horizonscans+++

Joining Horizon ScansJoining Horizon Scans

Thinking, debating and shaping the Future

Victor van RijTowards Knowledge Democracy

25-27 August, 2009, Leiden

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Foresight and Horizon scanningForesight and Horizon scanning

Brief explanation horizon scanning

Joint Horizon scan project (ERA Net For society)

Theory on Horizon scanning

Relation of Horizon scanning with Knowledge Democracy, Problems , Ideas for solutions

Some remarks about foresight and horizon scanning

Foresight is not about forecasting nor fortune telling. Some issues can be predicted (and will happen), others can be foreseen (and may happen) , others we cannot foresee.

If we foresee things that may happen we can just allow these to happen or not to happen (let history take its course) and deal with the consequences, but we might also think of ways (actions, strategies policies) to accelerate things to happen or to slow them down alter them or to prevent them to happen at all.

Already, by debating things that will happen in combination with things that may happen we may already have changed the way of history, because actors involved in a foresight process will think and probably act differently (than without the foresight)

So foresight is about shaping and creating future more to our willand to activate and align people and to coordinate there actions

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Horizon scanning and Foresight

Instruments to shape the future to (common) desires, needs after participative thinking and debating

Horizon scanning

Systematic Search for Issues with Potential high (Future) Impact on what we consider to be important

Issues are statements about the future, based on outcomes of research, trend analysis, scenario studies, weak or faint signal analysis but also on our imagination

Issues are therefore based on a mix of scientific knowledge and tacit knowledge including our imagination

Horizon scanningHorizon scanning

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Horizon scanning methods, outcomes

Methods

- Literature, website & blog surveys, interviews, brainstorms, expert and stakeholder meetings, essays

Outcomes

-Listings and descriptions of issues with impact on our future – websites publications

-Analysis of interaction of issues and their combined impact (clusters of issues (NE) or concentrated to test departmental strategies on resilience (UK)) recommendations (NE)

- Process outcomes (learning effects participants etc)

Horizon scanningHorizon scanning

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Foresight and Horizon scanningForesight and Horizon scanning

Joint Horizon scan project (ERA Net For society)

Joint Horizon scanJoint Horizon scan

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Joint Horizon scanJoint Horizon scan

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Joint Horizon scan / comparisonJoint Horizon scan / comparison

Three national Horizon scans :

UK: Horizon Scanning Centre GOS

NE : Netherlands Horizon Scan COS / Ministry of Education, Culture and Science

DK : Danish Horizon Scan / OECD-Danish Agency for Science Technology and Innovation (DASTI)

Joint Horizon scanJoint Horizon scan

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Foresight and Horizon scanningForesight and Horizon scanning

Joint Horizon scanJoint Horizon scan

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ComparisonComparison

Main aims of the National Horizon Scans

Feeding the (evidence) base of policies(UK)

Feeding the foresight agenda (NE), foster the future thinking culture of policymakers (UK)

Feeding the knowledge and research agenda (DK , NE)

(implicit targets more resilient policies, sustainable solutions)

Joint Horizon scanJoint Horizon scan

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Joint Horizon Scan comparisonJoint Horizon Scan comparison

Distribution of the selected issues over the main domains

Category United Kingdom Denmark Netherlands total

Society 18,5 22,4 7,5 15,6

Science & technology 16,4 8,8 15,1 13,7

Economy/Finance 21,2 21,6 18,9 20,5

Environment/Ecology 13,7 15,2 23,3 17,7

Politics/Public services 30,1 32,0 35,2 32,6

total number of issues 146 125 159 430

Joint Horizon scanJoint Horizon scan

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ComparisonComparison

Different aims , slightly different methods , potential multi functionality of the instrument

Wide scopes (all STEEP areas are covered – although different distribution of issues) , opening up new ideas on relations between issues

Large overlap of issues, level of granulation comparable, attempts to characterise the issues on impact, probability etc

Embedded (UK, NE?, DK??)

Joint Horizon scanJoint Horizon scan

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Common problemsCommon problems

How to be effective? Client orientation?

Who selects and prioritises the issues (values, criteria, value conflicts) – connections to other scans (on different levels, on different policy domains, worldwide) ?

