i. climate change variability and andean agriculture: the context sanrem crsp ltr4: adapting to...

I. Climate Change Variability I. Climate Change Variability and Andean Agriculture: The and Andean Agriculture: The

ContextContextSANREM CRSP LTR4: Adapting to SANREM CRSP LTR4: Adapting to

Change in the AndesChange in the Andes Practices and Strategies to Address Practices and Strategies to Address

Market and Climate Risks in Vulnerable Market and Climate Risks in Vulnerable EcosystemsEcosystems

Corinne ValdiviaCorinne Valdivia

Outline

• Livelihoods Diversity and Networks (NOAA HD)

• ENSO Climate Variability and Use of Information – CPAs (WB CIP)

• Adapting to change (SANREM CRSP)

• Purpose – focus on diversity, access and implications for adaptation (Loeb et al, 2008; Brown and Funk, 2008, Science)

Livelihoods Diversity and Networks (NOAA HD)

Rural Livelihood Strategies

Activities

Outputs Outcomes

Assets

+ Production and Consumption are interlinked+ Markets are unreliable+ Limited credit markets + Smoothing of consumption may deplete productive assets+ Social dimensions to accessing resources are relevant

Coping and Adapting

Ex-ante:• Income Smoothing

– Diversifying: – within agriculture– selling labor – Value added– > less covariant

activities• Portfolio Diversity -

number and share of income activities

Ex-post:• Consumption Smoothing

– Loans– Sale of assets– Migration

Adapting:• Activities more resilient to

climate variability

NOAA HUMAN DIMENSIONS: CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND HOUSEHOLD WELFARE IN THE ANDES AND USE OF CLIMATE FORECASTS

Findings on Diversity Indices of Economic Portfolios in San

José 93-95-99

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1993 1995 1999

Intensives/Rural/Dairy

Extensives/Agriculture/Potato

Elderly

E/P

EML

N

MF

Espiritu WilquiIncamaya

Tholatia

Savilani

CallunimayaBarrio

Network 1

Network 2 Network 3 Network 4 Network 5

Network 7

Network 6

ML

Network for Local Knowledge

ME

P

N

N

ML

MF: Dairy Forages

ML: Dairy Labor

E: Elderly

P: Potato

N: not in cluster

Main Network Structure San José Bolivia

Main constraints to the growth in production after el Niño in the Altiplano:Lack of seed in all groupsLack of cash in the agricultural and passiveLack of more land on the agricultural and passive

Sources of information about climate forecasts for decisions:Local knowledge systemsKnowledge from grandparentsLocal networks

Limited outside sources of information 4%Concern with climate risk a function of ability to cope with shock

– differences between rural and the other two groups

Transitioning to climate resilient development: Perspectives from

communities in PeruWB – CIP – MU

With CIRNMA and ITDG

Piura – Participatory Rural Assessment Piura – Participatory Rural Assessment

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TAMBO GRANDE FRIAS

PIURACASTILLA

CATACAOS

CURA MORI

LA ARENA

LA UNION EL TALLAN

VICE BELLAVISTA DE LA UNION

RINCONADA DE LLICUAR BERNAL

CRISTO NOS VALGA

SECHURA

CHULUCANAS

LA MATANZA

SANTO DOMINGO

CHALACO

SANTA CATALINA DE MOSSA

YAMANGOMORROPON

LALAQUIZ

BUENOS AIRES

SAN JUAN DE BIGOTE

SALITRAL

CANCHAQUE

SAN MIGUEL DE EL FAIQUE

HUARMACA

S

SUBCUENCA SAN FRANCISCO

SUBCUENCA YAPATERA

VALLE BAJO PIURA

ZONA MARINO COSTERABAHIA DE SECHURA

500000

500000

520000

520000

540000

540000

560000

560000

580000

580000

600000

600000

620000

620000

640000

640000 660000 680000

93400009360000

PROGRAMA DE FORTALECIMIENTO DE CAPACIDADES NACIONALES PARAMANEJAR EL IMPACTO DEL CAMBIO CLIMATICO Y

CONTAMINACION DEL AIRE - PROCLIM

INTERMEDIATE TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT GROUPPROGRAMA DE PREVENCION DE DESASTRESY GOBERNABILIDAD LOCAL

ING. LUIS POZO ANCHANTE

PATRONES DE RIESGOS DE DESASTRE ASOCIADOS CON LOS EFECTOS LOCALESDEL CAMBIO CLIMATICO GLOBAL EN LA REGION PIURA:PROCESOS SOCIALES, VULNERABILIDAD Y ADAPTACION

ZONA 17PROYECCION UTMWGS 84

ESCALA GRAFICAFECHA: JUNIO 2004

11AREAS DE INTERES DE LA CUENCA DEL RIO PIURA

660000 680000

9340

000

9360

000

9380

000 9380000

9400

000 9400000

9420

000 9420000

9440

000 9440000

9460

000 9460000

9480

000 9480000

N

EW

S

Central SierraCentral Sierra

Dry ForestDry Forest

Bajo Piura: Irrigation Bajo Piura: Irrigation and Cropsand Crops

Caleta Pescadores: Caleta Pescadores: ParachiqueParachique

º

Communities represent the diversity of environmental, population and productive agroecosystems.

