nolan j. doesken colorado climate...
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Drought UpdateDrought UpdateNovember 23, 2004 WATF MeetingNovember 23, 2004 WATF Meeting
Nolan J. Nolan J. DoeskenDoeskenColorado Climate CenterColorado Climate Center
presented at the Water Availability Task Force meeting, DOW, Denver, November 23, 2004
Prepared by Odie Bliss
http://ccc.atmos.colostate.edu
WY2004 HighlightsWY2004 Highlights
• Record warmth in October• Freezing drizzle storm for Halloween, cloudy• Good early snows over SW Colorado• Cold and snowcovered on the Western Slope midwinter• Fairly dry and dull midwinter elsewhere• A cold February• Very warm and dry March• Wet April -- Hurray!• Oops, warm and dry again in May• Cool and damp summer east of mountains• Hot and dry to the west• Moisture onslaught into Western Colorado in September
Water Year 2004 temperature departures from Water Year 2004 temperature departures from 19711971--2000 average2000 average
Water Year 2004
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Dep
artu
re fr
om a
vera
ge, d
egre
e F
Eastern Plains Foothills Mountains Western Valleys
Summer 2004 (MaySummer 2004 (May––Sep) precipitation as a percent Sep) precipitation as a percent of the 1971of the 1971--2000 average2000 average
Water Year 2004 precipitation as a percent of the Water Year 2004 precipitation as a percent of the 19711971--2000 average2000 average
SummarySummary
• A mild winter again• Another year with below average snowmelt
runoff• Generous growing season precipitation east of
the mountains• Coolest summer in a looong time• Improvements in soil moisture• Reservoirs hung in there• Significant runoff from rains
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2004/aug/aug04.html
Drought Monitor MapDrought Monitor Map
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/prelim/drought/st005dv00pcp.html
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/prelim/drought/st005dv00pcp.html
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/prelim/drought/st005dv00pcp.html
Colorado Precipitation Ranking1895-2004
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/prelim/drought/st005dv00pcp.html
Climate Climate divisions divisions
defined by Dr. defined by Dr. Klaus Klaus WolterWolter
of of NOAA'sNOAA'sClimate Climate
Diagnostic Diagnostic Center in Center in
Boulder, COBoulder, CO
Division 1Division 1-- Grand Lake 1NWGrand Lake 1NWGrand Lake 1 NW2005 Water Year
(Oct '04)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
Months
Acc
umul
ated
Pre
cipi
tatio
n (In
ches
)
30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1984 Min Year - 2002
Period of Record Average - 1941 - 2002 2005 Water Year Accumulated
Division 1Division 1-- Taylor ParkTaylor ParkTaylor Park
2005 Water Year (Oct '04)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
Months
Acc
umul
ated
Pre
cipi
tatio
n (In
ches
)
30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1999 Min Year - 1974Period of Record Average - 1942 - 2002 2005 Water Year Accumulated 2002 Water Year Accumulated
Division 2 Division 2 –– Grand JunctionGrand JunctionGrand Junction WSFO
2005 Water Year (Oct '04)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
Months
Acc
umul
ated
Pre
cipi
tatio
n (In
ches
)
30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1929 Min Year - 1956
Period of Record Average - 1893- 2002 2005 Water Year Accumulated 2002 Water Year Accumulated
Division 2 Division 2 –– CollbranCollbranCollbran 2SW
2005 Water Year (Oct '04)
0
5
10
15
20
25
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
Months
Acc
umul
ated
Pre
cipi
tatio
n (In
ches
)
30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1997 Min Year - 1974
Period of Record Average - 1893 - 2002 2005 Water Year Accumulated 2002 Water Year Accumulated
Division 3 Division 3 -- MontroseMontroseMontrose #2
2005 Water Year (Oct '04)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
Months
Acc
umul
ated
Pre
cipi
tatio
n (In
ches
)
30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1941 Min Year - 1958
Period of Record Average - 1893- 2002 2005 Water Year Accumulated 2002 Water Year Accumulated
Division 3 Division 3 –– CochetopaCochetopa CreekCreekCochetopa Creek2005 Water Year
(Oct '04)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
Months
Acc
umul
ated
Pre
cipi
tatio
