japanese conceptions
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Japanese Conceptions of Security in the 21st
Century
Tom LeAssociate Professor of PoliticsPomona College
October 23, 2021
Roadmap
• Useful Concepts and Definitions• History and Context• Research Question
The Basics
• Demographics• Technology
Hardware
• Politics• Rules and Rule
Software
Useful Concepts and Definitions
Analyzes with these Concepts + Theories
Alliances; IGOs; Multinational Corporations; Regimes
International System
State
Individual
Anarchy; Power Balancing;Interdependence;Norms and Rules
Regime-type;Democratic Peace Theory;Kantian Triangle
Personality;Perceptions;Human Nature
Leaders
Government;Economy;National Interest;Interest Groups
Kenneth Waltz, 1959. Man, the State, and War
THREE IMAGES OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
“the authoritative allocation of values for a society”- David Easton
“who gets what, when, and how”- Harold Lasswell
WHAT IS POLITICS?
“[rules] tell us how to play the game”- Nicolos Onuf
• History matters
• Commitment to a path due to structural properties or beliefs and values
• Early decisions have a larger impact than later decisions
• The cost of change increases over time
Key Components
PATH DEPENDENCE
Some History and Context
• Economic development• Low military footprint
Yoshida Doctrine
• ODA• Promotion of institutions
Fukuda Doctrine
• Proactive contribution to peace• Strengthening US-Japan alliance
Abe Doctrine
Three Non-Nuclear Principles
• Will not sell arms to any country that can engage in conflict
Non-Exports Principles
• Renounces the right to war for settling international disputes
Article 9
• Blames military for hijacking the nation in WWII
• Guilt stemming from war conduct• Significant presence of pacifist left in
education, political, and general society
"Peace Culture"
JAPAN: PACIFISM OR PASSING THE BUCK?
Occupied by U.S.S.R.
Occupied by U.S.A
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
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1954
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2012
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2015
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2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Civil War
Civil War
North Korea• Historical security issues• Rapid development of nuclear program• Increased regularity of missile tests• Missiles have shown increased range,
lethality, and dependability
Dozens of Japanese nationals have been abducted by North Korea
China• Power transition: China has overtaken
Japan economically and militarily• Presence: China has increased its footprint
regionally and internationally• Confidence: China has become more
willing to press its territorial claims• Uncertainty: The U.S. has shown signs of
isolationism0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
China Japan Russia South Korea Taiwan
Share of Defense Spending in East Asia
July 27, 2012March 5, 2015September 3, 2015July 24, 2016
EAST ASIA REGIONAL POLITICS
US-Japan Alliance
• Abandonment vs. Entrapment?• How to be a better ally?• How to be an equal ally?• Is the US a dependable ally?
Diverse Security Threats
• Terrorism• Cyber security• Environmental insecurity• Human security• Rocky relations with ROK
“As far as Japan and other countries, we are being ripped off by everybody in the ̶ we're defending other countries. We are spending a fortune doing it. They have the bargain of the century. All I said is, we have to renegotiate these agreements, because our country cannot afford to defend Saudi Arabia, Japan, Germany, South Korea and many other places.”
“Now, wouldn't you rather in a certain sense have Japan have nuclear weapons when North Korea has nuclear weapons? And they do have them. They absolutely have them. They can't ̶ they have no carrier system yet but they will very soon.Wouldn't you rather have Japan, perhaps, they're over there, they're very close, they're very fearful of North Korea, and we're supposed to protect.”
GLOBAL POLITICS
The Tragedy of Great Power Politics
“Japanʼs path to militarization” ‒ The Atlantic, July 11, 2016
“Why the US is no threat to China, but a remilitarized Japan, led by Shinzo Abe, may well be” ‒ South China Morning Post, November 5, 2017
“To deter North Korea, Japan and South Korea should go nuclear” ‒ The Washington Post, October 10, 2017
“A pacifist Japan starts to embrace the military” ‒ The New York Times, August 29, 2017
”Japanese politicians want the ability to bomb North Korea first before being ʻdestroyedʼ” ‒ Newsweek, March 27, 2017
“Japan mulls over more aggressive military stance as North Korean threat looms” - CNN, March 30, 2017
“Is Japanʼs militarization normal?” - The Diplomat, March 18, 2015
• Aging/declining population
• Marriage
• Work-life balance
State
• Rising China
• Nuclear North Korea
• Terrorism
• Piracy
• Natural disasters
• Climate change
• Natural resources
EnvironmentalSocial
• Anemic Growth
• Global competition
• Supply chains and resource dependence
• BRI
Economic
JAPANESE SECURITY CONCERNS
Argument• Interaction of material and ideational forces create constraints and
restraints on the JSDF
• Antimilitarism is reified through time, experiences, and practices. We can call this an antimilitarism ecosystem
Premises• Security policy is what a state can do, as much as it is what it should
do • Politics is a normative exercise• Antimilitarism is a type of militarism
What determines the content and direction of Japanese security policy?