Fisheries TownFisheries Town

Lake, CropLivestock QDairy Cattle

Mainly CropsSome Livestock

An. LivestockCrop PS

SM. Crop Livestock

Lake, A.Crops and Informal Trade

Southern Peru – Participatory Rural AssessmentSouthern Peru – Participatory Rural AssessmentCommunities represent ethnicities, agroecosystem and productive

diversity of Peru’s Altiplano

Participatory Workshop MethodsParticipatory Workshop Methods

Time Line Development

Large Groups

Participatory MappingCommunity ParticipatoryAssessments

Focus Groups

Participatory Assessments

KEY FINDINGS

Climate Events: Impacts in the North

– Floods during El Niño – Floods also during non Niño heavy rains– Dry and Cold spells in consecutive years (two,

three, or four years)– Forest fires following Niño years– Disease outbreaks during Niño years– Concerns vary according to location,

production activities, technological alternatives

Southern Highlands Rural Communities Southern Highlands Rural Communities

Multiple ShocksCovariant risksMultiple ShocksCovariant risks

DroughtsFrostsFloodsHailSnow

DroughtsFrostsFloodsHailSnow

FINDINGSFINDINGS

Climate Events: Impacts in the South– Spatial variability in the presentation of

droughts, floods, frosts, and hail events – Droughts during Niño years, in some but not all

communities in same year– Floods during wet years from the Lake – Upper respiratory diseases during cold spells– Concerns vary according to location,

production activities, technological alternatives: loss of animals, loss of crops, raw materials

Coping Strategies

In the Northern Coast• Selling of livestock• Over-harvesting in dry

forest - deforestation• Collective strategies

during floods• Individual strategies

during droughts• Migration of adult males

and youth to the jungle and the coast

Southern Altiplano• Selling of livestock• Selling of wool and

handcrafts• Stinting on food in the

family• Informal trade• Migration of male adults

and youth • Non market institutions:

access to land, seed, labor (social reciprocity relations)

Role of Climate InformationInformation About El Niño• Awareness and trust in the

North; • Radio is a trusted source;

official forecasting sources “not trusted”;

• Scale is a constraint in the forecasts for the Altiplano region;

• El Niño forecasts listened to in radio in the Altiplano perceived as “belonging” to the coast;

• While a connection between El Niño and drought occurrence appears to exist in the Altiplano … multiple shocks

Local Knowledge Indicators• Local scale biological and

physical indicators in the North and the Altiplano

• Perceptions that climate is changing, difficulties “reading” the indicators

• Local knowledge exists for agriculture and fisheries

• Loss of knowledge among the youth

• Use knowledge differs between the North and the Altiplano

Barriers to Adaptation

In All Communities• Limited understanding and

access to local and regional governance structures

• Progressive loss of assets leading to poverty trap

• Lack of access to credit• Lack of insurance mechanisms• Lack of technological

alternatives• Lack of trust in information of

forecasts• Erosion of social structures

due to migration (local knowledge)

In the Altiplano• Multiple and consecutive

shock events- uncertainty• Lack of understanding of

presentation of the hail, frost, and flood events: landscape

In the North Coast• Isolation during periods of

drought• Flood relocation conflicts• Long periods of stress during

dry years

Resilience or Trap: Assets and Ability to Recover from Shock and Stress

About depletion of assets and traps: Ellis; Zimmerman and Carter; Valdivia et al; de Waal and Tumushabe; Sheik;

Sacks et al

Adaptation - Resilience

Trap

Time

Livelihoods

Ability to Recover is f (number & type of shocks; assets)

SANREM CRSP LTRA4

Adapting to Change

Adapting to Change Five Objectives -– Shared understanding of drivers of change in Andean

