future possibilities for utilization of solar energy serc 2009 05-20

Future possibilities for utilization of solar energy in the European power

system(solar power & the balanced carbon

cycle concept )SERC Dalarna University, 2009-05-20

Stefan Larsson-Mastonstråle

CSP State of the art

Report of pre-studyStefan Larsson et alDalarna University-

SERC

John Ericson solar engine, 1872

3

Linear Fresnel

TowerTrough

Different CSP technologies

This study excludes small scale CSP (<10 MWe)

4

CSP: Concentrated Solar Power

• Cheapest solar power technology available• Dispatchable power for peaking and intermediate loads through hybridization and/or

thermal storage.• Proven technology with 354 MW operating successfully in California for the past 15

years.• Rapidly deployed because it uses conventional items such as glass, steel, gears,

turbines, etc.• Water requirements similar to coal-fired plant.

What is CSP?

5

354 MW Kramer Junction 1982-

Rankine cycle efficiency: 35-37%Solar to electricity efficiency: >20%

6

65 MW Nevada plant commissioning 2007

Parabolic through technology

7

Planned/ongoing CSP projects: World

8

Planned/ongoing CSP projects: Spain

9

10

11

System layout from USA

System layout from Spain

12

2000h * 200 MW = 8000h * 50 MW, storage 25’000ton = 6 h * 50MW

Storage increases capacity factor and dispatchability

13

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Storage time [h]

Cap

acity

fact

or [%

]

Sources: NREL, DOE, SunLab, Flagsol, DLR

14

Vacuum tube absorbers from Schott Gmbh

Possible by-products adding value

15

Fresh water desalination

District heating/cooling

Process heat:•Concrete production•Food industry•Bleaching/chemistry

Future: Hydrogen(Metal-metaloxide)

Toxic water cleaning

”Solar CHP” increases overall efficiency

16

Operation & Maintanance of CSP

17

• Thermal Energy Storage– Improved Heat Transfer Fluids

• Low cost fluid with low vapor pressure and higher temperature stability to increase solar operating temperatures (e.g. troughs from 400ºC to 550ºC).

» 16% improvement in the annual solar to electric efficiency » 12% reduction in cost of energy

– Low cost storage at 500ºC• Advanced Receiver Designs

– Solar Selective Coatings• Cutting thermal emittance in half from 14% at 400ºC to 7%, while

maintaining solar absorptance at 95%» 15% improvement in the annual solar to electric efficiency » 15% reduction in cost

Current CSP technology development

Distance from source to load

18

Energy source development (TRANS-CSP)

19

Import dependency (TRANS-CSP)

20

21

0,00

0,05

0,10

0,15

0,20

0,25

0,30

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

Cumulative Installed Capacity (MWe)

Rea

l LCO

E 20

02$/

kWh

1988 30-MW SEGS

Current Potential2004 Technology, 50-MWe

SizeOptimum Location

1984 14-MW SEGS

Future Cost Potential2004-2012

Factors Contributing to Cost Reduction- Scale-up 37%- Volume Production 21%- Technology Development 42%

1989 80-MW SEGS

• Sargent & Lundy’s due-diligence study* evaluated the potential cost reductions of CSP.

• Cost reductions for trough technology will result from scale-up, R&D and deployment.

• Utilities have expressed interest in technology if cost at 7 cents/kWh or less.

* Sargent and Lundy (2003). Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Impacts. http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy04osti/34440.pdf

Reference ”learning curve”

RE cost vs time (TRANS-CSP)

22

RE potential for EU countries

23

År 2050 har EU ca 5600 TWh RE potential och ett el-energibehov om ca 4000 TWh.Samtidigt som import av fossilt bränsle beräknas öka till >70% av EU behovet.

Land use of different energy sources?

24

Arealbehov för CSP @ 20 %

verkningsgrad**Kramer junction 1 TWh, 2,5 milj m2, 20% eta (1985-94, 12 TWh tot -06)

HVDC extension (DLR)

25

Elsystemet integreras i nord/sydlig riktning tydligare än idag.

Source: DLR Trans-CSP study

HVDC extension (EU-MENA, TREC)

26

HVDC extension (EWEA)

27

“Water stress” also seem to be a important driver

28

Land grabbing for biofuels

29

The finance of CSP

Revenues from operation

• Electricity sales

• Subsidies, e.g. feed-in tariffs:– Spain: 22 c€/kWh– Greece: 23-25 c€/kWh

• By-products from ”waste” heat– Desalinated water– District heating/cooling– Fuels

31

Investment cost of CSP-PT: Current situation

• State-of-the-art technology today in 2300-3500 €/kW range– Andasol I&II (Spain)– Nevada Solar One (USA)– Theseus (Greece)– Archimedes (Italy)– Exception: Enea (Italy) claims 1570 €/kW using new structures etc.