• How is the use of force legitimized in domestic politics and international relations?
• How do Japanʼs anti-militarism culture and institutions evolve in response to changes to the domestic, regional, and international environments?
QUESTIONS TO CONSIDER
Role of the Military
• Security
• Policing
• State building
• Diplomacy
Port visits and exchanges Antipiracy and patrolsEngineering and construction Defense of Japan
Pacifism (ßantimilitarism) (remilitarizationà) Militarism
Conventional Militarism Concept - Militarizing - Militaristic- Anti-militarism - Pacifism- Defensive - Offensive- Normalizing - Normal- Abnormal- The concept of “militarism” has been oversimplified- Normative language shades analysis of security policy, especially of non-U.S. states- Analysis mixes intentions, projections, and capabilities- Material and ideational forces interact and produce unique militarisms
MULTIPLE MILITARISMS
• Aging/declining population
• Article 18 (no conscription)
• Weak recruitment
Technical-Infrastructural
• Underdeveloped military-industrial complex
• Lack of combat experience
• Outdated infrastructure
• Defense-oriented technologies
• US-Japan alliance
• Japanese “neutrality” outside of East Asia
• Reassurance policy
• International stigma
PoliticalSocial-Structural
• “Peace Constitution”
• Non-nuclear principles
• Peace activism
• 1% of GDP defense spending limit
• Arms exports ban
Normative
ANTIMILITARISM ECOSYSTEM
Demographics
DEMOGRAPHIC CRISES
POPULATION PROJECTIONS
JAPAN ANNUAL GDP GROWTH
Source: Figure created with data from World Values Survey (1981, 1990, 1995, 1999, 2005, 2010, and 2017)
93%89% 90%
80%74%
89%
21%
10%
17% 16% 15% 15% 13%
74%
85%82%
74% 72%
63%67%
73%
86%81%
77%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1981-1984 1990-1994 1995-1998 1999-2004 2005-2009 2010-2014 2017-2020
China Japan South Korea Taiwan
WORLD VALUES SURVEY: WILLINGNESS TO FIGHT FOR YOUR COUNTRY
Source: Ministry of Defense, Bōei Hakusho (“defense white paper”), 1970-2018.
80%
82%
84%
86%
88%
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
30000019
7519
7619
7719
7819
7919
8019
8119
8219
8319
8419
8519
8619
8719
8819
8919
9019
9119
9219
9319
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
1720
1820
19
PER
CEN
T O
F A
UTH
OR
IZED
PER
SON
NEL
REC
RU
ITED
UN
IT: T
RO
OPS
Authorized Actual Percent
JSDF FORCE SIZE (AUTHORIZED AND ACTUAL) (1976-2019)
China Japan North Korea Russia South Korea TaiwanParamilitary 660,000 12,650 189,000 659,000 4,500 17,000Reserve 510,000 56,000 6,300,000 2,000,000 7,500,000 1,657,000Active 2,183,000 247,150 1,190,000 831,000 630,000 215,000
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000Pe
rson
nel
Source: IISS 2017
MILITARY FORCE SIZE IN EAST ASIA
Aging and Declining Population
Decreased savings and productivity
Decreased investment and less effective/flexible
fiscal policies
Decreased consumerspending; weakened
economy
Delayed marriage; later births; fewer births
Fewer recruits
Less selective recruiting
Early retirements
Limited defense budget
IMPACT OF DEMOGRAPHICS ON FORCE STRENGTH
Peace Culture: Rule and Rules
PreambleWe desire to occupy an honored place in an international society striving for the preservation of peace, and the banishment of tyranny and slavery, oppression and intolerance for all time from the earth. We recognize that all peoples of the world have the right to live in peace, free from fear and want.
Aspiring sincerely to an international peace based on justice and order, the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes.
In order to accomplish the aim of the preceding paragraph, land, sea,and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained.The right of belligerency of the state will not be recognized.
