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The Challenge of Deforestation and Forest Degradation in the context of Climate Change,
Development and Biodiversity Law
GLOBAL ISSUES – DEFORESTATION
Brussels, 26-27 May 2014
Sten Nilsson CEO, Forest Sector
Insights AB
Taxes
Fires
Poverty
Policies
Cultures
Subsidies
Corruption Economics
Plantations Inequalities
Urbanization Technologies
Demography
Property rights
Transmigration
Climate change
Landuse change Landuse change
Wood consumption Road development
Foreign investments International agendas
DRIVERS OF DEFORESTATION
PRIMARY DRIVERS
H
o
w
?
W
h
o
?
W
h
y
?
SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
FRAMEWORK
• Deforestation is a result of the complex interactions of many different drivers at the local level
• To come up with sustainable policies on deforestation, a broad societal approach is needed and not just forestry measures
• Deforestation should be put into a socio-economic development framework
• ‘For the sake of development’ – governments, industry
AGGREGATED DRIVERS OF TROPICAL
(and SUBTROPICAL) GLOBAL
DEFORESTATION (1990-2008) – 1
Total Agriculture Expansion: 83-85% (Gibbs et al., 2010;
Hosunuma et al., 2012); Kissinger et al. 2012)
Commercial agriculture: 53-56% (Hosunuma et
al., 2012); Kissinger et al., 2012; and EC, 2013)
Crops: 31% - Pastures: 26% (EC, 2013)
Subsistence agriculture: 31% (Hosunuma et a.,
2012; and Kissinger et al., 2012)
Intact forests: 55%; Disturbed forest: 28% (Gibbs et al., 2010)
AGRICULTURE
AGGREGATED DRIVERS OF TROPICAL
(and SUBTROPICAL) GLOBAL
DEFORESTATION (1990-2008) – 2
Infrastructure/Built up: 4-11% (Hosunuma et al, 2012;
Kissinger et al. 2012; and EC, 2013)
OTHER SECTORS
Natural hazards: 13% (EC, 2013)
Mining: 5% (Hosunuma et al, 2012; Kissinger et al., 2012)
Industrial wood production: 2% (EC, 2013)
INTEGRATED LANDUSE
POLICIES / MANAGEMENT
• Dominated by agriculture:
- Commercial agricultural expansion increases over time
- Imbedded deforestation in export of agricultural commodities increases over time
• The agricultural dimension of deforesta-tion demands integrated land use policies and management with re-arranged institutions, legislation and monitoring infrastructures
CHANGE IN FOOD CONSUMPTION
2005 2050
TOTAL FOOD DEMAND (FAO, AT 2050)
100% 154%
TOTAL FOOD DEMAND (Valin, et al., 2014,
Comparison of 10 different economic models)
100% 164-198% -- Average 174%
MEAT DEMAND (Valin, et al., 2014)
100% 162-342 -- Average 203%
CROP DEMAND (Valin, et al., 2014)
100% 55-197% -- Average 169%
GLOBAL LIVESTOCK
Today: 60 billion – 2050: 100 billion
Source: State of the World, 2012; and USAgriTech, Inc., 2008.
FUTURE LANDUSE
• Comparison of the 10 global models (above): increase of cropland by 10-25% up to 2050. Also increase in pasture land (Schmitz, et al., 2014)
• The current cropland area is estimated by FAO to 1.5 billion ha
• This means an expected landuse change of 150-375 million ha. Most of it in Sub-Saharan Africa and South America
WHERE IS THE CONVERSION
VALUE TO AGRICULTURE? US$/ha
Source: Don Roberts, CIBC World Markets Inc., 2010; Fischer G and Shah M, 2010.
1
Africa Latin America
WHERE IS THE CONVERSION
VALUE TO AGRICULTURE? US$/ha
Source: Don Roberts, CIBC World Markets Inc., 2010; Fischer G and Shah M, 2010.
2
Asia and
Middle East
FOOD DEMAND AND SUPPLY
• Throughout most of history, whenever we needed to produce more food we cut down the forests or plowed grasslands.
• The cash value of forests is too low in comparison to agricultural production – ‘the forests hinder development, leading to deforestation’
• Foley (2014) has identified 4 steps for increased agricultural production with current land
1. CLOSE YIELD GAPS
Source: Fischer G and Shah M, 2011
2. USE LAND RESOURCES MORE
EFFICIENTLY More innovations and more efficient management
of agricultural lands. For example, livestock
system intensification (Havlik, et al., 2014).
3. RELAVITIVE LAND SAVINGS BY
CHANGED DIETS
Source: Modified from Nakicenovic, N and von Winterfeldt D, Options, IIASA, Summer 2011.
Potential land saving of
20-40% by changed diets
4. WASTED FOOD
Source: Jon Miller, Gemba panta Rei, 28 Sept. 2012.
Source: Vaughan, A. The Guardian, 8 Sept. 2009.
30-50% of produced food wasted
Corresponding to 1.2-2 billion
tons annually
Source: Institution of Mechanical Engineers, 2013.
CROPLAND CONVERSION TO
PRODUCTIVE LAND
• There are 240-290 Mha accumulated of degraded croplands during the last 100 years which could be converted to productive cropland (Lambin and Meyfroidt, 2011)
• There are 300 Mha of agricultural land that could become more productive and sustainable through agro-forestry (IPFRI, 2006)
IN-VITRO MEAT PRODUCTION No land, no farmers, no animals, no mucking
Source: Dagens Nyheter (Swedish newspaper) published on 30 Aug. 2011; http://www.dn.se/nyheter/vetenskap/odlat-
kott-kan-minska-miljoproblem
AGRICULTURAL CHANGE HURDLES
• Low productivity
• Lack of access to land (property and economic rights)
• Improper land structure (land lots)
• Inadequate infrastructure for agricultural production
• Weakness in governance
• Chronic lack of financing
• Limited access to technologies and knowledge (R&D and extension services)
• Limited access to markets (regional protectionism)
We know what to do. WILL WE DO IT? Probably not.
Commercial agriculture certification; taxes based on land origin
OVERARCHING GLOBAL ISSUE
• Deforestation is a result of complex interactions of many different drivers
• We do not really know the real extent of deforestation or its dynamics (too many qualitative assessments)
• Currently remote sensing is using resolutions of 40-50 meters; instead we need 10-20 meter resolutions
• Too limited ground-truthing
• Drigo et al., (2009) for example, state ‘to analyze cause/impact of deforestation we must use data linked directly to objectively observed landuse change’
OBJECTIVE LANDUSE CHANGE
AND DEFORESTATION DATA
2015: launch of
Sentinel 2 – 10-20 m
resolution
Analytical
Consortium
Dissemination consortium
– near on-time and on-line
observations
Socio-Economic Development
Framework based on integrated
landuse concept
Efficient sample
network for ground-
truthing
Free access to
sample data
The remote sensing community has to shift gear from only launching
satellites and collecting data, to building relevant integrated analysis
Local users
MESSAGES
• Deforestation is a result of complex interactions of many different drivers
• Deforestation analysis must be based on a socio-economic development framework
• Agriculture expansion is a key issue
• Need integrated landuse policies and management
• Objective data on landuse change required for relevant policies and management of deforestation
• As long as governments and industry promote deforestation for the sake of social develop-ments, it will continue
Thank you for your attention!
Sten B. Nilsson CEO, Forest Sector Insights AB
TT Banan 12, S-77 693 Hedemora, Sweden
Phone/Fax: +46 225 381 02
Cell: +46 70 381 02 14; Skype: stenbnilsson
Email: stenbnilsson @gmail.com
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