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AUSTRALIA IN THE ASIAN CENTURY
Gordon de Brouwer 27 November 2012
AUSTRALIA IN THE ASIAN CENTURY
Roadmap for the whole of Australia
National State Local Cities
People-‐to-‐ people
Government-‐to-‐ government
Business-‐to-‐ business
Migration Education Tourism Culture Entertainment
Trade Investment Value chains Research
AUSTRALIA IN THE ASIAN CENTURY
Broad consulta<on themes
• Improving Australia’s Asia-‐relevant capabiliHes – literacy is more than language learning
• People to people links – need for increased two way collaboraHon and
exchange • ImplicaHons of Asia’s rise
– strategic compeHHon / economic interdependence – economic trends – supply chains / investment
• Australia’s compeHHveness
AUSTRALIA IN THE ASIAN CENTURY
Asia’s economic rise
Note: The bubble area in Chart 1 reflects the size of GDP for Asia’s economies, adjusted for purchasing power parity in 2011 prices (Maddison 2010, IMF 2012c, The Conference Board 2012 and Treasury projections). See glossary for definition of Asia and description of projections.
AUSTRALIA IN THE ASIAN CENTURY
Chart A.1: Rising Asian income per person
Percentage of income per person in North America and Europe
Notes: GDP is adjusted for purchasing power parity (1990 prices). See glossary for definitions of North America and Europe. Sources: Maddison (2010) and The Conference Board (2012).
AUSTRALIA IN THE ASIAN CENTURY
Figure 2.1: Asia to become the centre of global economic activity
Note: At each point in time, the centre of world economic gravity was calculated by weighting the GDP for each civilisation or country and measuring its relative importance against the known world economic capacity at that point. The centre of economic gravity slowly shifted from East Asia to Europe, then more quickly to the Atlantic and in more recent decades it has shifted quickly back towards Asia. Source: McKinsey & Company (2012).
AUSTRALIA IN THE ASIAN CENTURY
Figure 2.2: Growing consumer markets of Asia
Note: ‘Middle class’ is defined as those households with daily expenditures of between US$10 and US$100 per person. The black border circles and orange border circles depict the size of the middle-class population in 2009 and 2030 respectively. Source: Kharas & Gertz (2010).
AUSTRALIA IN THE ASIAN CENTURY
Chart 1.2: Asia’s demographic dividend
Share of working-‐age population
Source: UN (2011b).
AUSTRALIA IN THE ASIAN CENTURY
Chart C.1: Demand for food will grow
Global demand by commodity Global food demand
Source: Linehan et al. (2012).
AUSTRALIA IN THE ASIAN CENTURY
Chart 3.9: Australia’s agricultural exports to Asia have risen
Value of Australian agricultural exports (nominal)
Source: ABARES (2011).
AUSTRALIA IN THE ASIAN CENTURY
Chart 3.7(a): Australia’s penetration into Asia’s resource markets
Imports of Australian iron ore
Per cent of domestic consumption Weight
Source: Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics.
AUSTRALIA IN THE ASIAN CENTURY
Chart 3.7(b): Australia’s penetration into Asia’s resource markets
Imports of Australian coking coal
Per cent of domestic consumption Weight
Source: Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics.
AUSTRALIA IN THE ASIAN CENTURY
Chart 4.7: Growth in international student enrolments in Australia
Note: VET stands for vocational education and training. ELICOS stands for English language intensive courses for overseas students. ‘Other’ includes non-award courses and enabling courses. Source: AEI (2012b).
AUSTRALIA IN THE ASIAN CENTURY
Figure 9.1: ScientiKic links between Australia and Asian nations
2002 2010
Sources: Thomson Reuters (2011a) and Scopus.
AUSTRALIA IN THE ASIAN CENTURY
The Asian century is an Australian opportunity. As the
global centre of gravity shi7s to our region, the
tyranny of distance is being replaced by the prospects
of proximity. Australia is located in the right place at
the right <me—in the Asian region in the Asian
century.
AUSTRALIA IN THE ASIAN CENTURY
Scope of White Paper
• Roadmap for the whole of Australia
• Comprehensive review of economic and strategic change to 2025
• DomesHc economic and social policies
• Australia’s external relaHons
AUSTRALIA IN THE ASIAN CENTURY
Five na<onal direc<ons
Productive and resilient economy
Build capability (Asia-literacy)
Business collaboration
Sustainable security
Deeper and broader relationships
AUSTRALIA IN THE ASIAN CENTURY
Twenty-‐five na<onal objec<ves for 2025
2012
Skills and education
Innovation system
Infrastructure
Communication infrastructure
Tax and transfers
2
3
4
5
Regulatory reform
Environmental sustainability
Macro and financial frameworks
School system
Asia literacy in schools
7
8
9
10
Asian languages
Universities
VET systems
Asia-capable leaders
Adaptable regions
11
12
13
14
15
Social Foundations
Asia-capable businesses
Economic integration with Asia
Agriculture and food
Sustainable security
16
17
18
19
20
2025
Human security
Effective diplomacy
Comprehensive relationships
People-to -people links
Cultural links
21
22
23
24
25
Australia will be a more prosperous and resilient naHon, fully part of the region and open to the world
AUSTRALIA IN THE ASIAN CENTURY
Metrics for success, by 2025
• Australia’s GDP per person in the world’s top 10
• World top 5 for most efficiently regulated
• World top 10 for our innovaHon system
• 10 Australian universiHes in the world’s top 100
• School system in world’s top five
• Students have conHnuous access to priority Asian languages
• Studies of Asia core part of Australian school curriculum
AUSTRALIA IN THE ASIAN CENTURY
Metrics for success, by 2025
• Australia’s trade with Asia will be at least one-‐third of GDP
• Our diplomaHc network with a larger footprint across Asia
• One-‐third of board members of Australia’s top companies
and Commonwealth bodies deeply Asia literate
• One-‐third of senior APS leadership deeply Asia literate
AUSTRALIA IN THE ASIAN CENTURY
Chart 9.1: DFAT staff posted overseas
Note: As of June 2012. Multilateral refers to staff accredited to international organisations. Source: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.
AUSTRALIA IN THE ASIAN CENTURY
Chart 9.2: Diplomatic posts in Asia
Note: Compiled using data as of July 2012 from relevant foreign ministries websites. Asia refers to Bangladesh, Bhutan, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Timor-Leste, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, Malaysia, Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. Source: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.
AUSTRALIA IN THE ASIAN CENTURY
QuesHons and discussion
AUSTRALIA IN THE ASIAN CENTURY
Press headlines included
• Region's seal of approval for our Asian Century
• Clinton applauds Gillard's Asian Century white paper
• Asian Century overview ‘lacks detail’
• Li[ the standard of debate about China
AUSTRALIA IN THE ASIAN CENTURY
Web traffic
AUSTRALIA IN THE ASIAN CENTURY
Chart 1.3: Average years of formal schooling
Population aged 15 and above
Source: Barro & Lee (2010).
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