Article 9
• Comprehensive view of security • Desire to contribute to the
international community
• Limited use of the Japan Self-Defense Forces
• Significant legal roadblocks to expansion of responsibilities
Implications
• Multi-pronged approach to security (ODA, HA/DR, diplomacy)
• Non-military Preemptive security
Article 25All people shall have the right to maintain the minimum standards of wholesome and cultured living.
In all spheres of life, the State shall use its endeavors for the promotion and extension of social welfare and security, and of public health.
CONSTITUTION OF JAPAN
Nuclear Weapons
• Hiroshima and Nagasaki (200k+ deaths)
• Bikini Atoll and Lucky Dragon no. 5
• Cold War
• Non-nuclear principles
• Nuclear “allergy”
• Militarism is blamed for Japanʼs suffering
• Black rain
• Sadako and the paper cranes
• Environmental catastrophe
Antimilitarism Humanitarian Consequences of Nuclear Weapons
Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Disaster
ANTIMILITARISM AND THE ENVIRONMENT
• Civilian control of the military• Justifications for the use of force• Role of the Japan Self-Defense Forces• Is an amendment of the “Peace Constitution”
needed in todayʼs world?
“Aspiring sincerely to an international peace based on justice and order, the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes. In order to accomplish the aim of the preceding paragraph, land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained. The right of belligerency of the state will not be recognized.”
ARTICLE 9 AND MILITARISM
Source: City of Hiroshima 2020
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
UN
IT: V
ISIT
OR
S
Total (no breakdown) Japanese Adults + Students Japanese Adults Students Foreigners
HIROSHIMA PEACE MEMORIAL MUSEUM ANNUAL VISITORS (1955-2019)
Source: City of Hiroshima 2020
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
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2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
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2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
UN
IT: V
ISIT
OR
S
Elementary School Middle School High School Percentage of Total Visitors
ANNUAL HIROSHIMA PEACE MUSEUM STUDENT VISITORS (1983-2019)
Source: City of Hiroshima 2020
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
UN
IT: S
CH
OO
L TR
IPS
Elementary School Middle School High School
ANNUAL SCHOOL TRIPS (1983-2019)
Thank you.Questions?
New Actors
Old Habits
global; tech savvy; new skillsets; independent
hierarchical; underpaid; small and specialized
New Motivations
Established Methods
environmental; economic
cross-networked; cultural roadblocks
New Context
Embedded Power
interdependent; climate change
Lack of government dynamism; history “settled”; peace discourse
UPDATING PEACE CULTURE
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Uni
t: m
illio
ns (c
onst
ant [
2016
] USD
)
China Japan Russia South Korea Taiwan
Source: SIPRI
DEFENSE EXPENDITURES IN EAST ASIA (1989-2017)
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Shar
e of
Gov
ernm
ent S
pend
ing
China Japan Russia South Korea Taiwan
DEFENSE EXPENDITURES AS SHARE OF GOVERNMENT SPENDING (1989-2017)
Source: SIPRI
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Perc
enta
ge o
f GDP
China Japan Russian South Korea Taiwan
EAST ASIA DEFENSE EXPENDITURES BY SHARE OF GDP (1989-2017)
Source: SIPRI
-4 5%
-3 5%
-2 5%
-1 5%
-5 %
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
1992
-199
3
1993
-199
4
1994
-199
5
1995
-199
6
1996
-199
7
1997
-199
8
1998
-199
9
1999
-200
0
2000
-200
1
2001
-200
2
2002
-200
3
2003
-200
4
2004
-200
5
2005
-200
6
2006
-200
7
2007
-200
8
2008
-200
9
2009
-201
0
2010
-201
1
2011
-201
2
2012
-201
3
2013
-201
4
2014
-201
5
2015
-201
6
2016
-201
7
China
Japan
Russia
South Korea
Taiwan
Source: SIPRI
YEAR-TO-YEAR DEFENSE EXPENDITURES GROWTH/DECLINE (1992-2017)
Source: United Nations Troop and Police Contributors Archive (1990-2014). http://www.un.org/en/peacekeeping/resources/statistics/contributors_archive.shtml
0
5
10
15
