incorporating climate change into ecosystem service ... · incorporating climate change into...

Incorporating climate change into ecosystem service assessments and

decisions: A review

Rebecca Runting (r.runting@uq.edu.au) @RKRunting

ACES, 7th December 2016

Supervisors:

Dr. Laura Dee,

Fleur Maseyk,

Dr. Lisa Mandle,

Dr. Perrine Hamel,

Prof. Kerrie Wilson,

KathleenYetka.

Collaborators:

A/Prof. Jonathan Rhodes

Dr. Brett Bryan

Prof. Hugh Possingham

Photo: Catherine Lovelock

Conceptual Framework

2r.runting@uq.edu.au @RKRunting

Aims

• Identify gaps relating to– Ecological/geographical context

– The inclusions in the study: • ecosystem services,

• attributes of climate change,

• other drivers,

• uncertainties,

• decision making

• Determine the impacts of climate change and other key drivers

• Identify methods used across assessment components

3r.runting@uq.edu.au @RKRunting

Literature search: Articles published between 1990 - July 2014 using specific key-words: (“ecosystem service*” OR “ecosystem good*”) AND (climat* NEAR chang*) n = 1567

Filter: Title and abstract examined for relevant studies.

n = 150

Irrelevant Studies excluded:n = 1417

Questionnaire: Full article is reviewed by two readers who independently complete the data extraction survey.

Irrelevant Studies excluded:n = 33

Crosscheck: The independent responses were compared then resolved through discussion. Further papers were excluded if it was agreed that they did not meet the requirements of the first filter.

n = 117

Analysis: Extracted data is summarized and analyzed.

Review Methods

4

Questions

(i) Study AreaLocation, spatial scale, type of ecosystem

(ii) Ecosystem services (ES)Which ES? Supply/demand?

(iii) Drivers: ClimateWhat aspects of climate change (e.g. temperature)?

Impact on ES? Methods used?

(iv) Drivers: OtherWhich drivers? Impact on ES? Interaction?

(v) Decision MakingNo. objectives? Which methods? Solutions?

(vi) UncertaintySource of uncertainty? Methods used? Are solutions robust to uncertainty?

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Results: Context of assessments

Location of assessments:

6r.runting@uq.edu.au @RKRunting

7

Results: Ecosystem services

8

Results: Impacts on ES

Climate change:

9

Results: Impacts on ES

Other drivers:

Results: Methods used

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Results: Methods used - impact

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Results: Methods used - impact

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Results: Uncertainty

Food

Raw materials

Freshwater

Medicinal Resources

Local Climate

Carbon Sequestration

Moderation of extreme events

Waste water treatment

Erosion prevention/soil fertility

Pollination

Biological control

Recreation

Tourism

Aesthetic appreciation

Spiritual

Methods

EmpircalStatistical (no field data)Statistical (with field data)Process-based (no field data)Process-based (with field data)Expert / stakeholderOther

a

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Number of analyses

Sce

nario

ana

lysis

Sen

sitiv

ity a

nalysis

Muliple m

odels

Pro

babilis

tic

Oth

er

Magnitude of climate change

Magnitude of other drivers

How climate change impacts ES

How other drivers impact ES

How an intervention impacts ES

How ES are supplied

How ES are delivered

49

23

2

1

1

1

0

8

3

5

0

3

10

2

25

1

2

0

0

1

2

1

1

1

1

0

1

2

0

1

0

0

1

5

0

49

c

b

0 20 40 60 80 100

Percent of analyses

Positive Negative Mixed Neutral

Empircal

Statistical (no field data)

Statistical (with field data)

Process-based (no field data)

Process-based (with field data)

Expert / stakeholder

Other

d

0 5 10 15 20

Number of analyses

Market methods

Production approaches

Avoidance cost

Replacement cost

Travel cost

Contingent valuation

Benefit transfer

Method used

Sou

rce

of

un

cert

ain

ty

Results: Decision Making

• Not often included:

• Rarely robust:– Only 5 studies had solutions/management strategies that were

robust.– 3 of these focused on a single ecosystem service (1 objective).– Usually only 1 or 2 sources of uncertainty.

Decision making

Uncertainty

Other drivers

Incorporated Mentioned Ignored

0 20 40 60 80 100

Percent of studies

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Conclusions

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• Variability of impacts across drivers, services and methods (!)

• Multiple drivers and uncertainties should be incorporated.

• Need to develop/apply robust decision making methods.

Photo: Catherine Lovelock