india supply demand

8/8/2019 India Supply Demand

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India: Energy Demand and Supply andClimate Opportunities

Jayant A. Sathaye

Senior Staff ScientistLawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

Berkeley, CA

22 March 2006

Workshop on Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development andClimate Opportunities in China and India, Washington DC

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Contents

Energy situation in India: An Overview

Electric Power Sector Industrial Sector

Buildings and Appliances

Energy efficiency: Key Institutions

Conclusions


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Energy situation in India:

An Overview


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Primary Energy Supply*

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

1971

1975

1979

1983

1987

1991

1995

1999

2003

PJ

US

China

India

Primary Energy Supply* / GDP

(Indexed to 1971)

Source:

Energy data IEA

Economic data World Bank

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

US

China

India

* Excl. traditional biomass in India


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Coal continues to dominate energy mix,

although natural gas share has increasedIndia: Primary Supply by Energy Source

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

P

J

Solar/Wind/Other

Hydro

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal

Source: Energy data IEA


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Primary Energy Consumption, India

(Excl. traditional biomass)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,00012,000

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

PJ

Agriculture

Industry

Transport

Commercial

Residential

Sectoral Shares

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

Agriculture

Industry

Transport

Commercial

Residential

Increased Share of

Agriculture and

Residential and

Commercial Energy

Use:

Electricity subsidized

to both sectors

25% of state fiscal

deficit in many states

Subsidy is about $2billion annually

Source:

Energy data IEA


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Decomposing India CO2 Emissions:Economic and population growth more than offset recent

decline in CO2 emissions intensity

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

GDP/pop

Co2

Pop

CO2 / PE (t CO2 per TJ)PE/GDP

CO2 / GDP (kg CO2 per 2000 US$)

1050 Mt CO2

Source: Energy data IEA; Economic data World Bank


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Electric Power Sector


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Electricity Generation by Source

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

TWh

Solar/Wind/Other

BiomassHydro

Nuclear

Natural Gas

Oil

Coal

Shares

0%10%

20%30%

40%50%

60%70%

80%

90%100%

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

Solar/Wind/Other

Biomass

Hydro

Nuclear

Natural Gas

Oil

CoalSource: IEA Energy Data, and

Economic Survey, GOI, 2006

India GenerationCapacity (MW)

%

Total 123,668 100

Coal,Natural gas

Oil

68,43412,430

1,201

55.510.0

0.9Hydro 32,135 26.0

Nuclear 3,310 2.7

Other 6,158 4.9


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India Electricity Sector:Background Summary

Consumption per capita of 400 kWh in 2004-05, assuming 25% technical T&D

loss; US consumption per capita 13,000 kWh

India sectoral consumption shares in 2004-05:

Industrial 35.6% -- Average tariff about 7 cents per kWh

Residential 24.8% -- Subsidized average tariff about 6 cents/kWh Commercial 8.1% -- Maximum tariff, about 9 cents per kWh

Agricultural 22.9% -- Heavily subsidized average tariff < 1 cent/kWh

Continued deficit supply in 2004-05:

Peak power deficit 11.6%

Energy deficit 8 %

Severe transmission and distribution (T&D) loss

About 50% in 2004-05 aggregate technical and commercial loss (AT&C)

Assuming 25% is technical loss -- 100 billion kWh or about $6 billion a year

Five year plan targets have not been met:

Against the 9th Plan (1997-02) target of 40,245 MW new capacity, addition was about 21,000 MW

Private sector target: 17,589 MW vs. a realized addition of 6,735 MW

10th plan (2002-07) target 41,010 MW, revised down to 36,956 MW, commissioned: 13,.416 MW

Deficits likely to continue in the near term


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Indias Electricity Intensity

Declined Beginning in 1993

Source:

Energy data IEA


Electricity Cons./GDP

(kWh per 2000 US$, 1971 = 100)

0

50

100

150

200

250

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

US

China

India


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02-03 dispatch

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Hour

M

W

MSEBsupply

MSEBdemand

MSEBhydro

MSEBthermal

DPC

URAN

TEC

CENTRAL

Maharashtra State Electricity Board (MSEB)

