india supply demand
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India: Energy Demand and Supply andClimate Opportunities
Jayant A. Sathaye
Senior Staff ScientistLawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Berkeley, CA
22 March 2006
Workshop on Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development andClimate Opportunities in China and India, Washington DC
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Contents
Energy situation in India: An Overview
Electric Power Sector Industrial Sector
Buildings and Appliances
Energy efficiency: Key Institutions
Conclusions
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Energy situation in India:
An Overview
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Primary Energy Supply*
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
1971
1975
1979
1983
1987
1991
1995
1999
2003
PJ
US
China
India
Primary Energy Supply* / GDP
(Indexed to 1971)
Source:
Energy data IEA
Economic data World Bank
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
US
China
India
* Excl. traditional biomass in India
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Coal continues to dominate energy mix,
although natural gas share has increasedIndia: Primary Supply by Energy Source
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
P
J
Solar/Wind/Other
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Source: Energy data IEA
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Primary Energy Consumption, India
(Excl. traditional biomass)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,00012,000
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
PJ
Agriculture
Industry
Transport
Commercial
Residential
Sectoral Shares
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Agriculture
Industry
Transport
Commercial
Residential
Increased Share of
Agriculture and
Residential and
Commercial Energy
Use:
Electricity subsidized
to both sectors
25% of state fiscal
deficit in many states
Subsidy is about $2billion annually
Source:
Energy data IEA
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Decomposing India CO2 Emissions:Economic and population growth more than offset recent
decline in CO2 emissions intensity
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
GDP/pop
Co2
Pop
CO2 / PE (t CO2 per TJ)PE/GDP
CO2 / GDP (kg CO2 per 2000 US$)
1050 Mt CO2
Source: Energy data IEA; Economic data World Bank
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Electric Power Sector
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Electricity Generation by Source
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
TWh
Solar/Wind/Other
BiomassHydro
Nuclear
Natural Gas
Oil
Coal
Shares
0%10%
20%30%
40%50%
60%70%
80%
90%100%
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
Solar/Wind/Other
Biomass
Hydro
Nuclear
Natural Gas
Oil
CoalSource: IEA Energy Data, and
Economic Survey, GOI, 2006
India GenerationCapacity (MW)
%
Total 123,668 100
Coal,Natural gas
Oil
68,43412,430
1,201
55.510.0
0.9Hydro 32,135 26.0
Nuclear 3,310 2.7
Other 6,158 4.9
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India Electricity Sector:Background Summary
Consumption per capita of 400 kWh in 2004-05, assuming 25% technical T&D
loss; US consumption per capita 13,000 kWh
India sectoral consumption shares in 2004-05:
Industrial 35.6% -- Average tariff about 7 cents per kWh
Residential 24.8% -- Subsidized average tariff about 6 cents/kWh Commercial 8.1% -- Maximum tariff, about 9 cents per kWh
Agricultural 22.9% -- Heavily subsidized average tariff < 1 cent/kWh
Continued deficit supply in 2004-05:
Peak power deficit 11.6%
Energy deficit 8 %
Severe transmission and distribution (T&D) loss
About 50% in 2004-05 aggregate technical and commercial loss (AT&C)
Assuming 25% is technical loss -- 100 billion kWh or about $6 billion a year
Five year plan targets have not been met:
Against the 9th Plan (1997-02) target of 40,245 MW new capacity, addition was about 21,000 MW
Private sector target: 17,589 MW vs. a realized addition of 6,735 MW
10th plan (2002-07) target 41,010 MW, revised down to 36,956 MW, commissioned: 13,.416 MW
Deficits likely to continue in the near term
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Indias Electricity Intensity
Declined Beginning in 1993
Source:
Energy data IEA
Economic data World Bank
Electricity Cons./GDP
(kWh per 2000 US$, 1971 = 100)
0
50
100
150
200
250
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
US
China
India
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02-03 dispatch
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Hour
M
W
MSEBsupply
MSEBdemand
MSEBhydro
MSEBthermal
DPC
URAN
TEC
CENTRAL
Maharashtra State Electricity Board (MSEB)
Capacity Deficit Annual average (2002-03)(7836 GWh load shedding over 20 hours a day;
1376 MW average evening peak load shedding )
