hydrologic cycle – will it remain stationary? · 2012-08-16 · hydrologic & environmental...

HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELINGHYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING

Hydrologic Cycle – will it remain stationary?

Primary Variables of interest:

Temperature

Precipitation

Evapotranspiration

Groundwater/Surface Watre

Saltwater Intrusion

Implications for: Water Management, Natural

Systems

Energy

Agriculture

Tourism, Transportation

Health

SOLAR RADIATION

Evaluation of Downscaled Climate Model Information for FloridaJayantha Obeysekera (‘Obey’)Chief Modeler, SFWMDAffiliate Research Professor, CES, FAU

Jayantha Obeysekera (‘Obey’)Chief Modeler, SFWMDAffiliate Research Professor, CES, FAU

Hydrology of the Everglades in the Context of Climate Change Workshop March 29-30, 2012, FAU Davie Campus

Research publications

Everglades Restoration – Will traditional planning approach work?

Natural System Managed System CERP

General Circulation Models

(GCMs)

Observed Climate Data

Is there evidence that climate is changing in

Florida? How well are south Florida’s climate and

teleconnectionsrepresented by climate

models?

How do climate projections affect water resources management?

Simulation of Late 20th Century

21st Century Climate

Projections

Downscale (Statistical & Dynamical) global information to regional information

Using Climate Change Information

Climate Projection UncertaintiesIn

elDownscaling

Scenarios

GCM(IPCC, 2007)

Statistical

Dynamical

B1 A1T B2 A1B A2 A1FI

1.1-2.9 (○C)

1.4-3.8 (○C)

1.7-4.4 (○C)

2.0-5.4 (○C)

2.4-6.4(○C)

0.18-0.38 (m)

0.20-0.45 (m)

0.20-0.43 (m)

0.21-0.48 (m)

0.23-0.51 (m)

0.26- 0.59 (m)

l Clim

Climate Change Implications in Water Resources Planning: Scenario based approaches Use all models Model Culling?

CGHRCGMRCNCM3CSMK3ECHOGFGOALSGFCM20GFCM21GIAOMINCM3IPCM4MIHRMIMRMPEH5NCCCSMNCPCM

44 4546

1 WEST PALM BEACH INTERNA 2 DAYTONA BEACH INTL AP 3 INGLIS 3 E 4 SAINT LEO 5 VENUS 6 DOWLING PARK 1 W 7 PENSACOLA REGIONAL AP 8 JACKSONVILLE INTL AP 9 MARINELAND 10 MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AP 11 ST PETERSBURG 12 MELBOURNE WFO 13 MOORE HAVEN LOCK 1 14 TAMIAMI TRAIL 40 MI BEN 15 LYNNE 16 ORTONA LOCK 2 17 PARRISH 18 PORT MAYACA S L CANAL 19 ST LUCIE NEW LOCK 1 20 LAKELAND 21 PENNSUCO 5 WNW 22 CLEWISTON 23 CANAL POINT GATE 5 24 FOLKSTON GA25 KEY WEST INTL AP 26 NICEVILLE 27 TALLAHASSEE WSO AP 28 BELLE GLADE HRCN GT 4 29 LISBON 30 NORTH NEW RVR CANAL 2 31 GRACEVILLE 1 SW 32 BRISTOL 33 FARGO GA34 APALACHICOLA AIRPORT

35 VENICE 36 BOCA RATON 37 FORT MYERS PAGE FIELD A 38 COOLIDGE GA39 WOODRUFF DAM 40 MIAMI WSO CITY 41 RAIFORD STATE PRISON 42 VERO BEACH 4 SE 43 BLACKMAN 44 BROOKSVILLE 7 SSW 45 ORLANDO INTL AP 46 ORLANDO WSO AIRPORT 47 LIGNUMVITAE KEY 48 LOXAHATCHEE 49 GRADY 50 OKEECHOBEE 51 LAMONT 6 WNW 52 ORANGE CITY 53 BRANFORD 54 GAINESVILLE 3 WSW 55 BROOKSVILLE CHIN HILL 56 CROSS CITY 2 WNW 57 KISSIMMEE 2 58 MONTICELLO 5 SE 59 PANAMA CITY 5 N 60 BAINBRIDGE GA61 TAMIAMI CANAL 62 BAINBRIDGE GA INTL PAPER63 VERO BEACH MUNI ARPT 64 PENSACOLA WB CITY 65 PANAMA CITY 2 66 VERNON 67 NORTH NEW RIVER CANAL 1 68 WAUSAU