Capacity Deficit Annual average (2002-03)(7836 GWh load shedding over 20 hours a day;

1376 MW average evening peak load shedding )

Source: Phadke and Sathaye (2005)


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Electricity Efficiency Programs Can

Play a Key Role

Indian states face several challenges

Growing electricity shortage, deteriorating utility finances, and fiscaldeficits

Improving electricity efficiency through DSM programs

for example can

Reduce electricity shortage, a national potential of about 10,000 MW

Improve utility revenue and financial position

Reduce state government subsidy and increase sales tax revenue

20 cents sales tax is lost for each kWh not delivered to businesses

Potential to eliminate between 15-25% of state fiscal deficit


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Industrial Sector Energy efficiency


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Continued improvement in Indiasindustrial energy intensity since mid-1980s

Industry Primary Ene rgy Consumption per Value Added

(US $ 2000, 1971 = 100)

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

197

1

197

4

197

7

198

0

198

3

198

6

198

9

199

2

199

5

199

8

200

1

US

China

India

Source: Energy data IEA



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Industrial Production: Aluminum, Cement and SteelIndia is a Relatively Small Producer Except in the Case of Cement

100%1,090100%2,222100%29,800WorldTotal

58%63145%99366%19,752Other

8%92.44%99.18%2,516US

3%346%1303%862India

31%33345%1,00022%6,670China

200520052004

Million tonnesMillion tonnesThousand tonnes

Raw SteelCementAluminumCountry

Source: USGS, 2006

E Effi i


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Energy Efficiencyin the Indian Cement Industry

-Wide range in energy intensity in Indian cement industry

- Some of the most efficient plants in the world are in India

- Only 5% are inefficient wet kilns (vs. 18% in the U.S.)

- Energy savings and emission reduction possible through:

-Improved energy efficiency-Increased blending of cement

-Use of alternative fuels

-Waste heat power generation

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5

GJ/t cement

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

All Options

Energy EfficiencyBlended Cement (90% >> 70%)

Waste Heat Power Generation

Alt Fuels (Biomass)

Alt Fuels (Tires, Solvents)

Dry Kilns

Average

kgC/t cementSource: Sathaye et al. (2005)


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Cement Energy Intensity Trend, India

90

100

110

120

130

140

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

KWH/T CEMENT

DRY PROCESS KILNS

1200 TPD 4-ST SP KILNSPC KILNS

VRMs & 3000 TPD KILNS

LOW PR. PREHEATER &

EXPERT SYSTEMS

HIGH EFFICIENCY FANS, MECHANICAL

CONVEYORS

ROLLER PRESS & HIGH

EFFICIENCY SEPERATORS

Electrical Energy Consumption in Indian Cement Industry

700

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

KCAL/KG CL.

DRY PROCESS KILNS

1200 TPD 4-ST SP KILNS

PC KILNS

5-STAGE PC KILNS

WET TO DRY CONVERSION

6 STAGE PC KILNS & MULTI-CHANNEL

BURNERSHIGH EFFICIENCY COOLERS

Thermal Energy Consumption in Indian Cement Industry

Source: Raina, 2002


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Energy Efficiency in the Steel Industry Electric Arc Furnace

Source: LBNL Estimate

0

2

4

6

8

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

SEC(primaryenergy,

GJ/tls)

Oxygen Lancing

Secondary metallurgy

Water-cooled walls

High-PowerComputer control

Foaming SlagOxy-fuel burner/water-cooled roof

Bottom-tapholeLadle (low-T tapping)

Eccentric Bottom TappingScrap Preheating

DC-arc technology

Pneumatic steering

Theoretical Minimum (thermodynamic minimum for steel melting and refining)

Practical Minimum (high efficiency, high power furnace with scrap preheating and maximum oxyfuel use)

India

US (450 kWh/tls)

Best Practice

Contiarc (2001)


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Estimated Energy IntensityCement and Steel Production