20
25
Sep-92
Sep-93
Sep-94
Sep-95
Sep-96
Sep-97
Sep-98
Sep-99
Sep-00
Sep-01
Sep-02
Sep-03
Sep-04
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-11
Sep-12
Sep-13
Sep-14
Sep-15
Sep-16
Sep-17
Sep-18
Uni
t: m
issio
ns
Total Missions Missions (Japan Involvment)
UN AND JAPAN PKO MISSIONS (SEPTEMBER 1992 ‒ JANUARY 2019)
Source: United Nations Troop and Police Contributors Archive (1990-2014). http://www.un.org/en/peacekeeping/resources/statistics/contributors_archive.shtml
May 1993: 729
Jan. 1995 - Jan. 1996: 0
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Sep-92
Sep-93
Sep-94
Sep-95
Sep-96
Sep-97
Sep-98
Sep-99
Sep-00
Sep-01
Sep-02
Sep-03
Sep-04
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-11
Sep-12
Sep-13
Sep-14
Sep-15
Sep-16
Sep-17
Sep-18
Uni
t: tr
oops
UN AND JAPAN PKO MISSIONS (SEPTEMBER 1992 ‒ JANUARY 2019)
Dec. 2002 - Feb. 2003 [Rank 16]
Dec. 2017 [Rank 119]
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan-92Jan-93Jan-94Jan-95Jan-96Jan-97Jan-98Jan-99Jan-00Jan-01Jan-02Jan-03Jan-04Jan-05Jan-06Jan-07Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Jan-13Jan-14Jan-15Jan-16Jan-17Jan-18Jan-19
Uni
t: co
untr
ies
Japan Rank Total Countries that Countributed
Source: United Nations Troop and Police Contributors Archive (1990-2014). http://www.un.org/en/peacekeeping/resources/statistics/contributors_archive.shtml
JSDF PERSONNEL CONTRIBUTIONS TO UN MISSIONS (09/92 -01/19)
Prime Minister Whatʼs the deal? Status1) Tomiichi Murayama (JSP) 1994-1996. Upended decades of LDP rule. Socialist PM. 50th Anniversary
Apology StatementRetired. Traveled to DPRK to improve relations. Led AWF.
2) Ryutara Hashimoto (LDP) 1996-1998. Came up with the Futenma base agreement (STILL ONGOING).
Scandal forced him to resign. Dead.
3) Keizo Obuchi (LDP) 1998-2000. High point in Japan-ROK relations due to Obuchi-Kim statement and lack of spoilers. “Future-oriented relationship based on reconciliation.”
Suffered stroke and died while in office.
4) Yoshiro Mori (LDP) 2000-2001. “Heart of a flea, brain of a shark.” Either racist, or dumb. Resigned. Now head of 2020 Olympics.5) Junichiro Koizumi (LDP) 2001-2006. A “maverick” who was very popular. Kingmaker who remade
LDP. Empowered PMship significantly. Known for Yasukuni Shine visits, assertive foreign policy, economic reform (privatization of economy) and support for GWB.
Retired. Weak kingmaker. Anti-nuclear.
6) Shinzo Abe (LDP) 2006-2007. Came into power due to North Korea negotiations. Resigned. Comes back in 2012.7) Yasuo Fukuda (LDP) 2007-2008. Son of former PM. Got nothing done. Resigned. Some diplomacy work.8) Taro Aso (LDP) 2008-2009. Only PM to start term with below 50% approval rating. Gaff
prone. Lost LDP power.Resigned. Current Minister of Finance. Deputy Prime Minister.
9) Yukio Hatoyama (DPJ) 2009-2010. Political blue blood. 4th gen. politician. Great grandfather founded LDP. Asia-focused foreign policy. Disliked by US and Japanese bureaucracy.
Resigned due to scandal. Visits Asia often to given apologies. Stage actor.
10) Naoto Kan (DPJ) 2010-2011. Non-elite. Worked his way up government ranks. Increased sales tax; couldnʼt jumpstart economy. PM during 3/11. All downhill. From there.
Resigned. Sitting Diet member. Member of CDP.
11) Yoshihiko Noda (LDP) 2011-2012. Focused on US-Japan alliance (Obamaʼs Pivot to Asia). Pushed for TPP. Nationalized Senkaku Islands. Party lost election to LDP.
Lost. Sitting Diet member. DP.
12) Shinzo Abe (LDP) 2012-2020. Indo-Pacific Strategy. Abenomics. Wants to revise constitution. Very pro-US. Friends with Trump. Improved relations with China. Poor relations with ROK, despite 2015 deal. Numerous scandals. Got the Olympics. Strong legacy with the “west;” unpopular in Asia.
Longest-serving PM. Just resigned
13) Yoshihide Suga (LDP) 2020-present. Abeʼs Cabinet Secretary. Non-elite. Wants to continue Abe policies. Will have to deal with COVID, gender equality, the Olympics, East Asia issues, US presidency, demographics, immigration
Current PM.
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