wfs conference adam gordon pdf
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Adam Gordon on Quality Industry ForesightTRANSCRIPT
Generating Quality Industry & Policy Foresight for Emerging Markets
Adam Gordon
1. Quality in foresight, a half-dozen thoughts
2. Emerging markets, SA 2030
“BeforemanreachesthemoonyourmailwillbedeliveredwithinhoursfromNewYorktoAustraliabyguidedmissiles.Westandonthethresholdofrocketmail”‐‐ArthurSummerfield,U.S.PostmasterGeneral,1959
Forecast failure
Housing market 2004-2013
“RobustdemandwillrequireproducLonof2millionnewhousingunitsayear.
“ThenaLonalhomeownershipratewillexceed70percentby2013.
“HomepriceappreciaLonwillaverage5%ayear2004‐2013.
“MortgageoriginaLonsareprojectedtoaveragenearly$3trillionperyear.”
TheNextDecadeforHousingandMortgageFinance(2004‐2013)HomeownershipAlliance:www.homeownership.comReportavailableatwww.freddiemac.com/news/pdf/
The cost of poor foresight:
Poor decisions: business, economy, public policy environment, defense, etc.
A
B
C
?
1. Lowuncertainty.Clearviewofthefuture.Dependableoutcome
2. Limitedsetofpossiblefutureoutcomes,oneofwhichwilloccur
3. Outcomesindeterminate,butboundedinarange
4. Alimitlessrangeofpossibleoutcomes.
21
3 4
HUGHCOURTNEYETAl;2020FORESIGHT,HBSPRESS,2001
‘Levels’viewoffutureuncertainty
Chapter 1. Forecast Intentions Chapter 2. Quality of Information Chapter 3. Bias Traps Chapter 4. Zeitgeist & Perception Chapter 5. User Utility Chapter 6. A DEFT View of Trends Chapter 7. Limits of Quantitative Forecasting Chapter 8. A Systems Perspective Chapter 9. Anticipating Alternative Outcomes Chapter 10. Case Studies Chapter 11. Quality in Foresight ‘Cheat Sheet’
1.Thelimitsofsectorexperts
Chapter3
‘Techpushvs.Consumerpull’
Chapter5
2.Customeriskingofthefuture
3.LimitsoftrendextrapolaYon:
‘
underesLmate
overesLmate
Chapter6
Driver TrendOutcome1Outcome2Outcome3
Driver
Driver FricYon
Turners&
Blockers
Enablers
4.Extrapolatethetrend,disbelievetheoutcome
5.LimitsofquantforecasYng:Theturkeyproblem
Chapter7
TALEB:THEFOURTHQUADRANT:AMAPOFTHELIMITSOFSTATISTICS[Edge,2008]
“Historydoesn’twalk,itjumps.”
GameChangers(wildcards,blackswans)
‘Predictable’environment,steadyevoluLonfromthepresent:
InformaLonrich
Notpronetotechupheavals Stableregulatoryenvironment
Wellestablishedmarkets
Stableplayers.Highbarriers Consistentdemand
Nogreatsocialpressure
‘WellBehaved’vs.‘BadlyBehaved’change
UncertaintechevoluLon Uncertaindemandfornewproducts&services
UncertainevoluLonoflegislaLveenvironment
Unstablemacro‐economiccondiLons:inflaLon,interestrates,currency
Shihingsocialvalues,mores,preferences,orientaLons
NosteadyevoluLon
‘
ANALYSIS
PointpredicYon
Scenarios
Chapter9
Exploring the cone of plausible uncertainty
present
?
AdamGordon
Atestbedfordecision‐makers:Stress‐tesYngdecisions
TheSixthSense
VdHEIJDENETAl;THESIXTHSENSE,WILEY,2002
Notascenarioset
6.Thelimitsoffuture‐advocacy
AdapLvevsVisionaryforesight(Futurealigningvs.Futureinfluencing)
MetLife,Aids2025Arup,EcoresortsTanzania2025
ImplicaYonsforemergingmarkets,viewsofSA2030
1. Expectbadly‐behavedchange
2. PracLcequalityinforesight.Nohead‐in‐the‐sand,butseverelimitsonpredicLon(incl.limitsofexperts)
3. Respectconsumers/adopters,theydeterminethefuture.
4. DisrespecttrendextrapolaLon.ApplyDEFT
5. Respectlimitsofquantmodelling.Don’tbetheturkey
6. Knowwhenwecaninfluencevs.whenwemustadapt.
