humboldt-universität zu berlin “crisis of democracy? what crisis?” wolfgang merkel cologne may...
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Content
1.Democracy as a contested concept2.Crisis as an undefined concept3.Crisis theories of democracy4.3 Research strategies: testing the „concept“? Experts Demos Analyses5.Crisis? What Crisis?
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Three Concepts of Democracy
Minimalists: Schumpeter, Dahl, Przeworski
Mid-Range: Freedom House, Diamond, Habermas(Merkel: Embedded democracy), (Pateman, Barber:
Restriction to input) Maximalists: Heller, Meyer, Latin American democratic
theory: > social democracy
Input and Output Hypothesis: The more minimalist, the less crisis and vice versa Choice of concept determines the answer to the crisis question Minimalist concepts are analytically inappropriate for the crisis
question
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„Embedded Democracy“ – internal and external challenges
A
B
E
C
D
Electoral Reg
Civil Rights Political Rights(de jure; in use)
Horizontal Accountability
Effective Power to Govern
Money?PR campaigns?Inequality?
Participation: selective?Representation: gap?Parties: decline?
Freedom: challenged?Fairness: obsolete?Minorities: protected?
Decline of parliaments?Dominance of the Executive? Loss of ext & int Souvereignty?
Illegitimate decision makers?
Heterogeneity
Europeanization Globalisation
Socio-economic
Inequality
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Two Meanings of Crisis I1. Acute crisis: Death or life?
Crossroad Fundamental decisions/medicine are required Existential threat
Examples:Italy 1920-1922Weimar 1930-1933Spain 1933-1936/9Greece 1965-67Chile 1970-1973
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Two Meanings of Crisis II
2. Latent crisis: Slow decline, erosion
Unfulfilled normative promises of democracy Erosion: Worsening of quality, chronic diseases Diminished subtype: Defective, illiberal, exclusive democracies,
but no collapse/regime transition Threshold question not resolved!
Hypotheses:
If Type I, the smaller the crisis sample (clearer defined)
If Type II, the bigger the crisis sample (and less defined)
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What should Crisis Theories explain?
Defining properties of a CrisisNecessary and sufficient conditionsThreshold questionCauses and effectsAn analytical concept embedded in theory
has to cover Pt. 1-3 and allow for analyses of Pt. 4
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Habermas (1973): Legitmation Crisis
Economic crisis
-contradict.
-ec.growth
- bus.cycles
Rationality crisis
-administrat.-political system
--Welfare State
Legitimation crisis
- Mass withdrawal of support from
“formal democracy”
Motivational crisis
Support to the normative order of
democr. and to work ethic is
withering away
Economic
steering problem
Inability
to cope
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Trilateral Commission (1975): The Overload Hypothesis
1. Delegitimation of Authority: Pursuit of equality and individualism led to a delegitimation of authority, a loss of trust in leadership and a weakening of social bonds.
2. Overloading of Government: Expansion of participation, increasing expectations: overload on government.
3. Disaggregation of Interests: Intensified political competition > disaggregation of interests > decline and fragmentation of political parties.
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Crouch (2004): Postdemocracy
– Decline of pol. participation- Imbalance between capital and labour– Erosion of the welfare state– Disempowering the state (privatization,
outsourcing..) – Competent private firms – incompetent
governments– Commodification of social relations– Negative freedom prevail over positive freedomDemocratic moment in the past as standard for
comparison
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What do crises theories don`t tell us:A Critique
Critique: No clear concept of democracy Democracy as an institutional black box (var of dem) No clear definitions of crisis properties No definition of thresholds How to deal with simultaneuous pos & neg
developments? Trend to monocausality: although causal hypotheses
are the strongest part
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Three Levels of Analysis
1.What do the people think: Legitimacy Beliefs (Surveys)
2.What do the experts think: Normative standards (Indices)
3.How are the democratic functions fulfilled within the 5 partial regimes: (partial analyses)
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Quality of Democracy in 30 „best democracies“ (1990-2012)
Own figure based on Democracy Barometer
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5 Partial Regime as Units of Analysis Electoral Regime: Who votes?
Decline; increase of social selectivity Political Rights: Who is represented?
inequal substantial representation (class); better representation of minorities; better descriptive representation of women.
Civil Rights: Who is protected?better protection of minority rights; trade off between freedom rights and security needs
Horizontal Accountability: Who controls?Parliaments of loser of globalization & Europianization
Power to Govern: Who governs?Loss of state power to markets; loss of nat. govt to supranat. Org, & regimes
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Decline of Catch-all Parties in Western Europe, 1958-2012
Note: The figure shows yearly country-means for the concentration of votes on catch-all parties in Western Europe. The time-series starting in 1958 does not include Greece, Portugal, and Spain. The time-series starting in 1977, however, does. Luxembourg and Malta are excluded.Source: Database „Elections, Parties, Governments“ of the Research Unit „Democracy“ at the Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB), 21.06.2012; my figure.
40
45
50
55
60
65
70M
ean
of A
ggre
gat
ed
Vo
te S
har
e
since 1958 since 1977
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RESULTS
In regimes 1-3: pos & neg results Regimes 4 & 5: mostly negative trends
Analytical Problem: how do we discount these different pos & neg trends?
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Conclusion I
1. Experts & Indices: No crisis of democracy
2. Demos-Surveys: No crisis of dem, but of certain institutions
3. Threshold question theoretically not solved: surveys and indices do not signal a beginning of crisis
4. Dissimultaneity: decline & improvement of dem. institutions (women, minorities vs class)
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CONCLUSION 2
However: Shifting axes of legitimacy From majorit. Institutions to non-majorit. Institutions:
permissive consensus of the people Partcipation and parliaments in decline Strong trend towards a 50% Demos:oligarchisation „People do not bother about decline of parliaments „The citizens“less critical than the „critical citizens
hypothesis“ assumes Schloars: Erosion of Repr. Dem! People: Good so!
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Conclusion 3Can dem innovations help?
Referenda? Deliberative Democracy? Digital Democracy? More Europe and supranational Governance?
Perspective: Two-Third-Democracy
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