i. climate change variability and andean agriculture: the context sanrem crsp ltr4: adapting to...
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I. Climate Change Variability I. Climate Change Variability and Andean Agriculture: The and Andean Agriculture: The
ContextContextSANREM CRSP LTR4: Adapting to SANREM CRSP LTR4: Adapting to
Change in the AndesChange in the Andes Practices and Strategies to Address Practices and Strategies to Address
Market and Climate Risks in Vulnerable Market and Climate Risks in Vulnerable EcosystemsEcosystems
Corinne ValdiviaCorinne Valdivia
Outline
• Livelihoods Diversity and Networks (NOAA HD)
• ENSO Climate Variability and Use of Information – CPAs (WB CIP)
• Adapting to change (SANREM CRSP)
• Purpose – focus on diversity, access and implications for adaptation (Loeb et al, 2008; Brown and Funk, 2008, Science)
Livelihoods Diversity and Networks (NOAA HD)
Rural Livelihood Strategies
Activities
Outputs Outcomes
Assets
+ Production and Consumption are interlinked+ Markets are unreliable+ Limited credit markets + Smoothing of consumption may deplete productive assets+ Social dimensions to accessing resources are relevant
Coping and Adapting
Ex-ante:• Income Smoothing
– Diversifying: – within agriculture– selling labor – Value added– > less covariant
activities• Portfolio Diversity -
number and share of income activities
Ex-post:• Consumption Smoothing
– Loans– Sale of assets– Migration
Adapting:• Activities more resilient to
climate variability
NOAA HUMAN DIMENSIONS: CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND HOUSEHOLD WELFARE IN THE ANDES AND USE OF CLIMATE FORECASTS
Findings on Diversity Indices of Economic Portfolios in San
José 93-95-99
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1993 1995 1999
Intensives/Rural/Dairy
Extensives/Agriculture/Potato
Elderly
E/P
EML
N
MF
Espiritu WilquiIncamaya
Tholatia
Savilani
CallunimayaBarrio
Network 1
Network 2 Network 3 Network 4 Network 5
Network 7
Network 6
ML
Network for Local Knowledge
ME
P
N
N
ML
MF: Dairy Forages
ML: Dairy Labor
E: Elderly
P: Potato
N: not in cluster
Main Network Structure San José Bolivia
Main constraints to the growth in production after el Niño in the Altiplano:Lack of seed in all groupsLack of cash in the agricultural and passiveLack of more land on the agricultural and passive
Sources of information about climate forecasts for decisions:Local knowledge systemsKnowledge from grandparentsLocal networks
Limited outside sources of information 4%Concern with climate risk a function of ability to cope with shock
– differences between rural and the other two groups
Transitioning to climate resilient development: Perspectives from
communities in PeruWB – CIP – MU
With CIRNMA and ITDG
Piura – Participatory Rural Assessment Piura – Participatory Rural Assessment
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TAMBO GRANDE FRIAS
PIURACASTILLA
CATACAOS
CURA MORI
LA ARENA
LA UNION EL TALLAN
VICE BELLAVISTA DE LA UNION
RINCONADA DE LLICUAR BERNAL
CRISTO NOS VALGA
SECHURA
CHULUCANAS
LA MATANZA
SANTO DOMINGO
CHALACO
SANTA CATALINA DE MOSSA
YAMANGOMORROPON
LALAQUIZ
BUENOS AIRES
SAN JUAN DE BIGOTE
SALITRAL
CANCHAQUE
SAN MIGUEL DE EL FAIQUE
HUARMACA
S
SUBCUENCA SAN FRANCISCO
SUBCUENCA YAPATERA
VALLE BAJO PIURA
ZONA MARINO COSTERABAHIA DE SECHURA
500000
500000
520000
520000
540000
540000
560000
560000
580000
580000
600000
600000
620000
620000
640000
640000 660000 680000
93400009360000
PROGRAMA DE FORTALECIMIENTO DE CAPACIDADES NACIONALES PARAMANEJAR EL IMPACTO DEL CAMBIO CLIMATICO Y
CONTAMINACION DEL AIRE - PROCLIM
