global issues project water issues expert roundtable water fore sight david harries, phd, p eng...

Global Issues ProjectGlobal Issues ProjectWater Issues Expert RoundtableWater Issues Expert Roundtable

WATER WATER FOREFOREsightsightDavid Harries, PhD, P EngDavid Harries, PhD, P Eng

Royal Military College Royal Military College

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Foresight CanadaForesight Canada

OutlineOutline

• Water

• Futures

• Foresight

• Water Foresight

• Water Facts

WATERWATER

• Security

• Safety

• Sufficiency …So many

• Shares challenging factors

• Science with complex relationships

• Substitutes

• Settings

WATER SECURITYWATER SECURITY

Security of source

systems

infrastructure

access

people

funding

WATER SCIENCEWATER SCIENCE

Science (and technology)

for Production >>>

for Performance >>>

for Preservation >>>

WATER SETTINGSWATER SETTINGS

Water in changing

- Climates

- Seasons

- Politics

- Demands

- ……

FUTURESFUTURES

• 1988 (-20) !

• 2008 (now) !

• 2028 (+20) ?

• Predictions

• ‘Accidents’

19881988

USSR, Cold War, Berlin Wall

‘search engines’ ?

‘personal’ computers ?

Magnetic resonance?

Global warming ?

‘brick’ phones

Human Genome project?

‘Nano-’ ? ‘Cyber- ?

Oil at US $10-20 per barrel

20082008

‘The world is getting better and better, worse and worse, faster and faster’.

The problem with life is there are no rehearsals; life is live.

•Heavier than air flying machines are impossible - Lord Kelvin, President Royal Society 1882

•The horse is here to stay, the automobile is a novelty - Bank Manager to Henry Ford 1908

•There is no likelihood man can ever tap the power of the atom - Robert Milliken, Nobel Prize in Physics 1923

•Who the hell wants to hear actors talk? - Henry Warner, Film Producer 1927

•There is a world market for about five computers - Thomas Watson IBM 1943

•We don’t like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out - President Decca Records, rejecting the Beatles 1962

GREAT PREDICTIONS

““ACCIDENTS” - ACCIDENTS” - SerendipitySerendipity

Viagra

ATMs

Frisbee

Gelatin

Microwave

Post-it

Slinky

Superglue

FORESIGHTFORESIGHT

• What it is– Definition, description and elements

• What it offers

• Why it is needed

• A way it is done

FORESIGHT IS…FORESIGHT IS…• Definition

- process and ability to prepare better, sooner for the (uncertain) future

• Description- process and ability to anticipate; to create and maintain a high-quality, coherent and functional forward view..

• ‘Elements’ - ~ three dozen; ~ one dozen key ones

Foresight isForesight is

NOT

‘futures studies’;

not in a/the future

20282028

?

FORESIGHT OFFERS…FORESIGHT OFFERS…HELP-examining developments out 5-25 years-understanding ranges of factors and drivers-accommodating risk, diversity-anticipating multiple plausible futures-highlighting emerging opportunities, threats-designing rehearsals-creating transition strategies for preferred

outcomes

FORESIGHT IS NEEDED BECAUSE…FORESIGHT IS NEEDED BECAUSE……assumptions, biases, organizational

structures, the rewards paradigm, and the urgency of the present ‘fog’ the fact that the future WILL NOT be what, today, we prefer it will be.

…S.W.O.T. in 2008 WILL NOT be S.W.O.T in 2028

AA FORESIGHT PROCESS FORESIGHT PROCESS

1.Define project topic2. Review current situation3. Identify key lenses4. Answer challenge questions5. Identify change drivers6. Select critical drivers7. Design scenarios8. Populate each scenario9. Back-cast to today10. Synthesize and recommend (action)

a Foresight process for WATERa Foresight process for WATERDefine project topic safe waterReview current situation <this workshop>Identify key lenses securityAnswer challenge questions trends?Identify change drivers climateSelect critical drivers technologyDesign scenarios not 3, not too

manyPopulate each scenario write the 2028

storyBack-cast to today 2028> ?? > 2008Synthesize and recommend action now

WATER FORESIGHTWATER FORESIGHT

Water issues

- Now

- 2028?

Water Competence

- Now?

- 2028?

2028 Water Scenarios

WATER ISSUESWATER ISSUES

• Now ! • 2028 ?SecuritySafetySufficiency SharesScienceSubstitutesSettings

The same list?

The same order of importance/magnitude?

The same relationships?

WHAT DO WE PLAN FOR, AND, THEREFOREWHAT DO WE HAVE TO BE COMPETENT AT IN 2028?

WATER COMPETENCEWATER COMPETENCE

• Now ? • 2028 ?????

IN TERMS OFWATER ISSUES,DO WE KNOW WHAT WE ARE COMPETENT IN TODAY?

DO WE KNOW THE COMPETENCES WE HAVE NOW THAT WE ‘SHOULD’ BUILD ON, AND THOSE WE ‘CAN’ LET GO?

WHAT STRENGTHS WILL WE NEED TO COMPETENTLY DEAL WITH THE THREATS TO AND EXPLOIT THE OPPORTUNITIES FOR WATER IN 2028 ?… AND WHAT WEAKNESSES MUST WE AVOID ?

2028 WATER SCENARIOS2028 WATER SCENARIOS• Water Wars

• UCC

• Pipeliners

• Bottle Borders

• OWEC

• Leisure Caps

• PWGSC

• Sovereign Waters

• Happy Humanity

WATER FACTSWATER FACTSWater is today a strategic material in every sense

of that term. It is impossible to imagine it being less so in 2028.

Some of each of all the water scenarios will have happened by, be happening in, or be about to happen in 2028.

We can neither predict which or when ‘some’ will happen, nor the relationships and consequences of them, in 2028 or thereafter.

Water Foresight FactsWater Foresight Facts

Foresight on water is a process that, done well, offers:- a means to focus on – to explore - the most

important plausible water scenarios; the worst case one and the best case one and those between

- support for development of options for the future- a foundation for more confident, better decisions

(and not) to shape water realities future.