Source: Phadke and Sathaye (2005)
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Electricity Efficiency Programs Can
Play a Key Role
Indian states face several challenges
Growing electricity shortage, deteriorating utility finances, and fiscaldeficits
Improving electricity efficiency through DSM programs
for example can
Reduce electricity shortage, a national potential of about 10,000 MW
Improve utility revenue and financial position
Reduce state government subsidy and increase sales tax revenue
20 cents sales tax is lost for each kWh not delivered to businesses
Potential to eliminate between 15-25% of state fiscal deficit
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Industrial Sector Energy efficiency
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Continued improvement in Indiasindustrial energy intensity since mid-1980s
Industry Primary Ene rgy Consumption per Value Added
(US $ 2000, 1971 = 100)
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
197
1
197
4
197
7
198
0
198
3
198
6
198
9
199
2
199
5
199
8
200
1
US
China
India
Source: Energy data IEA
Economic data World Bank
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Industrial Production: Aluminum, Cement and SteelIndia is a Relatively Small Producer Except in the Case of Cement
100%1,090100%2,222100%29,800WorldTotal
58%63145%99366%19,752Other
8%92.44%99.18%2,516US
3%346%1303%862India
31%33345%1,00022%6,670China
200520052004
Million tonnesMillion tonnesThousand tonnes
Raw SteelCementAluminumCountry
Source: USGS, 2006
E Effi i
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Energy Efficiencyin the Indian Cement Industry
-Wide range in energy intensity in Indian cement industry
- Some of the most efficient plants in the world are in India
- Only 5% are inefficient wet kilns (vs. 18% in the U.S.)
- Energy savings and emission reduction possible through:
-Improved energy efficiency-Increased blending of cement
-Use of alternative fuels
-Waste heat power generation
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5
GJ/t cement
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
All Options
Energy EfficiencyBlended Cement (90% >> 70%)
Waste Heat Power Generation
Alt Fuels (Biomass)
Alt Fuels (Tires, Solvents)
Dry Kilns
Average
kgC/t cementSource: Sathaye et al. (2005)
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Cement Energy Intensity Trend, India
90
100
110
120
130
140
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
KWH/T CEMENT
DRY PROCESS KILNS
1200 TPD 4-ST SP KILNSPC KILNS
VRMs & 3000 TPD KILNS
LOW PR. PREHEATER &
EXPERT SYSTEMS
HIGH EFFICIENCY FANS, MECHANICAL
CONVEYORS
ROLLER PRESS & HIGH
EFFICIENCY SEPERATORS
Electrical Energy Consumption in Indian Cement Industry
700
900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
KCAL/KG CL.
DRY PROCESS KILNS
1200 TPD 4-ST SP KILNS
PC KILNS
5-STAGE PC KILNS
WET TO DRY CONVERSION
6 STAGE PC KILNS & MULTI-CHANNEL
BURNERSHIGH EFFICIENCY COOLERS
Thermal Energy Consumption in Indian Cement Industry
Source: Raina, 2002
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Energy Efficiency in the Steel Industry Electric Arc Furnace
Source: LBNL Estimate
0
2
4
6
8
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
SEC(primaryenergy,
GJ/tls)
Oxygen Lancing
Secondary metallurgy
Water-cooled walls
High-PowerComputer control
Foaming SlagOxy-fuel burner/water-cooled roof
Bottom-tapholeLadle (low-T tapping)
Eccentric Bottom TappingScrap Preheating
DC-arc technology
Pneumatic steering
Theoretical Minimum (thermodynamic minimum for steel melting and refining)
Practical Minimum (high efficiency, high power furnace with scrap preheating and maximum oxyfuel use)
India
US (450 kWh/tls)
Best Practice
Contiarc (2001)
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Estimated Energy IntensityCement and Steel Production
20+ ? (MECS 94: 26)5.4US28 -- 324.3India
23 -- 355.7China
(GJ / tonne cast steel)(GJ / tonne cement)
SteelCementCountry
Source: LBNL Estimate based on analysis of the industries in each country
Need better benchmarking of industrial energy use which will open opportunitiesfor voluntary energy efficiency programs
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Buildings and Appliances Energy Efficiency
C i t d f l dd t i i
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Conversion to modern fuels adds to increase inIndias household energy use per capita
Residential Primary Energy Consumption per Capita
(1971 = 100)
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
198
1
198
3
198
5
198
7
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
US
China
India
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Summary of Cost-EffectiveUnit Efficiency Potential for Four Products in India
Only Main Classes Shown
* Motor Consumption includes losses only.