INTERMEDIATE TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT GROUPPROGRAMA DE PREVENCION DE DESASTRESY GOBERNABILIDAD LOCAL
ING. LUIS POZO ANCHANTE
PATRONES DE RIESGOS DE DESASTRE ASOCIADOS CON LOS EFECTOS LOCALESDEL CAMBIO CLIMATICO GLOBAL EN LA REGION PIURA:PROCESOS SOCIALES, VULNERABILIDAD Y ADAPTACION
ZONA 17PROYECCION UTMWGS 84
ESCALA GRAFICAFECHA: JUNIO 2004
11AREAS DE INTERES DE LA CUENCA DEL RIO PIURA
660000 680000
9340
000
9360
000
9380
000 9380000
9400
000 9400000
9420
000 9420000
9440
000 9440000
9460
000 9460000
9480
000 9480000
N
EW
S
Central SierraCentral Sierra
Dry ForestDry Forest
Bajo Piura: Irrigation Bajo Piura: Irrigation and Cropsand Crops
Caleta Pescadores: Caleta Pescadores: ParachiqueParachique
º
Communities represent the diversity of environmental, population and productive agroecosystems.
Fisheries TownFisheries Town
Lake, CropLivestock QDairy Cattle
Mainly CropsSome Livestock
An. LivestockCrop PS
SM. Crop Livestock
Lake, A.Crops and Informal Trade
Southern Peru – Participatory Rural AssessmentSouthern Peru – Participatory Rural AssessmentCommunities represent ethnicities, agroecosystem and productive
diversity of Peru’s Altiplano
Participatory Workshop MethodsParticipatory Workshop Methods
Time Line Development
Large Groups
Participatory MappingCommunity ParticipatoryAssessments
Focus Groups
Participatory Assessments
KEY FINDINGS
Climate Events: Impacts in the North
– Floods during El Niño – Floods also during non Niño heavy rains– Dry and Cold spells in consecutive years (two,
three, or four years)– Forest fires following Niño years– Disease outbreaks during Niño years– Concerns vary according to location,
production activities, technological alternatives
Southern Highlands Rural Communities Southern Highlands Rural Communities
Multiple ShocksCovariant risksMultiple ShocksCovariant risks
DroughtsFrostsFloodsHailSnow
DroughtsFrostsFloodsHailSnow
FINDINGSFINDINGS
Climate Events: Impacts in the South– Spatial variability in the presentation of
droughts, floods, frosts, and hail events – Droughts during Niño years, in some but not all
communities in same year– Floods during wet years from the Lake – Upper respiratory diseases during cold spells– Concerns vary according to location,
production activities, technological alternatives: loss of animals, loss of crops, raw materials
Coping Strategies
In the Northern Coast• Selling of livestock• Over-harvesting in dry
forest - deforestation• Collective strategies
during floods• Individual strategies
during droughts• Migration of adult males
and youth to the jungle and the coast
Southern Altiplano• Selling of livestock• Selling of wool and
handcrafts• Stinting on food in the
family• Informal trade• Migration of male adults
and youth • Non market institutions:
access to land, seed, labor (social reciprocity relations)
Role of Climate InformationInformation About El Niño• Awareness and trust in the
North; • Radio is a trusted source;
official forecasting sources “not trusted”;
• Scale is a constraint in the forecasts for the Altiplano region;
• El Niño forecasts listened to in radio in the Altiplano perceived as “belonging” to the coast;
• While a connection between El Niño and drought occurrence appears to exist in the Altiplano … multiple shocks
Local Knowledge Indicators• Local scale biological and
physical indicators in the North and the Altiplano
• Perceptions that climate is changing, difficulties “reading” the indicators
• Local knowledge exists for agriculture and fisheries
• Loss of knowledge among the youth
• Use knowledge differs between the North and the Altiplano
Barriers to Adaptation