• Investment cost is heavily dependent on whether thermal energy storage (TES) is incorporated in the design and to what extent

32

Large TES capacity

High Investment cost

Low LCOE[c€/kWh]

High capacity factor

and dispatchability

Decoupled by TES!!

CSP investment cost divided on its components

Solar field is the dominating part of investment: ~50%

33

Source: Fichtner 2002

CSP-PT Solar field cost divided on its components

Structures, receivers and mirrors cost!

34

Source: Ecostar, DLR 2005

Investment cost of CSP-PT: Reduction potential

• Main targets for cost reduction:– Solar field: Structure designs, receiver and reflector materials– Storage: Media, design– System: Steam cycle options (oil, direct steam generation)

35

15-30% cost reduction

Unit scaling and mass production of components can reduce another 30%+

=~45-60% cost reduction

Source: Ecostar, DLR 2005

O&M costs: current and outlook

Best actual O&M costs proven:• Kramer Junction: 0.025 US$/kWh (1998)

Current estimate state-of-the-art:• 2-3% of investment per year (ENEA, TREC etc)• from 1.3-2.9 c€/kWh in O&M cost

Future estimates:• 0.6 c€/kWh (0.008 US$/kWh) DOE goal for 2020• 0.85 c€/kWh ENEA

36

LCOE estimates – current and outlook

37

0,000

0,020

0,040

0,060

0,080

0,100

0,120

0,140

0,160

0,180

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Year

LCO

E [c

€/kW

h]

Sources: IEA, ENEA, DLR, Sargent&Lundy, NREL, DOE…

The impact of a market valued CO2-price

38

LCOE sensitivity to CO2 prices

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

10,0

12,0

14,0

16,0

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

CO2 price [€/ton]

LCO

E [c

€/kW

h]

Coal best available

Coal CO2 hiGas best available

Gas CO2 highCSP

40€/ton: Marginal cost for needed CO2 reduction [Vattenfall/McKinsey]

~65€/ton: CO2 externalities estimated cost [Stern Review]

With today’s costs, CSP could be close to commercial without subsidies - if fossil fuels would bear their own costs

CSP Market development: current status

39

We are here

CSP value chain development implies incremental decrease in costs

Relation solar irradiation and LCOE

40

Sevilla Best european

site

Desert Best site in the world

Selection of site is essential for competetiveness

Source: Ecostar, DLR 2005

41

Operation & Maintanance of CSP

What are the O&M costs?

Labor costs:• Tech services

– Mirror cleaning• Operations• Administrations• Maintenance

Materials:• Mirror breakage• Receiver breakage• …

42

Back-up

LCOE vs TES

43

Back-up

B3C – Balanced Carbon Cycle Concept

A energy business system concept for a possible smooth transition into the

next energy economy

Stefan Larsson, Mikael Svensson (Vattenfall R&D AB)

B3C: Vision

B3C is a energy & business system concept that…

…could turn CO2 sequestration & storage into a profitable business activity

…separates environmental impact, primary energy supply and economic growth

…uses renewable energy in symbiosis with existing infrastructure…solves the intermittance problem of renewable energy…expands the value chain…offers additional business opportunities…allows a smooth transition into the next energy economy

45

46

B3C:The world of power & fuels

The future world ofpower utility

business?

Higher emission costs

RE intermitta

nce

Fuel switching

Regulations DG expansio

n

Fuel prices

Security of supply

Capital destr.

The CO

2 iss ue

Economic recess. Corporate responsibility

2013 will be a transition into high end costs for fossil power!

B3C:Old energy business rules no longer

apply The energy world is experiencing:

- Energy prices are increasing

- Global fuel recource assessment often ”political” rather than ”physical”

- Fuels are not ”abundant” today

- We now have a multiple market ”energy price” for all fuels

- Markets converge: Transportation and Power are not separate markets.

- Decreasing fuel quality increase prices and energy conversion costs

47

Fuels are quickly becoming a business problem!

B3C:”peak-oil”

48

B3C:Are we close to maximum production

rate?

49

B3C:R/P 2120 scenario with fuel switching

50

R/P forecast (IEA and GeoHIVE data)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2003

2007

2011

2015

2019

2023

2027

2031

2035

2039

2043

2047

2051

2055

2059

2063

2067

2071

2075

2079

2083

2087

2091

2095

2099

2103

2107

2111

2115

2119

R/P

(Oil,

gas

)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

R/P

(Coa

l) R/P Oil

R/P Gas

R/P Coal

Fuel switching occur on a global basisif oil production rate is at ASPO/BP/IEA

base reference level.

51

B3C:Nuclear fuel supply forecast?