-86 -84 -82 -80

Alachua

Apopka

Arcadia

Avalon

Belle Glade

Bronson

Brooksville

Carrabelle

Clewiston

Fort Lau

Frostproof

Fort Pierce

Hastings

Homestead

Immokalee

Indian River

KenansvilleLake Alfred

Live Oak Macclenny

Marianna

Monticello

North Port

Ocklawaha

Okahumpka

Palmdale

Pierson

Putnam Hall

Quincy

Sebring

Umatilla

1 Alachua2 Apopka3 Arcadia4 Avalon5 Balm6 Belle Glade7 Bronson8 Brooksville9 Carrabelle10 Citra11 Clewiston12 Dover13 Fort Lauderdale14 Frostproof15 Fort Pierce16 Hastings17 Homestead18 Immokalee19 Indian River20 Jay21 Kenansville22 Lake Alfred23 Live Oak24 Macclenny25 Marianna26 Monticello27 North Port28 Ocklawaha29 Okahumpka30 Ona31 Palmdale32 Pierson33 Putnam Hall34 Quincy35 Sebring36 Umatilla

USGS map

UCF - extremes

Validation Data

GCM Resolution (Land sea mask) in Florida

Uncertainties in GCM predictions due to:

Poor resolution – South Florida not even modeled in some GCMs; greater errors at smaller scales

From IPCC AR4-WG1, Ch. 8 - Simulation of tropical precipitation, ENSO, clouds and their response to climate change, etc.

Statistically Downscaled Data for US (1/8 degree) – BCSD/BCCA methods

A2 Emissions Scenario

GFDL CCSMHADCM3link to European

Prudence

1971-2000 current 2040-2070 futureProvide boundary conditions

MM5Iowa State/PNNL

RegCM3UC Santa CruzICTP

CRCMQuebec,Ouranos

HADRM3Hadley Centre

RSMScripps

WRFNCAR/PNNL

CAM3Time slice

GFDLTime slice

NARCCAP Scenario & Model Suite

GCM Skill for Florida

Projected Temperature Change from AOGCMs (for 2050) – Posterior Distribution

•The vertical bars correspond to the percentiles, 5% and 95% of the posteriordistributions of temperature change for b1,a1b, and a2 scenarios (red, black and blue)

Future Projections – Temperature & Precipitation

all modelsensemble mean

Change: Magnitude & Seasonality

-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30

Everglades

%Change in Mean Annual Precip.

2041:2070 versus 1971:2000

b1A1bA2

Spatial Trends

Temperature

Latitude increasing

PrecipitationLatitude increasing

Changes in duration of “dog days” & “freezing temperatures”

Dog days – Mean Number of days average above 80º FHistorical

Change from1970-1999to 2040-2069

CGCM3-CRCM HADCM3-HRM3

Absolute ValueChange from1970-1999to 2040-2069

Freezing – Mean Number of days minimum below 32º F

Absolute ValueChange from1970-1999to 2040-2069

Change from1970-1999to 2040-2069

Temperature

NARCCAP

Precipitation

NARCCAP

BiasTemperature

NARCCAP

BiasPrecipitation

NARCCAP

ChangeTemperature

NARCCAP

ChangePrecipitation

NARCCAP

ChangeTemperature

NARCCAP

ChangePrecipitation

NARCCAP

Model skill: Precipitation Extremes (Rainfall Depth – Duration)