Facts, proven facts and desires (scientific quality) ?

Complexity (non linearity, issue interaction, unknown effects of interference, conflicting values)

The unknowns , weak signals, evaluation of the method

Joint Horizon scanJoint Horizon scan

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Foresight and Horizon scanningForesight and Horizon scanning

Theory on Horizon scanning

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Issue dimensions

IMPACT : Issues that may have great or less great impact on what we see as important (seize of impact)

PROBABILITY & PLAUSIBILITY : Issues that are certain or less certain but still plausible (probability and plausibility)

DESIRABILITY : Issues that are desirable or not desirable for society (desirability, common or opposed values)

CHANGEABILITY : Issues that are not changeable or changeable by human action (changeability)

TIME : moment of observation , interaction, dynamics

Some theorySome theory

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+ Issues with Potential high Impact on what we consider to be important

certainty

desirability

changeability

Climate Change

Nuclear War

NBIC convergence

The Internet

Migration

Ageing society

Some theorySome theory

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Desires/Values

1. Biological dimension : Quality of life, Health, Ecological Quality

2. Social dimension : Social Quality

3. Economic financial dimension: Economic Quality

4. Governmental dimension : Juridical and Democratic Quality

5. Cultural, ethical and intellectual dimension : Cultural, ethical and intellectual Quality

6. Self realization of (future) citizens, freedom of individuals and of religious and cultural expression

7. Social cohesion, Good neighborhood dimension : International relationship Quality

Some theorySome theory

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Example (2005)Climate change (theory, trends, signals)

Plausibility highEstimated Impact high3vDesirability lowIssue Changeable? LimitedImpact changeable? Perhaps

Some theorySome theory

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certainty

changeability

desirability

Climate Change Adaptation

Mitigation

Some theorySome theory

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Foresight and Horizon scanningForesight and Horizon scanning

Relation of Horizon scanning with Knowledge Democracy, Problems , Ideas for solutions

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Importance for knowledge democracy

Horizon/trend scans are performed more and more on many placesSometimes through participative processes but also by small expert groups

Although the importance for public governance is neglected by many, there is a silent influence on the agenda setting (what are the important issues)

Good horizon scanning needs democratic/participative processes

A knowledge democracy may be served by good horizon scanning processes which could be the centre point of good governance on many governance levels

Relation Knowledge DemocracyRelation Knowledge Democracy

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1. Meaning of HS for democracy

Feeding the Public debate for agenda setting and scoping of further deliberation, relating this to the research agenda

Input for policy / decision makers to develop resilient and sustainable policies

But:

How to reach the busy decision makers ?

How to overcome the dilemma of “present day agenda” and “simple incidents” versus “ long term strategy on complex sets of issues”

How do we get attention and time of the decision makers (time for the future) ,

Relation Knowledge DemocracyRelation Knowledge Democracy

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2. Meaning of democracy for good HS

Identification of issues: What do we see as important (what are the values that we take into account to select issues)

Estimations of plausibility and of impact of an issue (collective responsability)

Changeability : The possibility and willingness to change the issues or to react upon the supposed impact by deliberate human action

Relation Knowledge DemocracyRelation Knowledge Democracy

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Solutions for 1.

Classical Solutions

Involvement of HL (or key) decision makers in the process (EC Far horizon)

“client oriented “ foresight (only foresight on demand of decision makers)

Relation Knowledge DemocracyRelation Knowledge Democracy

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Solutions for 1.

Classical Solutions

Or do we need

other institutional arrangements

considering the fact that “Good governance requires foreseeing” we should review or governmental institutions on their foreseeing capacity:

“Chamber for incidental policy” and a “Chamber for long term policy” ?

Remove barriers for trans disciplinary research, stimulate this where necessary

Relation Knowledge DemocracyRelation Knowledge Democracy

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Solutions for 2.

Participative processes to set the criteria for identification and priority setting of Issues (CIVICS)

Participative processes to feed in issues (wiki’s, blogs) (SESTI)

Involvement of HL decision makers in the process (champions)

Relation Knowledge DemocracyRelation Knowledge Democracy