World Population Aging

Eileen M.Crimmins

AARP Professor of Gerontology

University of Southern California

Keiro Senior HealthCare’s Healthy Aging Summit

April 12, 2011

Young vs. Old – trends in global ageing

Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. World Population

Prospects. The 2004 Revision. New York: United Nations, 2005.

World Trends in the Old and the Young

Projected Increases in Global Population by Age

ge

Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. World Population

Prospects. The 2004 Revision. New York: United Nations, 2005.

The World’s 15 Oldest Countries

12.4

16.0

16.0

16.4

16.4

16.5

16.7

16.9

17.0

17.1

17.2

17.3

17.8

18.6

19.5

19.5

United States

Finland

United Kingdom

France

Croatia

Latvia

Estonia

Spain

Portugal

Belgium

Bulgaria

Sweden

Greece

Germany

Italy

Japan

Source: UN 2004

Percent Aged 65 and over

Population Aging Represents the Greatest

Triumph of Science in the 20th Century

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

1950

1954

1958

1962

1966

1970

1974

1978

1982

1986

1990

1994

1998

2002

2006

Year

Ag

e

Males Females

Trends in Life Expectancy at Birth in Japan 1950-2008

Trend in Total Fertility Rate in

Japan: 1950-2007

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

1989

29.0

30.0

31.0

32.0

33.0

34.0

35.0

United

States

United

Kingdom

Germany Norway Sweden Canada Spain France Italy Japan

e5

0

Life Expectancy at Age 50 in 2006

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

e5

0 (

in y

ears

)

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

JPN

FRA

ESP

AUS

ITA

CAN

GBR

USA

NLD

DNK

Trends in Life Expectancy at Age 50, Females

Prevalence of Heart Disease: Age 65+

Males Females

Prevalence of Diabetes: Age 65+

0

5

10

15

20

25

%

0

5

10

15

20

25

%

Males Females

Chapter 3: Are International Differences in Health Similar to

International Differences in Life Expectancy? Eileen M.

Crimmins, et al.

Prevalence of Stroke: Age 65+

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

%

Males Females

Source: GLOBOCAN 2002 Database; htpp://www-dep.iarc.fr/

Incidence

Mortality

Prostate Cancer

Incidence and Mortality Rates, 2002

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Ra

te p

er

10

0,0

00

Source: GLOBOCAN 2002 Database; htpp://www-dep.iarc.fr/

Incidence

Mortality

Breast Cancer

Incidence and Mortality Rates, 2002

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

U.S.

Denm

ark

France

Italy

Netherla

nds

SpainU.K

.

Japan

Canada

Australia

Ra

te p

er

10

0,0

00

Colorectal Cancer Incidence and Mortality Rates,

Males, 2002

Source: GLOBOCAN 2002 Database; http://www-dep.iarc.fr/ Age-standardized to world standard

Incidence

Mortality

0

10

20

30

40

50

Ra

te p

er

10

0,0

00

Prevalence of obesity (BMI > 30): Age 50+

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40Female

s

Estimated Probability of Being Obese at

Specific Ages for Specific Cohorts for Males

Source: Reynolds, S., Himes, C. Cohort differences in adult obesity in the United States:

1982 2002. J Aging Health 2007;19;844

Prevalence of measured high blood pressure

(in last few years) (>140/90mmHg): Males 65+

0

20

40

60

80

Perc

en

t

0

20

40

60

80

Pe

rce

nt

Measured High BP

(>140/90mmHg)

Measured High BP

(>140/90mmHg)

Or Using Medication

Use of Anti Hypertensive Drugs : Ages 50+

Use of Lipid Lowering Drugs: Age 50+

Lung Cancer Incidence Rates, 2002

Source: GLOBOCAN 2002 Database; http://www-dep.iarc.fr/ Age-standardized to world standard

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Rate

per

100,0

00

Males

Females

Gains to female life expectancy at age

50 from eliminating smoking

Percentage of adult population smoking daily, 2005

Percentage of females and males smoking daily, 2005

Alcohol consumption in litres per capita,

population 15 years and over, 2005

Other Differences Between the

US and Japan

Equality is greater in Japan – social differences are

not as great

Health Care Insurance is provided for all

Sum

• Aging has come about because of success

• Some countries may be better adapted to the new

world of plentiful food

• To some extent -Japan has “gotten away” with

smoking – but past behavior will have

consequences

• The US has poor health relative to other countries

and this needs to be a focus of policy