Ecosystems – Local knowledge and response to perceptions of

relative risks associated with drivers and other risks – Practices and information that explicitly link local and

new knowledge to adapt to change – Market integration opportunities and institutions that

contribute to adaptation – Build capacities and capabilities to adapt to change –

pathways to enable agency

Multiple Disciplines –

Production System

Livelihood System

Community/watershed-Comunidad

Landscape/Ecosystem-Paisaje/Ecosistema

Governance/Gobernabilidad

Climate Marketdrivers

Shocks & stresses

Adaptations Negotiations

Structure/Estructuras Agency/ Capacidad de

Actuar - Negociación

Knowledge Networksand Coalitions

SocialCapital

CulturalCapital

ConstructedCapital

FinancialCapital

PoliticalCapital

NaturalCapital

HumanCapital

Hypotheses on the current state and its driversPests Local ClimateSoils Local MarketsBiodiversity Livelihoods

Transformative HypothesesBridging knowledge systems for changeBuilding coalitions to implement changeRisk and dread and ability to act

Secondary research is used to fill in the gaps in primary research as needed for each site.

10 communities10 communitiesAltitudeAltitudeVulnerabilityVulnerabilityDiverse systemsDiverse systemsAccess to MarketsAccess to Markets

AncoraimesAncoraimesUmala Umala Ilave Ilave

Integrating knowledge systems

Participatory Approaches: a. To identify concerns, demands, perceptions, risks, and vulnerabilities; b. To conduct research; c. To share findings (socialización)

An Integrated Plan for Participatory Research and Evaluation of Impacts

#S

Ancoraimes

Chinchaya

ChumaPuerto Carabuco Sorata

Combaya

AchacachiC

op

L

A

G

O

Chinchaya

Karkapata

República de Bolivia

Departamento de La PazMunicipio Ancoraimes

Comunidad Chinchaya%U

%U

%U

%U

%U

%U

%U

%U

%U

Beni

Pando

Oruro

La Paz

PotosiTar ija

Santa Cruz

Cochabamba

Chuquisaca

#S

Sehuenkha PampaCerro Chacapata

Kankerani Pampa

Cerro Yacaen Pata

Comunidad Sotaraya

Comunidad Chinchaya

518000

518000

520000

520000

522000

522000

524000

524000

8238000 8238

000

8240000 8240

000

8242000 8242

000

N

EW

S

Escala:1:40000

Mapa de Cobertura Vegetal Comunidad Chinchaya del Municipio Ancoraimes, Departamento de La Paz

Leyenda:

#S Centro poblado

Limite Comunal

1 0 1 2 3 4 Kilometers

Vegetación

Bofedales

Eucalipto,chilligua

Kaligua, sicuya, chilligua,thola

Thola, chilligua

Fuente: Taller de percepción comunal Proyecto: Prácticas y estrategias de adaptación a los riesgos climáticos y de mercado en agroecosistemas vulnerables del Altiplano BolivianoEl límite comunal no tienen caracter oficial.

#S

Sehuenkha Pampa

Cerro Chacapata

Kankerani Pampa

Cerro Yacaen Pata

ComunidadSotaraya

ComunidadChinchaya

518000

518000

520000

520000

522000

522000

524000

524000

8238000 8238

000

8240000 8240

000

8242000 8242

000

N

EW

S


%U

%U

%U

%U

%U

%U

%U

%U

%U

Beni

Pando

Oruro

La Paz

PotosiTar ija

Santa Cruz

Cochabamba

Chuquisaca

#S

Ancoraimes

Chinchaya


Combaya

AchacachiC

op

L

A

G

O

Chinchaya

Karkapata


Departamento de La PazMunicipio AncoraimesComunidad Chinchaya

#S Centro pobladoLimite Comunal

Leyenda:

Mapa de Uso actual de Suelos Comunidad Chinchaya del Municipio Ancoraimes, Departamento de La Paz

Escala:1:40000

Uso actual de suelos

Tieras comunitarias, cultivos anuales (Oca, papa, quinua, cebada,arveja)Agropecuaria extensiva con cultivos anuales(haba, cebada, cebolla, papa, avena, alfalfa, trigo)Pastoreo y descanso


#S

Ancoraimes

Chinchaya


Combaya

AchacachiC

op

L

A

G

O

Chinchaya

Karkapata



%U

%U

%U

%U

%U

%U

%U

%U

%U

Beni

Pando

Oruro

La Paz

PotosiTarija

Santa Cruz

Cochabamba

Chuquisaca

Uso de suelos

N

EW

S

8242

0008242000

8240

0008240000

8238

0008238000

524000

524000

522000

522000

520000

520000

518000

518000

#

Sehuenkha PampaCerro Chacapata

Kankerani Pampa

Cerro Yacaen Pata

Comunidad Sotaraya

Comunidad Chinchaya

Escala:1:40000

Mapa de Uso de Suelos (Antiguamente)Comunidad Chinchaya del Municipio Ancoraimes, Departamento de La Paz