Product Base Case
kWh/ ear
Efficiency Case
kWh/ ear
Percentage
Im rovement
Direct-cool 381 208 45%
Window 1191 1056 11%
Agricultural 5 HP 992* 875* 12%
Industrial 15 HP 4079* 3264* 20%
Industrial 20 HP 5562* 3387* 39%
63 kVA 1834 797 57%
100 kVA 2619 1068 59%
Refrigerator
Room air conditioner
Motors
Distribution transformer
Source: McNeill et al. (2005)
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Four-product Impact onEnergy Efficiency in India in 2020
Refrigerator
3.6%
AC
4.5%
Motors
12.1%
Distribution
transformer2.0%
Other
77.8%
TWh Percent TWh Percent
Refrigerators 45 3.6% 16.4 36.4%
Air Conditioners 56 4.5% 4.8 8.7%
Motors 151 12.1% 3.5 2.3%
Distribution transformers 25 2.0% 6.8 27.2%
All 4 Products 276 22.2% 31.5 11.4%
TOTAL India 1246 100.0% 31.5 2.5%
ProductConsumption Potential savings
Source: McNeill et al. (2005)
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Commercial Buildings
Growing share of electricity use
Several corporate buildings have been built to US
Business Councils platinum and gold LEED ratings
Government has stated goal for reducing its own
consumption in major buildings
Much of the sector still lags behind
ESCOs could play a major role in the sector
Financing and risk sharing remain key issues
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Energy efficiency: Key Institutions
India Energy Efficiency:
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India Energy Efficiency:Legislation, Institutions, Policies and Programs
Federal institutions created in the 1970s and 1980s Petroleum Conservation and Research Association (PCRA) under the
Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas in 1978
National Productivity Council and the Energy Management Center
Recent legislative mandates
Energy Conservation Act 2001
Created the Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) under the federal Ministry ofPower to
Develop policies and strategies for reducing energy intensity
Delegate authority to state energy development agencies
Develop standards and labels for refrigerators, air conditioners, motors,agricultural pumps, and distribution transformers
Electricity Act 2003
Sets up central and state-level independent regulatory commissions similarto those in the US, can mandate and finance DSM programs
Industry initiatives
Indian Green Business Center (GBC), Confederation of Indian Industry(CII)
Provides technical assistance and training to businesses
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Conclusions
Almost all approaches for improving energy efficiency are being
tested and tried in India, and the liberalized markets offer more
scope than in the past, still the pace is slow
Replication of successful practices and demonstrations is needed
Low hanging fruit, always on the other side of fence,
Need best practices to find the gate and pathway
Techno-economic analysis that is applied in a consistent
framework is critical for assessing potential and transferring
learning across countries
Energy efficiency which is often perceived as a blue collaroccupation needs to become a white-collar one
Large scale financing of bundled projects where the risk may be
shared
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Thank youPlease check these websites for
LBNL India publications and activities and links
http://ies.lbl.gov/iespubs/indiapubs.html
http://www.dc.lbl.gov/india/
Publication site will be updated regularly over the next month
Rapid decline in service sector energy intensity
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Rapid decline in service sector energy intensitydue to fast growth in services value added
Services Primary Energy Consumption per value Added
(1971 = 100)
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
US
China
India
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