In All Communities• Limited understanding and
access to local and regional governance structures
• Progressive loss of assets leading to poverty trap
• Lack of access to credit• Lack of insurance mechanisms• Lack of technological
alternatives• Lack of trust in information of
forecasts• Erosion of social structures
due to migration (local knowledge)
In the Altiplano• Multiple and consecutive
shock events- uncertainty• Lack of understanding of
presentation of the hail, frost, and flood events: landscape
In the North Coast• Isolation during periods of
drought• Flood relocation conflicts• Long periods of stress during
dry years
Resilience or Trap: Assets and Ability to Recover from Shock and Stress
About depletion of assets and traps: Ellis; Zimmerman and Carter; Valdivia et al; de Waal and Tumushabe; Sheik;
Sacks et al
Adaptation - Resilience
Trap
Time
Livelihoods
Ability to Recover is f (number & type of shocks; assets)
SANREM CRSP LTRA4
Adapting to Change
Adapting to Change Five Objectives -– Shared understanding of drivers of change in Andean
Ecosystems – Local knowledge and response to perceptions of
relative risks associated with drivers and other risks – Practices and information that explicitly link local and
new knowledge to adapt to change – Market integration opportunities and institutions that
contribute to adaptation – Build capacities and capabilities to adapt to change –
pathways to enable agency
Multiple Disciplines –
Production System
Livelihood System
Community/watershed-Comunidad
Landscape/Ecosystem-Paisaje/Ecosistema
Governance/Gobernabilidad
Climate Marketdrivers
Shocks & stresses
Adaptations Negotiations
Structure/Estructuras Agency/ Capacidad de
Actuar - Negociación
Knowledge Networksand Coalitions
SocialCapital
CulturalCapital
ConstructedCapital
FinancialCapital
PoliticalCapital
NaturalCapital
HumanCapital
Hypotheses on the current state and its driversPests Local ClimateSoils Local MarketsBiodiversity Livelihoods
Transformative HypothesesBridging knowledge systems for changeBuilding coalitions to implement changeRisk and dread and ability to act
Secondary research is used to fill in the gaps in primary research as needed for each site.
10 communities10 communitiesAltitudeAltitudeVulnerabilityVulnerabilityDiverse systemsDiverse systemsAccess to MarketsAccess to Markets
AncoraimesAncoraimesUmala Umala Ilave Ilave
Integrating knowledge systems
Participatory Approaches: a. To identify concerns, demands, perceptions, risks, and vulnerabilities; b. To conduct research; c. To share findings (socialización)
An Integrated Plan for Participatory Research and Evaluation of Impacts
#S
Ancoraimes
Chinchaya
ChumaPuerto Carabuco Sorata
Combaya
AchacachiC
op
L
A
G
O
Chinchaya
Karkapata
República de Bolivia
Departamento de La PazMunicipio Ancoraimes
Comunidad Chinchaya%U
%U
%U
%U
%U
%U
%U
%U
%U
Beni
Pando
Oruro
La Paz
PotosiTar ija
Santa Cruz
Cochabamba
Chuquisaca
#S
Sehuenkha PampaCerro Chacapata
Kankerani Pampa
Cerro Yacaen Pata
Comunidad Sotaraya
Comunidad Chinchaya
518000
518000
520000
520000
522000
522000
524000
524000
8238000 8238
000
8240000 8240
000
8242000 8242
000
N
EW
S
Escala:1:40000
Mapa de Cobertura Vegetal Comunidad Chinchaya del Municipio Ancoraimes, Departamento de La Paz
Leyenda:
#S Centro poblado
Limite Comunal
1 0 1 2 3 4 Kilometers
Vegetación
Bofedales
Eucalipto,chilligua
Kaligua, sicuya, chilligua,thola
Thola, chilligua
Fuente: Taller de percepción comunal Proyecto: Prácticas y estrategias de adaptación a los riesgos climáticos y de mercado en agroecosistemas vulnerables del Altiplano BolivianoEl límite comunal no tienen caracter oficial.