Leyenda:

#S Centro pobladoLimite Comunal



Agricultura extensiva con cultivos en rotacion(oca,arveja,cebada,quinua)Agropecuaria extensiva con cultivos anuales (papa, cebada, cebolla, avena, alfalfa, trigo)Ainoka(papa,quinua, oca,quinua,arveja,cebada)Pastoreo

#S

Ancoraimes

Chinchaya


Combaya

Achacachi

Chinchaya

Karkapata



#S

Ancoraimes

Chinchaya


Combaya

Achacachi

Chinchaya

Karkapata

%U

%U

%U

%U

%U

%U

%U

%U

%U

Beni

Pando

Oruro

La Paz

PotosiTar ija

Santa Cruz

Cochabamba

Chuquisaca

%U

%U

%U

%U

%U

%U

%U

%U

%U

Beni

Pando

Oruro

La Paz

PotosiTar ija

Santa Cruz

Cochabamba

Chuquisaca

Escala:1:40000

Leyenda:

#S Centro poblado

Limite Comunal

Mapa de Vulnerabilidad Comunidad Chinchaya del Municipio Ancoraimes, Departamento de La Paz

#S

Sehuenkha Pampa

Cerro Chacapata

Kankerani Pampa

Cerro Yacaen Pata

Comunidad Sotaraya

Comunidad Sotaraya

518000

518000

520000

520000

522000

522000

524000

524000

8238000 8238

000

8240000 8240

000

8242000 8242

000

N

EW

S

Vulnerabilidad

Erosión,granizo

Fertilidad, granizo

Helada, granizo

Sequia y granizo



Participatory Maps – Chinchaya: Land Cover, Land Use Change, and Vulnerabilities

BEFORE

AFTERVULNERABILITY

Erosion, Drought, Frost

Studying Livelihoods Strategies Market Integration, Climate and

Perceptions of Risks

Income Level & Diversification: differences in regions and communities

Household income levels in Umala are twice the income of Ancoraimes

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

Ancoraimes Umala

An

nu

al In

com

e in

$u

s

Other sources ofincome

Income for independentactivities

Income from wages

Income for agriculturalactivities

Jimenez Valdivia and Romero

Human Capital: gender matters

In both contexts, women have lower schooling than men

012345678

Ancoraimes Umala

Yea

rs o

f sc

ho

olin

g

Male Female

Natural Capital: Land fragmentation Ancoraimes and Umala

Hectareas de terreno (2005-006)

0

1

2

3

4

5

Sembradas Descanso Pastizales Alfares

Uso de la tierra

Has

Ancoraimes Umala

Livestock Assets: A coping strategy for shocks in Ancoraimes

Tenencia de ganado

0

510

15

20

2530

35

40

Ove

jacr

iolla

Ove

jam

ejor

ada

Vac

uno

crio

llo

Vac

uno

mej

orad

o

Por

cino

Auq

uéni

do

Pro

med

io

Ancoraimes Umala

Natural Capital: crop diversification

Greater crop diversification in Ancoraimes

0

10

20

30

40

50

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Number of Crops

Porc

enta

ge

Ancoraimes Umala

Greater diversity of potato varieties in Umala

0

10

20

30

40

1 2 3 4 5 6 8 9 11

Number of varieties

Porce

ntage

Ancoraimes Umala

Dread of pests in disease high Dread of frosts, floods, drought differentiated by region

Social Capital: individual’s participation within producer and community organizations

Participation in community organizations is basically the same in both sites

0

20

40

60

80

100

Producer Organizations Community Organizations

Po

rcen

tag

e

Ancoraimes Umala

Differences in the nature of social capital and articulation to markets

Access to credit is limitedAcceso a crédito en los últimos 5 años

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Ancoraimes Umala

No

Si

Fuente de crédito

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Ancoraimes Umala

Banco, Ongs Financieras Amigos, Familiares

Availability of contingency markets to buffer shocks varies by regioncommunities and households

Perception of risks and assetsRiesgos climáticos (o=no riesgo; 5=alto riesgo)

Familias con capitales: Granizo Heladas Sequía Inundaciones

Mayores 3.91 4.24 4.61 4.27

Medianos 3.97 4.28 4.59 4.41

Menores 4.13 4.52 4.79 4.15

Riesgos de mercado Riesgos Sociales

Familias con capitales:

