healthy aging summit - world population aging
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World Population Aging
Eileen M.Crimmins
AARP Professor of Gerontology
University of Southern California
Keiro Senior HealthCare’s Healthy Aging Summit
April 12, 2011
Young vs. Old – trends in global ageing
Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. World Population
Prospects. The 2004 Revision. New York: United Nations, 2005.
World Trends in the Old and the Young
Projected Increases in Global Population by Age
ge
Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. World Population
Prospects. The 2004 Revision. New York: United Nations, 2005.
The World’s 15 Oldest Countries
12.4
16.0
16.0
16.4
16.4
16.5
16.7
16.9
17.0
17.1
17.2
17.3
17.8
18.6
19.5
19.5
United States
Finland
United Kingdom
France
Croatia
Latvia
Estonia
Spain
Portugal
Belgium
Bulgaria
Sweden
Greece
Germany
Italy
Japan
Source: UN 2004
Percent Aged 65 and over
Population Aging Represents the Greatest
Triumph of Science in the 20th Century
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
1950
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
Year
Ag
e
Males Females
Trends in Life Expectancy at Birth in Japan 1950-2008
Trend in Total Fertility Rate in
Japan: 1950-2007
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
1989
29.0
30.0
31.0
32.0
33.0
34.0
35.0
United
States
United
Kingdom
Germany Norway Sweden Canada Spain France Italy Japan
e5
0
Life Expectancy at Age 50 in 2006
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
e5
0 (
in y
ears
)
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
JPN
FRA
ESP
AUS
ITA
CAN
GBR
USA
NLD
DNK
Trends in Life Expectancy at Age 50, Females
Prevalence of Heart Disease: Age 65+
Males Females
Prevalence of Diabetes: Age 65+
0
5
10
15
20
25
%
0
5
10
15
20
25
%
Males Females
Chapter 3: Are International Differences in Health Similar to
International Differences in Life Expectancy? Eileen M.
Crimmins, et al.
Prevalence of Stroke: Age 65+
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
%
Males Females
Source: GLOBOCAN 2002 Database; htpp://www-dep.iarc.fr/
Incidence
Mortality
Prostate Cancer
Incidence and Mortality Rates, 2002
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Ra
te p
er
10
0,0
00
Source: GLOBOCAN 2002 Database; htpp://www-dep.iarc.fr/
Incidence
Mortality
Breast Cancer
Incidence and Mortality Rates, 2002
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
U.S.
Denm
ark
France
Italy
Netherla
nds
SpainU.K
.
Japan
Canada
Australia
Ra
te p
er
10
0,0
00
Colorectal Cancer Incidence and Mortality Rates,
Males, 2002
Source: GLOBOCAN 2002 Database; http://www-dep.iarc.fr/ Age-standardized to world standard
Incidence
Mortality
0
10
20
30
40
50
Ra
te p
er
10
0,0
00
Prevalence of obesity (BMI > 30): Age 50+
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40Female
s
Estimated Probability of Being Obese at
Specific Ages for Specific Cohorts for Males
Source: Reynolds, S., Himes, C. Cohort differences in adult obesity in the United States:
1982 2002. J Aging Health 2007;19;844
Prevalence of measured high blood pressure
(in last few years) (>140/90mmHg): Males 65+
0
20
40
60
80
Perc
en
t
0
20
40
60
80
Pe
rce
nt
Measured High BP
(>140/90mmHg)
Measured High BP
(>140/90mmHg)
Or Using Medication
Use of Anti Hypertensive Drugs : Ages 50+
Use of Lipid Lowering Drugs: Age 50+
Lung Cancer Incidence Rates, 2002
Source: GLOBOCAN 2002 Database; http://www-dep.iarc.fr/ Age-standardized to world standard
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Rate
per
100,0
00
Males
Females
Gains to female life expectancy at age
50 from eliminating smoking
Percentage of adult population smoking daily, 2005
Percentage of females and males smoking daily, 2005
Alcohol consumption in litres per capita,
population 15 years and over, 2005
Other Differences Between the
US and Japan
Equality is greater in Japan – social differences are
not as great
Health Care Insurance is provided for all
Sum
• Aging has come about because of success
• Some countries may be better adapted to the new
world of plentiful food
• To some extent -Japan has “gotten away” with
smoking – but past behavior will have
consequences
• The US has poor health relative to other countries
and this needs to be a focus of policy
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