improving collaborative drought monitoring and early warning progress and challenges from the nidis...

Improving Collaborative Drought Monitoring and

Early Warning

Progress and Challenges from the NIDIS Upper Colorado River

Basin Pilot Project

Nolan Doesken, Wendy Ryan and Becky SmithColorado Climate CenterColorado State University

February 24, 2011NIDIS UCRB Review -- Boulder, CO

A short story about Drought

• 1954 -- my first drought • 1976-77 Colorado’s first big recreation drought – got

Gov. Lamm’s attention, but drought ended quickly• 1981 Short, intense drought under Gov. Lamm –

Colorado Drought Response Plan implemented• 1982-1999 Dedicated commitment to monitoring,

drought index development, data improvements -- but not much drought -- nice, full reservoirs and a lot of complacency

• 2000 – 2006 Drought returns and gets nasty• A decade of planning comes to fruition – NIDIS is born • Here we are – CCC gets involved in NIDIS UCRB Pilot

via initial Scoping Meeting and Remote Sensing assessment

2009 – Mostly Listening

• Interviewed many individuals and organizations to learn what they used, what they needed and what they wished they had when it came to drought information (results have been reported on at previous meetings)

2010 – Action Begins

• Moving towards a “basin specific” Drought Monitor

• Testing the waters of targeted “drought early warning”

2010 – Webinars and Weekly Assessment

Reports begun

Webinar and Assessment Content

• Recent and water year precipitation (us)• Snowpack status and changes (we lead but USDA

NRCS is usually present) • Streamflow (USGS)• Reservoirs (could use help here)• Soil Moisture• Predictions (next week – and sometimes

seasonal – refer to CBRFC )• Detailed assessment of USDM and

recommended changes (all chime in, especially NWS WFOs)

Michael LewisMichael Lewis

USGS Colorado Water Science CenterUSGS Colorado Water Science Center

February 24, 2011February 24, 2011

3 USGS Water Science CentersColoradoWyoming-Kirk MillerUtah-Cory Angeroth

Data SourcesUSGS real-time networkOnly gages with at least 30 years of recordRoughly 135 gages in spring, summer, fallRoughly 40-50 gages reporting in winterProvisional data used in the NIDIS

summaries

Spatial trends in streamflow

•7-day average streamflow•Percentile classes of streamflow

Temporal trends in streamflow

•7-day average streamflow•Percentile classes of streamflow• Begins in 2002, point of reference for low flows•Allows specific day of year comparison

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Temporal trends in streamflow

• Duration hydrographs presented for 3 “key” streamgages• Colorado River near CO-UT state line• Green River near Green River, UT• San Juan River near Bluff, UT

Cumulative Runoff

December 26, 2010Total runoff: 3.60 M acre-ft77% of normal

• Presented for same 3 “key” streamgages

Tracking Reservoirs

• Much progress but . . . . . Still a challenge

• The challenge is not getting the data, it is explaining the significance when we don’t fully understand the management

• Maybe we’re doing OK, but not sure

Green Mtn Reservoir Seasonal Cycle

Green Mtn Reservoir Time History

2010 – Summary• Intensive collaborative monitoring working

• Participation in Webinars modest

• Collaborations expanding and maturing

• Great teamwork has developed with CBRFC

• Became convinced that it would be most fruitful to work together towards improving the weekly USDM product rather than create a semi-independent basin specific Drought Monitor for UCRB

2011 – Current Efforts

• Weekly Webinars now underway through the runoff season (mid-late June)

• Weekly Assessment reports year round• Continuing to build “Community” – participation

remains “moderate”

• EVALUATION!!!

• Planning beyond the Pilot towards sustainability (not much time put into this yet)

• Research– Becky Smith PhD research on UCRB climate predictability now underway

2011 Evaluation Phase• Have now developed an extensive

“questionnaire” and are nearly ready to accept input and prepare to disseminate

• Categories of questionnaire -- Demographics -- Use and satisfaction in products and services -- webinar assessment -- USDM assessment -- U.S. Drought Portal assessment -- Use and value of seasonal prediction(will leave Streamflow prediction assessment to

CBRFC and NRCS)What are we missing??

Musings and Contemplations

• For 9 years now the “Drought” word has been tolerated in Colorado == that could stop again as memories fade. Utah seems less comfortable with the word than Colorado.

• Working across state lines has not been seamless. State Climatologists do best in their own states.

• Integration of “our” UCRB Drought Monitoring Community with Drought Portal does not come easy

More Musings

• Working with National Weather Service – often excellent, sometimes confusing. Is D2 a real or an artificial barrier?

• Communicating reservoir status to broad audiences is not easy -- each reservoir is its own beast and many of us are foreign to the coordinated operations process and don’t have time to learn it. We’ve made progress, but . . .

And even more

• Climate forecasts for this year were pretty good – but were they useful? Will assess

• Two year forecasts are coveted but hard to deliver with confidence

• What if future forecasts are weak on skill?• What if Klaus W is not around to sacrifice

his head on the forecast chopping block?• When do we hit the “too much info too

often” threshold?

- - and still more

• Full reservoirs and dry soil – and vice versa• Same content presented in predictable

order or add variety?• We’ve had enough drought around to keep

things interesting. What if the “urgency” goes away? Can we retain the “Community”?

• How large should the “community” be? We’ve really only scratched the surface in terms of the greater UCRB

Summary Thoughts

• Drought early warning? I think what we’re doing is helping

• Contribution to USDM process? Yes, it’s definitely helping

• Assessment and iterative improvement -- This is our priority for this year and we’ll covet your assistance in this assessment phase.