Precios bajos para sus cultivos

Precios bajos para su ganado

Bloqueos

Mayores 3.64 3.67 3.09

Medianos 3.57 3.70 2.97

Menores 3.67 3.72 3.50

Valdivia Jimenez and Romero 2007

Rees Valdivia and Marks – assets and off farm income matter in perceptions of risk

Synthesis – Lessons to Date • Climate impacts on livelihood assets, and

therefore on ability to recover – locality and variation

• Land fragmentation and shocks – off farm and migration at region and local levels – variation

• Markets have multiple effects:– Secure prices, an incentive mediated by the type of

natural capitals accessed (forages an example of dairy development) – long term

– Incentives may lead to increases in vulnerability to climate if specialization – evaluation of portfolios & TC

– Coping with shocks – asset depletion – lack of contingency markets – high degree of covariant shocks - further research

– Niches that value biodiversity – further research

Synthesis – Lessons to Date • Role of climate information in decisions –

networks, local knowledge to date – disconnect to outside sources - local

• Approaches to integrate new knowledge – climate and participatory approaches –climate trends and scenarios

• Social and political capitals as elements of agency for adaptation – climate scenarios and trends

Appendix

2nd Canonical Variable: Strategy (Xs) and Response (Ys) and Correlations

1993 1995 1999

X Age 0.65 -0.08 -0.35

X Labor -0.35 0.03 0.2

X Forages -0.39 0.49 0.25

X Cattle Improved -0.12 0.58 0.47

X Off farm Y 0.37 -0.52 0.11

X Food crops 0.86 -0.29 -0.31

Y Income 0.57 -0.35 0.07

Y Diversity Index -1.12 1.04 0.98

Canonical Correlat. 0.61 0.77 0.78

Valdivia and Quiroz 2003

1st Canonical Variable: Strategy (Xs) and Response (Ys) and Correlations

1993 1995 1999

X Age -0.07 -0.07 0.04

X Labor 0.01 0.06 0.07

X Forages 0.19 0.28 0.14

X Cattle Improved 0.35 0.18 0.07

X Off farm Y 0.29 0.69 0.02

X Food crops 0.38 0.29 0.97

Y Income 0.97 0.98 1.05

Y Diversity Index 0.06 0.08 -0.4

Canonical Correlat. 0.92 0.93 0.92Valdivia and Quiroz 2003

Capital Político

Medios de Vida, Capitales y Estrategias

InstitucionesInstitucionesAcción ColectivaAcción Colectiva

PolíticasPolíticas

Strateg

ies

New New Knowledge Knowledge

& & InformationInformation

Human Capital

Capital Natural

Capital Social

Capital Económico

Capital Público

ClimateMarkets

SustentabilidadSustentabilidad

Capacidad de Actuar Capital

Creado

Capital Cultural

“lo que las personas pueden lograr o ser con sus derechos”

Valdivia, 2001, 2004

• 450 households interviewed

• 180 farmers participating in research groups

• 350 farmers and researchers participated in CPAs

• Field Days

KnowledgeKnowledge

Capacities: Degree and Non Degree Training

• Non degree: – Training of researchers: surveys,

CPA, participatory methods, GIS (13 events13 events)

– Training of farmers: pests and diseases, management, repellents, management of forages (22 22 eventsevents)

– Participatory assessments with farmer groups (27 activities)27 activities)

• Degree training: 27 students 27 students – 11 11 LicenciaturaLicenciatura – 12 MS12 MS– 4 PhD4 PhD– CIDES UNALMCIDES UNALM

Y por lo tanto cada grupo tiene diferentes percepciones de control sobre el riesgo:

Control sobre riesgo de mercado Control sobre riesgo social


Precios bajos para sus cultivos

Precios bajos para su ganado

Bloqueos

Mayores 2.36 2.42 2.21

Medianos 2.71 2.82 2.12

Menores 2.00 1.85 1.87

Control sobre riesgo climático (0=no control, 5=total control)


granizo heladas sequia inundaciones

Mayores 2.76 1.52 1.15 1.52

Medianos 2.63 1.62 1.28 1.68

Menores 2.70 1.48 1.20 1.54

En Bolivia: ANCORAIMES En Bolivia: ANCORAIMES

4 comunidades4 comunidades3850 - 43003850 - 4300

Y UmalaY Umala

4 comunidades4 comunidades 3,770 - 4,0703,770 - 4,070

Peru

Puno

Intervention sites

APOPATAAPOPATA

SANTA MARIASANTA MARIA

4,400m13,000Has80 Fam

3,900m340 Has60 Fam400-600mm

i. climate change variability and andean agriculture: the context sanrem crsp ltr4: adapting to...

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