n (In
ches
)
30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1957 Min Year - 2002
Period of Record Average - 1949 - 2002 2005 Water Year 2nd Min Year - 1950
Division 3 Division 3 ---- Mesa VerdeMesa VerdeMesa Verde NP2005 Water Year
(Oct '04)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
Months
Acc
umul
ated
Pre
cipi
tatio
n (In
ches
)
30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1941 Min Year - 1977Period of Record Average - 1893- 2002 2005 Water Year Accumulated 2002 Water Year
Division 4 Division 4 -- CenterCenterCenter 4SSW
2005 Water Year (Oct '04)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
Months
Acc
umul
ated
Pre
cipi
tatio
n (In
ches
)
30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1992 Min Year - 1951
Period of Record Average - 1971 - 2002 2002 Water Year 2005 Water Year
Division 4 Division 4 –– Del NorteDel NorteDel Norte
2005 Water Year (Oct '04)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
Months
Acc
umul
ated
Pre
cipi
tatio
n (In
ches
)
30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1985 Min Year - 1951Period of Record Average - 1921-2002 2005 Accumulated 2002 Accumulated Water Year
Division 5 Division 5 –– Colorado SpringsColorado SpringsColorado Springs2005 Water Year
(Oct '04)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
Months
Acc
umul
ated
Pre
cipi
tatio
n (In
ches
)
30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1999 Min Year - 1939
Period of Record Average - 1893-2002 2005 Water Year Accumulated 2002 Water Year Accumulated
Division 5 Division 5 -- PuebloPuebloPueblo WSO
2005 Water Year (Oct '04)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
Months
Acc
umul
ated
Pre
cipi
tatio
n (In
ches
)
30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1942 Min Year - 2002Period of Record Average - 1874-2000 2005 Water Year Accumulated
Division 5 Division 5 –– Buena VistaBuena VistaBuena Vista
2005 Water Year (Oct '04)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
Months
Acc
umul
ated
Pre
cipi
tato
n (In
ches
)
30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1965 Min Year - 1902
2005 Water Year Accumulated Period of Record Average - 1901 - 2002 2002 Water Year Accumulated
Division 5 Division 5 –– Canon CityCanon CityCanon City
2005 Water Year (Oct '04)
0
5
10
15
20
25
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
Months
Acc
umul
ated
Pre
cipi
tatio
n (In
ches
)
30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1957 Min Year - 1962
Period of Record Average - 1906 - 2002 2005 Water Year Accumulated 2002 Water Year Accumulated
Division 6 Division 6 –– Cheyenne WellsCheyenne WellsCheyenne Wells2005 Water Year
(Oct '04)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
Months
Acc
umul
ated
Pre
cipi
tatio
n (In
ches
)
30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1909 Min Year - 1956Period of Record Average - 1971 - 2002 2005 Water Year 2002 Water Year Accumulated
Division 6 Division 6 –– Rocky FordRocky FordRocky Ford
2005 Water Year (Oct '04)
0
5
10
15
20
25
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
Months
Acc
umul
ated
Pre
cipi
tatio
n (In
ches
)
30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1999 Min Year - 2002Period of Record Average - 1889-2002 2005 Water Year Accumulated
Division 7 Division 7 –– AkronAkronAkron 4E
2005 Water Year (Oct '04)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
Months
Acc
umul
ated
Pre
cipi
tatio
n (In
ches
)
30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1915 Min Year - 2002Period of Record Average - 1906 - 2002 2005 Water Year Accumulated
Division 7 Division 7 -- LeroyLeroyLeroy 5SW
2005 Water Year (Oct '04)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
Months
Acc
umul
ated
Pre
cipi
tatio
n (In
ches
)
30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1995 Min Year - 1894Period of Record Average - 1890-2002 200 Water Year Accumulated 2002 Water Year Accumulated
Division 8 Division 8 –– Boulder Boulder Boulder
2005 Water Year(Oct '04)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
OCTNOV
DECJA
NFEB
MARAPR
MAYJU
N JUL
AUGSEP
Months
Acc
umul
ated
Pre
cipi
tatio
n (in
ches
)
2005 Water Year 30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1995
Min Year - 1966 Period of Record Average - 1894-2002 2002 Water Year
Division 8 Division 8 –– CheesmanCheesmanCheesman
