humboldt-universität zu berlin “crisis of democracy? what crisis?” wolfgang merkel cologne may...

Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin

“Crisis of Democracy?What Crisis?”

Wolfgang MerkelCologneMay 18 2015


Content

1.Democracy as a contested concept2.Crisis as an undefined concept3.Crisis theories of democracy4.3 Research strategies: testing the „concept“? Experts Demos Analyses5.Crisis? What Crisis?


3

Three Concepts of Democracy

Minimalists: Schumpeter, Dahl, Przeworski

Mid-Range: Freedom House, Diamond, Habermas(Merkel: Embedded democracy), (Pateman, Barber:

Restriction to input) Maximalists: Heller, Meyer, Latin American democratic

theory: > social democracy

Input and Output Hypothesis: The more minimalist, the less crisis and vice versa Choice of concept determines the answer to the crisis question Minimalist concepts are analytically inappropriate for the crisis

question


„Embedded Democracy“ – internal and external challenges

A

B

E

C

D

Electoral Reg

Civil Rights Political Rights(de jure; in use)

Horizontal Accountability

Effective Power to Govern

Money?PR campaigns?Inequality?

Participation: selective?Representation: gap?Parties: decline?

Freedom: challenged?Fairness: obsolete?Minorities: protected?

Decline of parliaments?Dominance of the Executive? Loss of ext & int Souvereignty?

Illegitimate decision makers?

Heterogeneity

Europeanization Globalisation

Socio-economic

Inequality


5

Two Meanings of Crisis I1. Acute crisis: Death or life?

Crossroad Fundamental decisions/medicine are required Existential threat

Examples:Italy 1920-1922Weimar 1930-1933Spain 1933-1936/9Greece 1965-67Chile 1970-1973


Two Meanings of Crisis II

2. Latent crisis: Slow decline, erosion

Unfulfilled normative promises of democracy Erosion: Worsening of quality, chronic diseases Diminished subtype: Defective, illiberal, exclusive democracies,

but no collapse/regime transition Threshold question not resolved!

Hypotheses:

If Type I, the smaller the crisis sample (clearer defined)

If Type II, the bigger the crisis sample (and less defined)


What should Crisis Theories explain?

Defining properties of a CrisisNecessary and sufficient conditionsThreshold questionCauses and effectsAn analytical concept embedded in theory

has to cover Pt. 1-3 and allow for analyses of Pt. 4


Habermas (1973): Legitmation Crisis

Economic crisis

-contradict.

-ec.growth

- bus.cycles

Rationality crisis

-administrat.-political system

--Welfare State

Legitimation crisis

- Mass withdrawal of support from

“formal democracy”

Motivational crisis

Support to the normative order of

democr. and to work ethic is

withering away

Economic

steering problem

Inability

to cope


Trilateral Commission (1975): The Overload Hypothesis

1. Delegitimation of Authority: Pursuit of equality and individualism led to a delegitimation of authority, a loss of trust in leadership and a weakening of social bonds.

2. Overloading of Government: Expansion of participation, increasing expectations: overload on government.

3. Disaggregation of Interests: Intensified political competition > disaggregation of interests > decline and fragmentation of political parties.


Crouch (2004): Postdemocracy

– Decline of pol. participation- Imbalance between capital and labour– Erosion of the welfare state– Disempowering the state (privatization,

outsourcing..) – Competent private firms – incompetent

governments– Commodification of social relations– Negative freedom prevail over positive freedomDemocratic moment in the past as standard for

comparison


11

What do crises theories don`t tell us:A Critique

Critique: No clear concept of democracy Democracy as an institutional black box (var of dem) No clear definitions of crisis properties No definition of thresholds How to deal with simultaneuous pos & neg

developments? Trend to monocausality: although causal hypotheses

are the strongest part


Three Levels of Analysis

1.What do the people think: Legitimacy Beliefs (Surveys)

2.What do the experts think: Normative standards (Indices)

3.How are the democratic functions fulfilled within the 5 partial regimes: (partial analyses)


13


14


Quality of Democracy in 30 „best democracies“ (1990-2012)

Own figure based on Democracy Barometer


5 Partial Regime as Units of Analysis Electoral Regime: Who votes?

Decline; increase of social selectivity Political Rights: Who is represented?

inequal substantial representation (class); better representation of minorities; better descriptive representation of women.

Civil Rights: Who is protected?better protection of minority rights; trade off between freedom rights and security needs

Horizontal Accountability: Who controls?Parliaments of loser of globalization & Europianization

Power to Govern: Who governs?Loss of state power to markets; loss of nat. govt to supranat. Org, & regimes


19

Decline of Catch-all Parties in Western Europe, 1958-2012

Note: The figure shows yearly country-means for the concentration of votes on catch-all parties in Western Europe. The time-series starting in 1958 does not include Greece, Portugal, and Spain. The time-series starting in 1977, however, does. Luxembourg and Malta are excluded.Source: Database „Elections, Parties, Governments“ of the Research Unit „Democracy“ at the Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB), 21.06.2012; my figure.

40

45

50

55

60

65

70M

ean

of A

ggre

gat

ed

Vo

te S

har

e

since 1958 since 1977


RESULTS

In regimes 1-3: pos & neg results Regimes 4 & 5: mostly negative trends

Analytical Problem: how do we discount these different pos & neg trends?


Conclusion I

1. Experts & Indices: No crisis of democracy

2. Demos-Surveys: No crisis of dem, but of certain institutions

3. Threshold question theoretically not solved: surveys and indices do not signal a beginning of crisis

4. Dissimultaneity: decline & improvement of dem. institutions (women, minorities vs class)


CONCLUSION 2

However: Shifting axes of legitimacy From majorit. Institutions to non-majorit. Institutions:

permissive consensus of the people Partcipation and parliaments in decline Strong trend towards a 50% Demos:oligarchisation „People do not bother about decline of parliaments „The citizens“less critical than the „critical citizens

hypothesis“ assumes Schloars: Erosion of Repr. Dem! People: Good so!


Conclusion 3Can dem innovations help?

Referenda? Deliberative Democracy? Digital Democracy? More Europe and supranational Governance?

Perspective: Two-Third-Democracy

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Appendix

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Quality of Democracy - Decline?

Own figure based on Democracy Barometer

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