jostein dahl karlsen chair, working party for fossil fuels, wpff international energy agency energy...
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Jostein Dahl KarlsenChair, Working Party for Fossil Fuels, WPFF International Energy Agency
Energy Perspectives
Annual Petroleum Research School of Norway PhD Seminar24 November,
Norwegian Petroleum Museum, Stavanger
Points
• Global Trends
• Regional Developments
• Oil and Gas & Technology
3
Nord Amerika
S. & Sentr. Amerika
Asia
Midt Østen
Afrika
Europa og Eurasia
-1000 -500 0 500 1000
-295.4
75.8
-992.1
961.0
282.5
-43.5
-7.3
11.0
-121.3
123.0
84.1
-43.1
Gass Væske
Mill. tonn o.e
Liquids
Asia
South and Central America
North America
Oil and Gas a strategic commodity
Gas
Europe and Eurasia
Africa
Middle East
Net Regional Import and Export Capacities
Source: BP
Uncertainty of Opec capacityexpansion
Importance of Non-OECD energy growth
Modernization – basis for global energy growth in the long term
Energy consumption vs per capita income, by region
Global Energy Developments1980 - 2035
Primary energy demand – a continued surge by all fuels
Tracking clean energy progress
Policy Scenarios match different energy futures
99
The world's remaining energy resources will not constrain the projected energy demand growth to 2035 & beyond, but large-scale of investment is required
Fossil energy resources by type
Total remaining recoverable resources
Proven reserves
Cumulative production to date
Coal Natural gas Oil
3 050 years
233 years178 years
142 years
61 years 54 years
Gas to become first fuel- with role of LNG on the rise
Source: WEO 2014
Long term gas supply cost curve
Volumes faced in through prices that reflects cost
Source: Resources to Reserves, Oil and Gas Technologies for the 21st Century, IEA 2013
Unconventonional oil and gas - changes the energy landscape
Economic implication of US unconventional revolution
Source: WEO 2014
Cost of gas pipeline transport
Technology can reduce cost - market push is still essential
Source: Resources to Reserves, Oil and Gas Technologies of the 21st Century, IEA 2013
Lock-in of fossil capacity, infrastructure and CO2 emissions
CO2 emissions in ChinaOngoing/recent
capacity expansion in coal fired power in
China reresents +10 GT of CO2 emissions
locked- in
Natural Gas is needed to combat global climate change
Europe:• CO2 emissions up!
Major step towards 2 DS realised if the current
investments in Chinese coal power replaced with gas
by 200 mill. tons CO2 in 2011
IEA WPFF – China MOST collaboration
China Natural GasConsumption vs Production
2121
Gas import mix - China
Recent Russianpipeline deal
22
What’s in the store for future fuels?
Technology Routes – China Gas
Coal to Gas
Global Gas Flows by
Inter-regional trade towards 2018
2727
Gas to Europe
523 800km2
2 140 000 km2
Norwegian Continental Shelf - an important source of supply in the long term
Resources,NCS
Political solution in theHigh North
Russia-Norway disputed zone : agreement after 40 years of negotiations
Sector line
Medianline
Settlementprinciple
Barents Sea
Click icon to add pictureArctic E & P – a remote, but unique opportunity
1: Barents Sea2: Southern Kara Sea and West Siberia3: Northern Kara Sea4: Laptev Sea5: East Siberian Sea6: Chuchi Sea7: Alaska North Slope8: East Greenland
The worlds remainingpetroleum potential
N. AfrikaCaspian SeaMiddle East
Rest ofThe world
Arctic
8
3
2
1 4
5
67
Source: USGS
The Barents Sea Scenario - Long term perspective
(Russia) Norway
Markets
Oil Gas
Addressing techological challenges
Subsea production CompressionCourtesy of FMC Courtesy of Aker Solutions
Upstream Oil
Unconventional resources – a new regional energy future?
Shale and tight oil wells in 2014
Unconventional resources – what is in the store for productionGlobally?
Presented by Schlumberger at IEA Gas and Oil Technology InitiativeUnconventional Technology Forum, Colorado School of Mines, 29 October 2014
37
Time to step up information
exchange?
3838
IEA Gas and Oil Technology Initiative
• Established in 2013 to provide information exchange on issues of strategic importance
• Global Initiative - interest from major regions; - North America/Americas, Europe, Asia/Asia Pacific
• International roll-out currently ongoing
Highlights: www.gotia.org
Thank you for your attention
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