#S
Sehuenkha Pampa
Cerro Chacapata
Kankerani Pampa
Cerro Yacaen Pata
ComunidadSotaraya
ComunidadChinchaya
518000
518000
520000
520000
522000
522000
524000
524000
8238000 8238
000
8240000 8240
000
8242000 8242
000
N
EW
S
1 0 1 2 3 4 Kilometers
%U
%U
%U
%U
%U
%U
%U
%U
%U
Beni
Pando
Oruro
La Paz
PotosiTar ija
Santa Cruz
Cochabamba
Chuquisaca
#S
Ancoraimes
Chinchaya
ChumaPuerto Carabuco Sorata
Combaya
AchacachiC
op
L
A
G
O
Chinchaya
Karkapata
República de Bolivia
Departamento de La PazMunicipio AncoraimesComunidad Chinchaya
#S Centro pobladoLimite Comunal
Leyenda:
Mapa de Uso actual de Suelos Comunidad Chinchaya del Municipio Ancoraimes, Departamento de La Paz
Escala:1:40000
Uso actual de suelos
Tieras comunitarias, cultivos anuales (Oca, papa, quinua, cebada,arveja)Agropecuaria extensiva con cultivos anuales(haba, cebada, cebolla, papa, avena, alfalfa, trigo)Pastoreo y descanso
Fuente: Taller de percepción comunal Proyecto: Prácticas y estrategias de adaptación a los riesgos climáticos y de mercado en agroecosistemas vulnerables del Altiplano BolivianoEl límite comunal no tienen caracter oficial.
#S
Ancoraimes
Chinchaya
ChumaPuerto Carabuco Sorata
Combaya
AchacachiC
op
L
A
G
O
Chinchaya
Karkapata
República de Bolivia
Departamento de La PazMunicipio AncoraimesComunidad Chinchaya
%U
%U
%U
%U
%U
%U
%U
%U
%U
Beni
Pando
Oruro
La Paz
PotosiTarija
Santa Cruz
Cochabamba
Chuquisaca
Uso de suelos
N
EW
S
8242
0008242000
8240
0008240000
8238
0008238000
524000
524000
522000
522000
520000
520000
518000
518000
#
Sehuenkha PampaCerro Chacapata
Kankerani Pampa
Cerro Yacaen Pata
Comunidad Sotaraya
Comunidad Chinchaya
Escala:1:40000
Mapa de Uso de Suelos (Antiguamente)Comunidad Chinchaya del Municipio Ancoraimes, Departamento de La Paz
Leyenda:
#S Centro pobladoLimite Comunal
1 0 1 2 3 4 Kilometers
Fuente: Taller de percepción comunal Proyecto: Prácticas y estrategias de adaptación a los riesgos climáticos y de mercado en agroecosistemas vulnerables del Altiplano BolivianoEl límite comunal no tienen caracter oficial.
Agricultura extensiva con cultivos en rotacion(oca,arveja,cebada,quinua)Agropecuaria extensiva con cultivos anuales (papa, cebada, cebolla, avena, alfalfa, trigo)Ainoka(papa,quinua, oca,quinua,arveja,cebada)Pastoreo
#S
Ancoraimes
Chinchaya
ChumaPuerto Carabuco Sorata
Combaya
Achacachi
Chinchaya
Karkapata
República de Bolivia
Departamento de La PazMunicipio AncoraimesComunidad Chinchaya
#S
Ancoraimes
Chinchaya
ChumaPuerto Carabuco Sorata
Combaya
Achacachi
Chinchaya
Karkapata
%U
%U
%U
%U
%U
%U
%U
%U
%U
Beni
Pando
Oruro
La Paz
PotosiTar ija
Santa Cruz
Cochabamba
Chuquisaca
%U
%U
%U
%U
%U
%U
%U
%U
%U
Beni
Pando
Oruro
La Paz
PotosiTar ija
Santa Cruz
Cochabamba
Chuquisaca
Escala:1:40000
Leyenda:
#S Centro poblado
Limite Comunal
Mapa de Vulnerabilidad Comunidad Chinchaya del Municipio Ancoraimes, Departamento de La Paz
#S
Sehuenkha Pampa
Cerro Chacapata
Kankerani Pampa
Cerro Yacaen Pata
Comunidad Sotaraya
Comunidad Sotaraya
518000
518000
520000
520000
522000
522000
524000
524000
8238000 8238
000
8240000 8240
000
8242000 8242
000
N
EW
S
Vulnerabilidad
Erosión,granizo
Fertilidad, granizo
Helada, granizo
Sequia y granizo
Fuente: Taller de percepción comunal Proyecto: Prácticas y estrategias de adaptación a los riesgos climáticos y de mercado en agroecosistemas vulnerables del Altiplano BolivianoEl límite comunal no tienen caracter oficial.
