planning/development/ecologicalhealth/Pages/default.aspx

Ecosystem Services

• Each land use scenario focuses on the provsion of ecosystem services (ESS).

Ecosystem services

Project-led scenarios Stake-

holder

based Trend

Water

manage-

ment

Carbon

seques-

tration

Food production + - - ?

Green energy production using

reeds - + - ?

Flood prevention - + 0 ?

Carbon sequestration by peat

production from reeds - + ++ ?

Prevention of brackish

groundwater intrusion - + + ?

Perception of safety ? ? ? ?

Recreation - + + ?

Conservation of biodiversity + + - ?

Trade-Offs

Biomass production Dominant reeds

Biodiversity Butomus umbellatus in extensively used pastures

vs

Synergies

• Provisioning of green energy

• Shift from dairy farming to reed farming

Reeds at the Weser estuary yielding high biomass.

Polder Huntewiesen in Winter 2009: ice-skaters as an example for ESS recreation.

Response and Effect Chain

Drivers

Hydrological

scenario

Land use

scenario

Climate

scenario

Environment

Water supply

and aeration

Biomass

removal

Species

Plant species

abundances and

traits

Ecosystem

function / property

Standing Biomass

Species richness

Water cycle

Greenhous gas

emissions

Response and Effect Chain (continued)

Expert

assessment

WTP & risk

assessment

Assessments

of values

Ecosystem

function / property

Standing Biomass

Species richness

Water cycle

Greenhous gas

emissions

Assignments

of values

Direct costs from

public databases

Experiments

Red lists

Coastal

ecosystem service

Carbon sequestration

Food production

Green energy

Conservation of

biodiversity

Flood prevention

Identity

Summary

From Theory to Practice – Stakeholder Intergration in Participatory Planning and Assessment

• Scarcity of space and impacts of climate change are becoming major drivers of land use and adaption management today.

• Changes in land use affect peoples´ life (social impact) and the provision of ecosystem services

• Dilemma: maintenance of the status quo vs. necessary change processes to meet future

challenges. • Stakeholder collaboration: A process of interactive learning and empowerment –

stakeholders are working collectively towards a common goal.

• How to develop participatory and adaptive strategies for sustainable land use management including the ecosystem service approach and social impacts?

Methodology

• Participatory planning process, based on the concepts ecosystem service approach and social impact assessment

Participatory Planning

Human Well-being

Ecosystem Service

Approach

Ecosystem Services

Social Impacts

Social Impact

Assessment

Sustainable Development

Methodology – Process Scheme

Methodology – From Science Driven towards Stakeholder Driven Decision Support -

Methodology - Setting

Constitutive social impacts: essential parts of the planning process Indicative social impacts: serve as indicators, direct influence on ecosystem services

Category Social impact

Constitutive

Personal

Impacts

Attachment to place

Obligation to ancestors and traditions

Participation in decision-making

Constitutive

Development

Impacts

Need for adaption measures

Placement of new land use strategies

Competing land uses

Compliance with property rights and values

Indicative

Economic

Impacts

Security of income

Economic prosperity and resilience of the region

Maintenance of agricultural and grassland

Security of food and drinking water supply

Indicative

Climate Change

Impacts

Combat negative influences of increasing sea level, inland water levels, droughts, dike overtopping

Provision of safety

Indicative

Landscape

Impacts

Aesthetic quality, beauty of the landscape

Presence of tourists

Cultural-historical values

Indicative

Ecological

Impacts

Beauty of nature

Organic management, sustainable use of resources

Category Service

Provisioning

Services

Food production

Forage production

Green energy production

Freshwater retention for agricultural use

Regulating

Services

Prevention of saltwater intrusion

Salt marshes

Hazard regulation by water retention

Erosion control

Cultural

Services

Community identification and connection

Recreation, tourism

Supporting

Services

Biodiversity

Quality of soil

Reduction of greenhouse gases

Methodology – Categorization of Social Impacts and Ecosystem Services

Methodology - Profiling

Methodology – Integration of Ecosystem Services and Social Impacts

Results – Integration of Ecosystem Services and Social Impacts

Attachment to place

Effects of urbanisation

Kind of land use Habitats

Adaptation to climate change

Demand

Supply

Results - Examples

Ecosystem services

Indicative social impacts

Economic: Prosperity of

the region

Climate Change: Combat negative

influences

Landscape: Beauty of landscape

Ecological: Sustainable use of

resources

Supporting: Soil quality

Cultural: Community identification

Regulating: Hazard regulation

Provisioning: Food production

Conclusion

• The scientific background of the ecosystem service approach is not easy to communicate. The stressed social impacts lead to the ecosystem services by translating the stakeholders´ language into scientific approaches.

• The operationalization of the ecosystem service approach and social impact analysis shows that social demands and provision of ecosystem services are inherently connected.

• Stakeholder collaboration promotes social learning processes, consideration of different world-views and cooperation and agreements. The work on a common goal improves decision-making processes.

Conclusion

• Climte change is one major driver of land use and adaptation management today.

• Adaptive strategies are the basis for a sustainable land management.

• Together with experts and decision-maker of the region, concrete and action oriented adaptive strategies can be developed.

Thank you for your attention

For more information, please contact

leena.karrasch@uni-oldenburg.de

http://www.coast.uni-oldenburg.de/

References

• Ahlhorn et al. (2010): Speichern statt pumpen. Abschlussbericht im Rahmen des F+E-Vorhabens "Biosphärenreservate als Modellregionen für Klimaschutz und Klimaanpassung". Herausgegeben von Bundesamt für Naturschutz (BfN) und Nationalpark- und Biosphärenreservatsverwaltung "Niedersächsisches Wattenmeer".

• MA – Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (Ed.), 2003. Ecosystems and Human Well-Being. A Framework for Assessment. Island Press, Washington, 245 pp.

• Vanclay, F., 2002. Conceptualising social impacts. Environ. Impact Assess. Rev. 22, 183-211.

• Figures:

• http://www.entwaesserungsverband-emden.de/index.php?page=projekte_wassermanagement

• http://www.lbeg.niedersachsen.de

• http://www.metrovancouver.org/planning/development/ecologicalhealth/Pages/default.aspx

Discussion

• Stakeholder involvement – right from the beginning – is an important step in informal decision-making processes.

> How can stakeholders be integrated in decision-making processes?

> There are different stakeholdergroups. How does a collaboration succeed?

• Climate change is one driver for adaption measures.

> What are other drivers?

> How can different adaption measures be interlinked in one region?