2005 Water Year (Oct '04)
0
5
10
15
20
25
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
Months
Acc
umul
ated
Pre
cipi
tato
n (In
ches
)
30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1970 Min Year - 2002Period of Record Average - 1904 - 2002 2005 Water Year
Division 8 Division 8 –– KasslerKasslerKassler
2005 Water Year (Oct '04)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
Months
Acc
umul
ated
Pre
cipi
tatio
n (In
ches
)
30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1915 Min Year - 1956Period of Record Average - 1899 - 2002 2005 Water Year Accumulated 2002 Water Year Accumulated
Division 8 Division 8 –– Fort CollinsFort CollinsFort Collins
2005 Water Year (Oct '04)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
OCTNOV
DECJA
NFEB
MARAPR
MAYJU
NJU
LAUG
SEP
Month
Accu
mul
ated
Pre
cipi
tatio
n (in
ches
)
30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1961 Min Year - 1966
Period of Record Average - 1890 - 2002 2005 Water Year 2002 WY
3030--Year Average October Maximum Temperatures Year Average October Maximum Temperatures
Oct 2004 Oct 2004 TmaxTmax
3030--Year Average October Minimum TemperaturesYear Average October Minimum Temperatures
Oct 2004 Oct 2004 TminTmin temperatures maptemperatures map
October 2004 Average TemperaturesOctober 2004 Average Temperatures
Oct 2004 precipitation mapOct 2004 precipitation map
Precipitation:Precipitation:October 2004October 2004
Courtesy of Oregon Climate Service, http://www.ocs.orst.edu/prism
11--month month Percent of Percent of Average Average Precipitation Precipitation ––October 2004October 2004
Courtesy of Oregon Climate Service, http://www.ocs.orst.edu/prism
3 Month SPI3 Month SPI
12 Month SPI12 Month SPI
48 Month SPI48 Month SPI
Fraction of Colorado in DroughtFraction of Colorado in DroughtFraction of Colorado in Drought
Based on 48 month SPI(1890 - Oct 2004)
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1890
1892
1894
1896
1898
1900
1902
1904
1906
1908
1910
1912
1914
1916
1918
1920
1922
1924
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1928
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1932
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1936
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1964
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1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
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1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Year
Frac
tion
(in p
erce
nt)
Calibration period is 1961-2000. Data values produced by John Kleist.
Projected Conditions at 0.2 Probability Level Projected Conditions at 0.2 Probability Level 12 Month SPI at 6 months12 Month SPI at 6 months
Projected Conditions at 0.5 Probability Level Projected Conditions at 0.5 Probability Level 12 Month SPI at 6 months12 Month SPI at 6 months
Projected Conditions at 0.8 Probability Level Projected Conditions at 0.8 Probability Level 12 Month SPI at 6 months12 Month SPI at 6 months
Projected Conditions at 0.2 Probability Level Projected Conditions at 0.2 Probability Level 48 Month SPI at 12 months48 Month SPI at 12 months
Projected Conditions at 0.5 Probability Level Projected Conditions at 0.5 Probability Level 48 Month SPI at 12 months48 Month SPI at 12 months
Projected Conditions at 0.8 Probability Level Projected Conditions at 0.8 Probability Level 48 Month SPI at 12 months48 Month SPI at 12 months
How About CoCoRaHS?How About CoCoRaHS?
Colorado Overview Precipitation11/11/04 for the 24-hour ending at 7 am
CoCoRaHS Snow MapsCoCoRaHS Snow Maps
Colorado Overview New Snowfall Map11/20/2004 ending at 7:00 am
Colorado Overview New Snowfall Map11/21/2004 ending at 7:00 am
For more information visit theFor more information visit theCoCoCoCo RaHSRaHS Web siteWeb site
http://http://www.cocorahs.orgwww.cocorahs.org
Support for this project provided by Informal Science Education Program,National Science Foundationandmany local charter sponsors.
Colorado Climate CenterColorado Climate CenterColorado State UniversityColorado State University
Data and Power Point Presentations available Data and Power Point Presentations available for downloadingfor downloading
http://ccc.atmos.colostate.eduhttp://ccc.atmos.colostate.edu•• click on “Drought” click on “Drought” •• then click on “Presentations”then click on “Presentations”