1 0 1 2 3 4 Kilometers
Participatory Maps – Chinchaya: Land Cover, Land Use Change, and Vulnerabilities
BEFORE
AFTERVULNERABILITY
Erosion, Drought, Frost
Studying Livelihoods Strategies Market Integration, Climate and
Perceptions of Risks
Income Level & Diversification: differences in regions and communities
Household income levels in Umala are twice the income of Ancoraimes
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Ancoraimes Umala
An
nu
al In
com
e in
$u
s
Other sources ofincome
Income for independentactivities
Income from wages
Income for agriculturalactivities
Jimenez Valdivia and Romero
Human Capital: gender matters
In both contexts, women have lower schooling than men
012345678
Ancoraimes Umala
Yea
rs o
f sc
ho
olin
g
Male Female
Natural Capital: Land fragmentation Ancoraimes and Umala
Hectareas de terreno (2005-006)
0
1
2
3
4
5
Sembradas Descanso Pastizales Alfares
Uso de la tierra
Has
Ancoraimes Umala
Livestock Assets: A coping strategy for shocks in Ancoraimes
Tenencia de ganado
0
510
15
20
2530
35
40
Ove
jacr
iolla
Ove
jam
ejor
ada
Vac
uno
crio
llo
Vac
uno
mej
orad
o
Por
cino
Auq
uéni
do
Pro
med
io
Ancoraimes Umala
Natural Capital: crop diversification
Greater crop diversification in Ancoraimes
0
10
20
30
40
50
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Number of Crops
Porc
enta
ge
Ancoraimes Umala
Greater diversity of potato varieties in Umala
0
10
20
30
40
1 2 3 4 5 6 8 9 11
Number of varieties
Porce
ntage
Ancoraimes Umala
Dread of pests in disease high Dread of frosts, floods, drought differentiated by region
Social Capital: individual’s participation within producer and community organizations
Participation in community organizations is basically the same in both sites
0
20
40
60
80
100
Producer Organizations Community Organizations
Po
rcen
tag
e
Ancoraimes Umala
Differences in the nature of social capital and articulation to markets
Access to credit is limitedAcceso a crédito en los últimos 5 años
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Ancoraimes Umala
No
Si
Fuente de crédito
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Ancoraimes Umala
Banco, Ongs Financieras Amigos, Familiares
Availability of contingency markets to buffer shocks varies by regioncommunities and households
Perception of risks and assetsRiesgos climáticos (o=no riesgo; 5=alto riesgo)
Familias con capitales: Granizo Heladas Sequía Inundaciones
Mayores 3.91 4.24 4.61 4.27
Medianos 3.97 4.28 4.59 4.41
Menores 4.13 4.52 4.79 4.15
Riesgos de mercado Riesgos Sociales
Familias con capitales:
Precios bajos para sus cultivos
Precios bajos para su ganado
Bloqueos
Mayores 3.64 3.67 3.09
Medianos 3.57 3.70 2.97
Menores 3.67 3.72 3.50
Valdivia Jimenez and Romero 2007
Rees Valdivia and Marks – assets and off farm income matter in perceptions of risk
Synthesis – Lessons to Date • Climate impacts on livelihood assets, and
therefore on ability to recover – locality and variation
• Land fragmentation and shocks – off farm and migration at region and local levels – variation
• Markets have multiple effects:– Secure prices, an incentive mediated by the type of
natural capitals accessed (forages an example of dairy development) – long term
– Incentives may lead to increases in vulnerability to climate if specialization – evaluation of portfolios & TC