Conventional nuclear fuel potential seems to be limited!

52

B3C:Price development of fuels

53

B3C:Price development of fuels

54

B3C:How is the state of global fossil fuels?

Supply:- Petroleum: Conventional non-OPEC oil

has probably peaked. Nonconventional+conventional petroleum could be peaking before 2020.

- Gas: The amount of LNG terminals are soaring worldwide. Natural gas is quickly depleting its resource base.

- Coal: Coal R/P was 250 years in 1999. It is estimated to 160 years in BP statistical review 2004.

Demand:- Fuel switching: There are many

projects that want to produce synfuels from NG, LNG and Coal to leviate the transportation industry fuel costs.

- Power plants shift fuel to cope with increased costs.

- As fuel quality decreases by time, the distribution & conversion energy input increases = less ”net” fuel is produced.

- World population & energy use are still on the rise.

High probability that supply and demand will not be met in the future

55

B3C:Conclusion of current trends

The world fuel production development are not ”business as usual” anymore.

What can we do?- Use more ”fuel-free” intermittent energy systems (hydro, wind, wave)?- Build more energy storage systems (pump hydro, compressed air

storage, large batteries)?- By fuels from new sources or non-conventional fuels?- Increase efficiency in our plants (at high costs)?

Is this the dark end of the utility tunnel or is there any light at the end?

56

B3C:What is the solution then?

- No single technology is the answer to a smooth transition into a new energy economy!

- Most renewables produce low grade heat or electricity=power market disruption & intermittent sources (a storage issue arise)!

- A ”warp” into the Hydrogen economy is not a plausible answer!

- The world need a primary energy input that is non-intermittent!

- The system solution has to fit current energy infrastucture!

What is implementable within the current energy infrastructure without scale limitations or capital destruction?

B3C: Fossil fuel based powerplants today

57

Power plant

Atmosphere

Customer(Private/

Commercial)

Fossil fuel(Primary energy)

Water (e.g. ocean sea, lakes, groundwater)

O2 H2O

H2O

Heat / electricity

Coal / gas / oil

CO2

Energy/substance storageEnergy carrier flowOther substances flow

Energy conversionPrimary energy inflow to system

Energy end user

Biomass(Primary energy)

CO2

H2O

O2

Biomass

RE

Transport sector

CO2O2

B3C: CO2 sequestration and storage

58

Power plant

Atmosphere

Customer(Private/

Commercial)

Fossil fuel(Primary energy)

Water (e.g. ocean sea, lakes, groundwater)

CO2

CO2O2

O2 H2O

H2O

Heat / electricity

Coal / gas / oil

CO2 (Bio)

Energy/substance storageEnergy carrier flowOther substances flow

Energy conversionPrimary energy inflow to system

Energy end user

Biomass(Primary energy)

CO2

H2O

O2

Biomass

RE

CO2 storage Transport sector

59

B3C: What about the CO2 sequestration byproduct?

What is the most promising business opportunity with a waste CO2 stream?

60

B3C:The hydrocarbon conversion triangle

61

+Thermal energy

Carbon DioxideWater

Methanol (or other hydrocarbon)Water (pure H2O)Oxygen

+Thermal energy

Carbon DioxideWater

Methanol (or other hydrocarbon)Water (pure H2O)Oxygen

B3C:Synthesis of H2O + CO2 CH3OH

B3C:Artificial Hydrocarbon fuels

62

H2

CO2

CH3OHCompression/Catalysis

IN OUT

Heat

Reformulate CO2+H2 into CH3OH.

Atmosphere

Reduction of CO2 to CH3OH(220°C, 50 bar)

B3C:Heat generated H2 for fuel production

63

H2O

O2

H2

CO2

CH3OH

Electrolysis orThermochemical

Hydrogen

Compression/Catalysis

Energy

AtmosphereIN OUT

Heat

CO2 from Oxyfuel powerplants CO2 from AirFuel to powerplants& refinerys

Use RE to produce the hydrogen

Turn CO2 emissions into usable Methanol!

$250/kWtRef. Brown, et al AIChE 2003

General Atomics

64

B3C:System concept of CO2 recycling (B3C)!

”Carbon cycle concept”

Power plant

Atmosphere

Fuel productionplant

Customer(Private/

Commercial)

Customer(Transport sector)

*) AHF: Artificial Hydrocarbon Fuels

Water (e.g. ocean sea, lakes, groundwater)

CO2

CO2O2

O2O2 H2O

H2O

H2OAHF*

AHF*/Electricity

Heat / electricity

CO2RE

Heat / electricity

CO2 storage

Energy/substance storageEnergy carrier flowOther substances flow

Energy conversionPrimary energy inflow to system

Energy end user

AHF* storage

Biomass(Primary energy)

CO2

H2O

O2

Biomass

RE

Fossil fuel(Primary energy)

Coal / gas / oil

CO2

65

B3C:Other possibilities?

