The Challenge of Deforestation and Forest Degradation in the context of Climate Change,

Development and Biodiversity Law

GLOBAL ISSUES – DEFORESTATION

Brussels, 26-27 May 2014

Sten Nilsson CEO, Forest Sector

Insights AB

Taxes

Fires

Poverty

Policies

Cultures

Subsidies

Corruption Economics

Plantations Inequalities

Urbanization Technologies

Demography

Property rights

Transmigration

Climate change

Landuse change Landuse change

Wood consumption Road development

Foreign investments International agendas

DRIVERS OF DEFORESTATION

PRIMARY DRIVERS

H

o

w

?

W

h

o

?

W

h

y

?

SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

FRAMEWORK

• Deforestation is a result of the complex interactions of many different drivers at the local level

• To come up with sustainable policies on deforestation, a broad societal approach is needed and not just forestry measures

• Deforestation should be put into a socio-economic development framework

• ‘For the sake of development’ – governments, industry

AGGREGATED DRIVERS OF TROPICAL

(and SUBTROPICAL) GLOBAL

DEFORESTATION (1990-2008) – 1

Total Agriculture Expansion: 83-85% (Gibbs et al., 2010;

Hosunuma et al., 2012); Kissinger et al. 2012)

Commercial agriculture: 53-56% (Hosunuma et

al., 2012); Kissinger et al., 2012; and EC, 2013)

Crops: 31% - Pastures: 26% (EC, 2013)

Subsistence agriculture: 31% (Hosunuma et a.,

2012; and Kissinger et al., 2012)

Intact forests: 55%; Disturbed forest: 28% (Gibbs et al., 2010)

AGRICULTURE

AGGREGATED DRIVERS OF TROPICAL

(and SUBTROPICAL) GLOBAL

DEFORESTATION (1990-2008) – 2

Infrastructure/Built up: 4-11% (Hosunuma et al, 2012;

Kissinger et al. 2012; and EC, 2013)

OTHER SECTORS

Natural hazards: 13% (EC, 2013)

Mining: 5% (Hosunuma et al, 2012; Kissinger et al., 2012)

Industrial wood production: 2% (EC, 2013)

INTEGRATED LANDUSE

POLICIES / MANAGEMENT

• Dominated by agriculture:

- Commercial agricultural expansion increases over time

- Imbedded deforestation in export of agricultural commodities increases over time

• The agricultural dimension of deforesta-tion demands integrated land use policies and management with re-arranged institutions, legislation and monitoring infrastructures

CHANGE IN FOOD CONSUMPTION

2005 2050

TOTAL FOOD DEMAND (FAO, AT 2050)

100% 154%

TOTAL FOOD DEMAND (Valin, et al., 2014,

Comparison of 10 different economic models)

100% 164-198% -- Average 174%

MEAT DEMAND (Valin, et al., 2014)

100% 162-342 -- Average 203%

CROP DEMAND (Valin, et al., 2014)

100% 55-197% -- Average 169%

GLOBAL LIVESTOCK

Today: 60 billion – 2050: 100 billion

Source: State of the World, 2012; and USAgriTech, Inc., 2008.

FUTURE LANDUSE

• Comparison of the 10 global models (above): increase of cropland by 10-25% up to 2050. Also increase in pasture land (Schmitz, et al., 2014)

• The current cropland area is estimated by FAO to 1.5 billion ha

• This means an expected landuse change of 150-375 million ha. Most of it in Sub-Saharan Africa and South America

WHERE IS THE CONVERSION

VALUE TO AGRICULTURE? US$/ha

Source: Don Roberts, CIBC World Markets Inc., 2010; Fischer G and Shah M, 2010.

1

Africa Latin America

WHERE IS THE CONVERSION

VALUE TO AGRICULTURE? US$/ha

Source: Don Roberts, CIBC World Markets Inc., 2010; Fischer G and Shah M, 2010.

2

Asia and

Middle East

FOOD DEMAND AND SUPPLY

• Throughout most of history, whenever we needed to produce more food we cut down the forests or plowed grasslands.

• The cash value of forests is too low in comparison to agricultural production – ‘the forests hinder development, leading to deforestation’

• Foley (2014) has identified 4 steps for increased agricultural production with current land

1. CLOSE YIELD GAPS

Source: Fischer G and Shah M, 2011

2. USE LAND RESOURCES MORE

EFFICIENTLY More innovations and more efficient management

of agricultural lands. For example, livestock

system intensification (Havlik, et al., 2014).

3. RELAVITIVE LAND SAVINGS BY

CHANGED DIETS

Source: Modified from Nakicenovic, N and von Winterfeldt D, Options, IIASA, Summer 2011.

Potential land saving of

20-40% by changed diets

4. WASTED FOOD

Source: Jon Miller, Gemba panta Rei, 28 Sept. 2012.

Source: Vaughan, A. The Guardian, 8 Sept. 2009.

30-50% of produced food wasted

Corresponding to 1.2-2 billion

tons annually

Source: Institution of Mechanical Engineers, 2013.

CROPLAND CONVERSION TO

PRODUCTIVE LAND

• There are 240-290 Mha accumulated of degraded croplands during the last 100 years which could be converted to productive cropland (Lambin and Meyfroidt, 2011)

• There are 300 Mha of agricultural land that could become more productive and sustainable through agro-forestry (IPFRI, 2006)

IN-VITRO MEAT PRODUCTION No land, no farmers, no animals, no mucking

Source: Dagens Nyheter (Swedish newspaper) published on 30 Aug. 2011; http://www.dn.se/nyheter/vetenskap/odlat-

kott-kan-minska-miljoproblem

AGRICULTURAL CHANGE HURDLES

• Low productivity

• Lack of access to land (property and economic rights)

• Improper land structure (land lots)

• Inadequate infrastructure for agricultural production

• Weakness in governance

• Chronic lack of financing

• Limited access to technologies and knowledge (R&D and extension services)

• Limited access to markets (regional protectionism)

We know what to do. WILL WE DO IT? Probably not.

Commercial agriculture certification; taxes based on land origin

OVERARCHING GLOBAL ISSUE

• Deforestation is a result of complex interactions of many different drivers

• We do not really know the real extent of deforestation or its dynamics (too many qualitative assessments)

• Currently remote sensing is using resolutions of 40-50 meters; instead we need 10-20 meter resolutions

• Too limited ground-truthing

• Drigo et al., (2009) for example, state ‘to analyze cause/impact of deforestation we must use data linked directly to objectively observed landuse change’

OBJECTIVE LANDUSE CHANGE

AND DEFORESTATION DATA

2015: launch of

Sentinel 2 – 10-20 m

resolution

Analytical

Consortium

Dissemination consortium

– near on-time and on-line

observations

Socio-Economic Development

Framework based on integrated

landuse concept

Efficient sample

network for ground-

truthing

Free access to

sample data

The remote sensing community has to shift gear from only launching

satellites and collecting data, to building relevant integrated analysis

Local users

MESSAGES

• Deforestation is a result of complex interactions of many different drivers

• Deforestation analysis must be based on a socio-economic development framework

• Agriculture expansion is a key issue

• Need integrated landuse policies and management

• Objective data on landuse change required for relevant policies and management of deforestation

• As long as governments and industry promote deforestation for the sake of social develop-ments, it will continue

Thank you for your attention!

Sten B. Nilsson CEO, Forest Sector Insights AB

TT Banan 12, S-77 693 Hedemora, Sweden

Phone/Fax: +46 225 381 02

Cell: +46 70 381 02 14; Skype: stenbnilsson

Email: stenbnilsson @gmail.com