By 2050 (findings to date - may change as science evolves)

Variable Global ModelsStatistically

Downscaled Data Dynamically

Downscaled Data

Average Temperature

1 to 1.5ºC 1 to 2ºC 1.6 to 2.4ºC

Precipitation -10% to +10% -5% to +5% -3 to 6 inches

Reference Crop Evapotranspiration

3 to 6 inches*

Water Supply ThreatsPrecipitation & Temperature Change Sensitivity

(2050 with Climate Change) minus 2050 (CERP with CC) minus CERP0

*Surface Ponding decrease > 0.3 feet

CC change: Precipitation decrease of 10% while potential evapotranspiration (PET) was estimated using an increase the daily temperature by 1.5°Celsius. The exact impact of global climate change on evapotranspiration is not known and therefore a simple temperature based method was used to estimate the change in solar radiation for computing PET

Ocean Land Atmosphere Model (RAMAS) Team at RSMAS:

• Dr. Brian Soden

• Dr. Amy Clement

• Dr. Robert Walko

• Dr. Craig Mattocks

• Roque Vinicio Cespedes (MS student)

How will landusechanges affect micro-climate?

Global Model with local mesh

refinement

Summary

Resolutions of GCMs inadequate to capture hydro-meteorology of Florida peninsulaSkills of models for regional climate

information may not be adequate, yet. More work is need to verify and improve the methods/models.Need to work together on a “unified set of

climate scenarios” for Florida.

Questions?

Extra slides

Tropical Storms & Climate Change

Premature to conclude that human activities have had detectable impact on hurricane activity

Tropical cyclones to shift towards strong storms (2-11% intensity increase by 2100)

Decrease in global frequency of tropical cyclones (6-34%)

Increase in the frequency of the most intense cyclones

Increase in rainfall rate, 20% within 100 km of storm center

Knutson et. al, nature geoscience, 2010

Natural Variability (Teleconnections)Rainfall vs. El Nino & La NinaRainfall patterns

Lake OkeechobeeInflow

Tropical storm patterns

What is OLAM?

• Ocean Land Atmosphere Model

• New, full-physics non-hydrostaticEarth System Model based onRegional Atmospheric ModelingSystem (RAMS)

• Unstructured grid (triangular orhexagonal mesh)

• Local mesh refinement instead ofnesting: two-way seamlesscommunication betweenregional/mesoscale and globalportions of grid domain throughconservative advection and turbulenttransport

Florida - Main Observations

Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling

number of wet days during the dry season –POR

May precipitation throughout the state –POR and especially post-1950. May be linked to changes in start of the wet season.

Urban heat island effect – urban (and drained) areas Tave and number of dog days for wet

(warm) season especially post-1950 Decrease in DTR ( Tmin > Tmax) Annual maximum of Tave and Tmin for all

seasons in POR and especially post-1950

GEV parameters of annual maxima

Location Scale Shape

Duration = 6-hours

Duration = 24 hours

BiasTemperature

ChangeTemperature

BiasPrecipitation

ChangePrecipitation

Temperature

NARCCAP

Precipitation

NARCCAP

at http://rcpm.ucar.edu

Regional Climate Change Projections from Multi-Model Ensembles (Tebaldi et al., 2008)

A Bayesian approach

Reward models with respect to BIAS (w.r.t. current climate) and CONVERGENCE (consensus on future projections)

23 Models, SRES scenarios A2(high), A1B (midrange), B1(low)

Posterior distribution of precipitation & temperature for each season & future decades

MODELLikelihood:Observed: X0 ~ N[μ, −λ0

-1]GCM (current): Xi ~ N[μ, −λi

-1]GCM(future): Yi ~ N[ν, −(θλi)-1]Priors:μ, ν ~ U(-∞,+ ∞ )λi ~ Γ (a,b), θi ~ Γ (c,d)

hydrologic cycle – will it remain stationary? · 2012-08-16 · hydrologic & environmental...

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