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Integrating climate change considerations into sustainable
development and poverty alleviation
Inger Andersen, DirectorSustainable Development DepartmentMiddle East and North Africa Region
The World Bank
Climate changes over the last 100 years..
Less rainfall in the Sahel
More rainfall in East Africa
Africa has warmed on average 0.5 degree C over last century
Six warmest years on record have all occurred since 1987
4
…and those projected for the futurePercent change in run-off: multi-model average for the winter and summer precipitation (A1B SRES scenario)
Punch line: by 2050, reductions of by 20 to 30% in northern, western and southern Africa; most of MENA by 2050; increases of 30-40% in eastern Africa
Source: Milly et al (2005), published in Nature
Ecosystems and Agriculture Productivity Could Be Severely Impacted
•Reduction in soil fertility
•Decreased livestock productivity
•Increased incidence of pest attacks
•Shifts and changes in lengths of growing seasons
Agriculture contributes about 20-70% of GDP and 70-80% employmentEach 1ºC rise in average temperature will reduce dryland farm profits in Africa by nearly 10%.
6
Natural Disasters are on the rise…
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Increase in the annual frequency of large-scaledisaster events in Africa since 1985
Distribution of Disasters in SSA Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database
7
… and are expected to increase further
Millions of people experiencing coastal flooding in North Africa(constant protection in 2080)
32.2
25.6
14.2
12.0
0.7
7.66.25.7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0-1°C 1-2°C 2-3°C 3-4°CTemperature increase (°C)
Mill
ion
s o
n p
eo
ple
High population growth scenario Low population growth scenario
Punch line: between 6 and 25 million people will be exposed to coastal flooding in North Africa under a temperature increase of between 1 -3 degrees
Source: Stern report background paper
9
Energy access is crucial for growth in Africa
• Only 24% access to electricity
• 28/48 SSA African countries affected by energy crisis
Source: World Bank
10
Region’s GHG contributions: far less than its population shareRegion's Shares in Emissions Population and
Economy
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Emissions Population GDP (current US$)
Per
cen
t
7.50%
17.20%
3%
12
Integrating adaptation into investment lending
World Bank Committments, SDN Network, AFR and MENA Regions, FY02-FY07 (US$ Million)
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000
Transport
Energy and Mining
Agriculture and RuralDevelopment
Water
Urban Development
Environment
Social Development
Information/Communications
WB lending in climate-sensitive sectors has averaged $3 billion per year; preliminary estimates for the MENA region suggest that 20-30% of that will help countries increase climate change resilience
13
Energy Sector: promoting the access and low carbon agenda
Over the last 5 FYs, the World Bank has financed projects worth $2.8 billion in the region (71% of the total) to expand access to modern energy and promote low carbon sector development
MENA and SSA Energy Lending, FY03-07 (US$ Million)
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600
Transmission anddistribution
Other energy
Thermal generation
Oil, gas and coal
Low Carbon, plusblended low-carbon &
access
Access
Source: World Bank (2007), Clean energy for development Investment framework: Making a difference on climate change - Progress report
14
Land Use/Forestry
Hydro
Landfills/ Compost
Energy efficiency
Other renewable
ERPA Signed
36 World Bank Projects in Portfolio/ Pipeline
2
6
14
9
5
Total36
2
2
4 6
41
1
1
2
2
1
1
1
2
1
11
1
Promoting carbon markets in the region
Region Carbon Finance Project Status – July 2007
15
Knowledge generation – Some Regional Level Initiatives
• Water resources (2-year program)– River basin focus (Lake Victoria, Eastern Nile, Senegal, Niger,
Congo, and Zambezi) – Knowledge base, climate risk management guidance, awareness
building)
• Sustainable land management (Through TerrAfrica)– Country climate baseline information at relevant scales– Guidance for climate proofing and risk management in SLM
Investments– Development and coordination of inter-agency round table on
climate proofing SLM • Energy efficiency
– Study in North Africa and Middle East to assess benefits of improved energy efficiency and viable policy options
16
Country level analytical work: some examples
Morocco: water, agriculture, urban
development
Yemen, Djibouti: water, agriculture, urban
Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia:Managing environmental risk
Madagascar:Adaptation and Risk management
Burkina Faso: Community Based Rural Development
17
Morocco: downscaling climate models will help develop better estimates of
impacts on agricultureProjection of winter precipitation change
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
TANGIERS BENI MELLAL MARRAKECH
% c
ha
ng
e in
pre
cip
tita
tio
n
2020 2050 2080
Note: projections obtained through statistical downscaling of HadCM3, B2 SRES scenario
18
Project Example:Project Example:Climate and Disaster Risk Management Madagascar
• Hydro-meteorological risk assessment for agriculture
• Cyclone impact modeling • Rice agro-climatic modeling• Updating of infrastructure
norms and standards• Vulnerability analysis for
drought-prone South • Analysis of historical and
projected climate change• Technical assistance and
capacity building for local entities
19
Country example: Morocco, water sectorWB is working with the government on policy, analysis
and investments to reduce climate change impacts
World Bank lending in support of the Water Sector in Morocco (US$ Million)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Portfolio (FY03-FY07) Pipeline (FY08- FY10)
Plan water storage, transfer investments for expected future rainfall and demand patterns. Renewed emphasis on water allocation within safe consumption limits
Affordable water services for growing municipal demand. Highest impact investments in wastewater collection and treatment
Bring ag water use to sustainable levels. Use new technologies to increase $/drop and compensate farmers for reduced consumption. Emphasis on public communication
Ensure some in-stream flows, planned aquifer drawdown or management, and manage wastewater discharge
20
Improving the policy and incentive framework
• Public sector policies and incentives necessary to:– Reduce regulatory uncertainty and mitigate regulatory
risks (e.g., in carbon finance) – Expand equity and debt capital for projects with high
investment costs and long lead times– Advance R&D
• Public Finance Management to improve both allocation and efficiency
• Policy framework (e.g. water, urban, agriculture) can help enhance resilience by providing incentives to diversify away from vulnerable sectors, locations
21
Concluding messages
1. We need to act– Climate action is critical for development – we can no longer fight poverty
without addressing climate change in core development activities– Adaptation in Africa could cost 5-10% of GDP, but is still likely to be less than
the cost of inaction
2. We need to improve knowledge– On impacts, to prioritize action– On adaptation options, to optimize funds
3. We need to scale up efforts– Adaptation needs exceed current resource flows to Africa– Development partners need to help upscale concessional/grant funding– Private sector can play important role– Policies can help reduce vulnerability
4. World Bank is ready to help on all fronts
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