– Coping with shocks – asset depletion – lack of contingency markets – high degree of covariant shocks - further research
– Niches that value biodiversity – further research
Synthesis – Lessons to Date • Role of climate information in decisions –
networks, local knowledge to date – disconnect to outside sources - local
• Approaches to integrate new knowledge – climate and participatory approaches –climate trends and scenarios
• Social and political capitals as elements of agency for adaptation – climate scenarios and trends
Appendix
2nd Canonical Variable: Strategy (Xs) and Response (Ys) and Correlations
1993 1995 1999
X Age 0.65 -0.08 -0.35
X Labor -0.35 0.03 0.2
X Forages -0.39 0.49 0.25
X Cattle Improved -0.12 0.58 0.47
X Off farm Y 0.37 -0.52 0.11
X Food crops 0.86 -0.29 -0.31
Y Income 0.57 -0.35 0.07
Y Diversity Index -1.12 1.04 0.98
Canonical Correlat. 0.61 0.77 0.78
Valdivia and Quiroz 2003
1st Canonical Variable: Strategy (Xs) and Response (Ys) and Correlations
1993 1995 1999
X Age -0.07 -0.07 0.04
X Labor 0.01 0.06 0.07
X Forages 0.19 0.28 0.14
X Cattle Improved 0.35 0.18 0.07
X Off farm Y 0.29 0.69 0.02
X Food crops 0.38 0.29 0.97
Y Income 0.97 0.98 1.05
Y Diversity Index 0.06 0.08 -0.4
Canonical Correlat. 0.92 0.93 0.92Valdivia and Quiroz 2003
Capital Político
Medios de Vida, Capitales y Estrategias
InstitucionesInstitucionesAcción ColectivaAcción Colectiva
PolíticasPolíticas
Strateg
ies
New New Knowledge Knowledge
& & InformationInformation
Human Capital
Capital Natural
Capital Social
Capital Económico
Capital Público
ClimateMarkets
SustentabilidadSustentabilidad
Capacidad de Actuar Capital
Creado
Capital Cultural
“lo que las personas pueden lograr o ser con sus derechos”
Valdivia, 2001, 2004
• 450 households interviewed
• 180 farmers participating in research groups
• 350 farmers and researchers participated in CPAs
• Field Days
KnowledgeKnowledge
Capacities: Degree and Non Degree Training
• Non degree: – Training of researchers: surveys,
CPA, participatory methods, GIS (13 events13 events)
– Training of farmers: pests and diseases, management, repellents, management of forages (22 22 eventsevents)
– Participatory assessments with farmer groups (27 activities)27 activities)
• Degree training: 27 students 27 students – 11 11 LicenciaturaLicenciatura – 12 MS12 MS– 4 PhD4 PhD– CIDES UNALMCIDES UNALM
Y por lo tanto cada grupo tiene diferentes percepciones de control sobre el riesgo:
Control sobre riesgo de mercado Control sobre riesgo social
Familias con capitales:
Precios bajos para sus cultivos
Precios bajos para su ganado
Bloqueos
Mayores 2.36 2.42 2.21
Medianos 2.71 2.82 2.12
Menores 2.00 1.85 1.87
Control sobre riesgo climático (0=no control, 5=total control)
Familias con capitales:
granizo heladas sequia inundaciones
Mayores 2.76 1.52 1.15 1.52
Medianos 2.63 1.62 1.28 1.68
Menores 2.70 1.48 1.20 1.54
En Bolivia: ANCORAIMES En Bolivia: ANCORAIMES
4 comunidades4 comunidades3850 - 43003850 - 4300
Y UmalaY Umala
4 comunidades4 comunidades 3,770 - 4,0703,770 - 4,070
Peru
Puno
Intervention sites
APOPATAAPOPATA
SANTA MARIASANTA MARIA
4,400m13,000Has80 Fam
3,900m340 Has60 Fam400-600mm
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