integrated assessment and modelling: introduction to training exercises

Integrated Assessment and Modelling: Introduction to training exercises

RICHARD WARRICK

International Global Change Institute (IGCI)University of Waikato

New Zealand

·I·G·C·I·

This presentation will:

• Provide an overview of integrated assessment and modelling

• Describe the SimCLIM system for national and sub-national assessments

• Introduce the hands-on training session

Part 1:

Integrated Assessment and Models

What is meant by “assessment”?Integrated Assessment Models

- Part I: Integrated Assessment Models -

- Climate impacts and adaptation - Assessment Process Assessment Process

Products, e.g. National Communications

Project development time

Technical analyses and studiesTechnical analyses and studies

PA

ST

FU

TU

RE

AssessmentsAssessmentsWhat do we know?

What don’t we know?

What needs to be done?Priority gaps and needs?

What is meant by “integrated” assessment?

Integrated Assessment Models

- Part I: Integrated Assessment Models -

Global

- what is meant by integrated assessment? -

Regional

Local

sectoral

agriculture

wetter drier

Vertically integrated

Global Warming

Global

- what is meant by integrated assessment? -

Regional

Local

sectoral

agriculture

wetter drier

Vertically integrated

Global Warming

Global Warming

Global

- what is meant by integrated assessment? -

Regional

Local

sectoral

agriculture watercoastal health

Horizontally integrated

Drought RiskCoastal Risk Flood Risk Epidemic Risk

Global Warming

Global

- what is meant by integrated assessment? -

Regional

Local

sectoral

agriculture watercoastal health

Fully integrated

Drought RiskCoastal Risk Flood Risk Epidemic Risk

wetter drier

What is meant by integrated assessment “model”?

Integrated Assessment Models

- Part I: Integrated Assessment Models -

Atmospheric Chemistry

Ocean Carbon Cycle

Atmospheric Composition

Climate

Ocean•Temperature

•Sea level

Climate & Sea Level

Agriculture, Livestock &

Forestry

Energy SystemOther Human

Systems

Coastal System

Human Systems

Crops & Forests

Terrestrial Carbon Cycle

Unmanaged Ecosystems

Hydrology

Ecosystems

Key components of full-scale IAMs

(Weyant et al., IPCC, 1996)

EXAMPLE: Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)(NIES, Japan)

Study Area of AIM(NIES, Japan)

End-to-end characterisation of IAMs

(Weyant et al., IPCC 1996)

Atmospheric Chemistry

Ocean carbon Cycle

Atmospheric Composition

Hydrology

Health & other

Coastal System

Crops & Forestry

Impacts

Agriculture

Other Emissions

Energy System

Emissions

Climate

Ocean•Temperature

•Sea level

Climate & Sea Level

EXAMPLE:MAGICC/SCENGEN

MAGICC

Greenhouse gas emissions

Global mean temperature change

SCENGEN GCM patterns Climatologies

Regional Scenarios of Climate Change

Part 2:

The SimCLIM models for national and sub-national assessments

The SimCLIM ModelsThe SimCLIM Models

? MAGICC outputs

? Other outputs

? User-defined model parameters

Global-Mean Temperature and Sea-

Level Projections

National Climate Change Scenario Generator

Sectoral Impact Models

Effects

? Climatologies ? GCM patterns ? Synthetic

changes

Coast Agriculture

Water Health

(the “first generation” structure)

SimCLIM Models

VANDACLIM (island version)

BDCLIM (Bangladesh)

VANDACLIM (fictitious country)

PACCLIM (Pacific Island region)

OZCLIM (Australia)

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

CLIMPACTSCLIMPACTS ( (New Zealand)New Zealand)

CHAMP (New Zealand)

FijiClim (Viti Levu)

CANCLIM (Canada)

HOTSPOTS (NZ)

TOPOCLIM (NZ)

For Example: FIJICLIM

Mean Annual Precipitation 2070

Climate:

Example: FijiCLIM, Dalo Suitability

El Nino Drought Climate Change 2050 with El Nino Drought

Current Average Climate

GREEN = highly suitable soils and climate

BROWN = least suitable

Impacts:

SimCLIMs can be used to:SimCLIMs can be used to:

• Describe baseline climatesDescribe baseline climates• Examine current climate variability and extremesExamine current climate variability and extremes• Assess risks – present and futureAssess risks – present and future• Investigate adaptation – present and futureInvestigate adaptation – present and future• Create climate change scenariosCreate climate change scenarios• Conduct sensitivity analysesConduct sensitivity analyses• Project sectoral impacts of climate and sea level changeProject sectoral impacts of climate and sea level change• Examine risks and uncertaintiesExamine risks and uncertainties• Facilitate integrated impact analysesFacilitate integrated impact analyses

A customised, prototype SimCLIM model can be developed for AIACC projects

Data Required:

• Spatially interpolated monthly climatologies

• Time-series climate data for stations (monthly or daily)

• Downscaled, standardised patterns of monthly temperature and precipitation changes from GCMs.

• Digital elevation model (optional)

Part 3:

The “hands-on” training exercise

Objective

To gain practical experience in:

• selected elements of integrated assessment

• using an Integrated Assessment Model

- Hands-on Training Exercise -

The “Republic of Vanda Islands”The “Republic of Vanda Islands”(an imaginary country)(an imaginary country)

- Hands-on Training Exercise -

Using:

The Island VersionDeveloped by the International Global Change Institute, University of Waikato, New Zealand

- Hands-on Training Exercise -

Problem Focus: Risk Reduction

• Assess current climatic risks• Assess adequacy of current adaptation to climatic

variability and extremes• Develop scenarios of future climate changes• Assess possible future changes in risk• Assess adaptation options for reducing future

risks• Estimate incremental cost ratios

- Hands-on Training Exercise -

Choice of 4 Training Groups• Coastal Flood Risk (storm surges)

• Agricultural Drought Risk

• Risks of Groundwater shortage

• Drought risk to water supply

Aosis

Aosis

- Hands-on Training Exercise -

Sessions

• All four training groups in each session

• No more than four persons per group

• Each session repeated four times

- Hands-on Training Exercise -

The End…

Thank you for your attention