20+ ? (MECS 94: 26)5.4US28 -- 324.3India

23 -- 355.7China

(GJ / tonne cast steel)(GJ / tonne cement)

SteelCementCountry

Source: LBNL Estimate based on analysis of the industries in each country

Need better benchmarking of industrial energy use which will open opportunitiesfor voluntary energy efficiency programs


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Buildings and Appliances Energy Efficiency

C i t d f l dd t i i


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Conversion to modern fuels adds to increase inIndias household energy use per capita

Residential Primary Energy Consumption per Capita

(1971 = 100)

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

198

1

198

3

198

5

198

7

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

US

China

India


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Summary of Cost-EffectiveUnit Efficiency Potential for Four Products in India

Only Main Classes Shown

* Motor Consumption includes losses only.

Product Base Case

kWh/ ear

Efficiency Case

kWh/ ear

Percentage

Im rovement

Direct-cool 381 208 45%

Window 1191 1056 11%

Agricultural 5 HP 992* 875* 12%

Industrial 15 HP 4079* 3264* 20%

Industrial 20 HP 5562* 3387* 39%

63 kVA 1834 797 57%

100 kVA 2619 1068 59%

Refrigerator

Room air conditioner

Motors

Distribution transformer

Source: McNeill et al. (2005)


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Four-product Impact onEnergy Efficiency in India in 2020

Refrigerator

3.6%

AC

4.5%

Motors

12.1%

Distribution

transformer2.0%

Other

77.8%

TWh Percent TWh Percent

Refrigerators 45 3.6% 16.4 36.4%

Air Conditioners 56 4.5% 4.8 8.7%

Motors 151 12.1% 3.5 2.3%

Distribution transformers 25 2.0% 6.8 27.2%

All 4 Products 276 22.2% 31.5 11.4%

TOTAL India 1246 100.0% 31.5 2.5%

ProductConsumption Potential savings

Source: McNeill et al. (2005)


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Commercial Buildings

Growing share of electricity use

Several corporate buildings have been built to US

Business Councils platinum and gold LEED ratings

Government has stated goal for reducing its own

consumption in major buildings

Much of the sector still lags behind

ESCOs could play a major role in the sector

Financing and risk sharing remain key issues


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Energy efficiency: Key Institutions

India Energy Efficiency:


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India Energy Efficiency:Legislation, Institutions, Policies and Programs

Federal institutions created in the 1970s and 1980s Petroleum Conservation and Research Association (PCRA) under the

Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas in 1978

National Productivity Council and the Energy Management Center

Recent legislative mandates

Energy Conservation Act 2001

Created the Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) under the federal Ministry ofPower to

Develop policies and strategies for reducing energy intensity

Delegate authority to state energy development agencies

Develop standards and labels for refrigerators, air conditioners, motors,agricultural pumps, and distribution transformers

Electricity Act 2003

Sets up central and state-level independent regulatory commissions similarto those in the US, can mandate and finance DSM programs

Industry initiatives

Indian Green Business Center (GBC), Confederation of Indian Industry(CII)

Provides technical assistance and training to businesses


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Conclusions

Almost all approaches for improving energy efficiency are being

tested and tried in India, and the liberalized markets offer more

scope than in the past, still the pace is slow

Replication of successful practices and demonstrations is needed

Low hanging fruit, always on the other side of fence,

Need best practices to find the gate and pathway

Techno-economic analysis that is applied in a consistent

framework is critical for assessing potential and transferring

learning across countries

Energy efficiency which is often perceived as a blue collaroccupation needs to become a white-collar one

Large scale financing of bundled projects where the risk may be

shared


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Thank youPlease check these websites for

LBNL India publications and activities and links

http://ies.lbl.gov/iespubs/indiapubs.html

http://www.dc.lbl.gov/india/

Publication site will be updated regularly over the next month

Rapid decline in service sector energy intensity


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Rapid decline in service sector energy intensitydue to fast growth in services value added

Services Primary Energy Consumption per value Added

(1971 = 100)

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

US

China

India

india supply demand

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