Recycle CO2 from:

- Post combustion capture in power plants- Biogas fermentation- Ethanol fermentation- Polygeneration power plants- Sea water (polymembrane separators)- Concrete production facilities

66

B3C: What about the CO2 levels in the atmosphere?

Could we ever reduce the CO2 levels below 372ppm?

Is there a possibilty to run the old power plantsat low CO2 costs without sequestration technology

until they are decomissioned?

67

B3C:Carbon management & fuel production

H2O

O2

H2

CO2

CH3OH

Hydrogen

Compression/Catalysis

AtmosphereIN OUT

Heat

CO2 capture from air

Turn CO2 emissions into usable CH3OH (Methanol) and reduce CO2 below todays level!

CO2 from Oxyfuel powerplants CO2 from AirFuel to powerplants& refinerys

Add artificial trees to capture air CO2

$10-15/ton CO2Ref. K.S.Lackner

Los Alamos

B3C:Direct CO2 capture – total carbon

management

68

CO2

Direct CO2 capture

AtmosphereIN

OUTThermochemical

plant

If the capture is powered by natural wind, atmospheric carbon capture could be cheap!

69

B3C:Capturing CO2 directly from the air?

9500 ton CO2/dayEquals a 360 MW coal powerplant

Or car emissions for a 700 000 person city

Dr Klaus Lackner, Columbia USA, envision caustic soda, sodium hydroxide as CO2 absorbent.Evaluated current known technologies and made cost estimates of such extraction devices.

At 6m/s one finds that through the windmill collection area pass 130W/m2 of kinetic energy carried by the air. Through the CO2 collector pass 3.8g/(m2 sec) of CO2. In an area and time in which the windmill collects 1 kWh the CO2 collector of equal efficiency extracts 3.6×106 J/130 J×3.8 g = 105 kg.

Thus collection of 1 ton of CO2 is equivalent to the generation of 10 kWh of electricity from wind.

70

B3C: What about the H2 production?

Where do we find cheap energy in a fuel constrained world at sufficient scale for the probable demand?

71

B3C: H2 electrolysis by RE-power (wind, wave, tidal)

(*From ELSAM ”Venzin project”)

72

B3C:Hydrogen with thermochemical reactorsThere are more than 100 known thermochemical hydrogen production cycles available today

Example: The sulfur-iodine process system efficiency is >50% compared to 25-35% for electrolysis (the electrolysis process + conventional electric power plant efficiency)

73

B3C:Hydrogen + synthesis in reversible fuel cells

(*George Olaf and others)

Direct synthesis are one possibility (we find lots of referenses in refinery industry papers)

74

B3C:CSP energy for H2 production?

H2O

O2

H2

CO2

CH3OH

ThermochemicalHydrogen

Compression/Catalysis

SolarHeat

AtmosphereIN OUT

Heat

CO2 capture from air

Use cheap (EUR10/kW) mirrors to collect high grade solar heat and produce a solar fuel!

CO2 from Oxyfuel powerplants CO2 from AirFuel to powerplants& refinerys

Add a large scalesolar concentrator

Heat

75

B3C:First synthetic fuel power plant concept

Metal/MetalOxide

CH3OH

CO2

H2

H2O

O2

G

AHF

Electricity

Heat

Desalinationplant

Seawater

100%

50%

50%

60%*50%=~30%

30%*70%=~20%

40%*50%=~20%

H2O

Example: Secondary use of heat

Fue l

reac

t or

Metal/MetalOxide

CH3OH

CO2

H2

H2O

O2

G

AHF

Electricity

Heat

Desalinationplant

Seawater

100%

50%

50%

60%*50%=~30%

30%*70%=~20%

40%*50%=~20%

H2O

Example: Secondary use of heat

Fue l

reac

t or

(*One of Stefan Larsson-Mastonstråle’s system idea’s)

76

B3C:Solar fuel reactor technology could be feasible

Heliostat reflector cost 200-220 EUR/kWt (@2000-2500 h). Solar fuel = no intermittance for the end user!

CO2

Direct CO2 capture

AtmosphereIN

OUT Solar Thermochemical

plant

0,05-100 MW

>300 MW

77

B3C:Hydrogen with M/Mo reactors (Solzink project)

78

B3C: Renewable gasoline

Sandia USA are one of the leading groupsPapers are available from Shell, BP, Norsk Hydro (and others)

79

B3C: Renewable fuels from CO2

Fritz Haber institute, Berlin

80

H2O Solar HydrocarbonsCH4 alt CH3OH

Feeding pump

Membrane separator

Membrane separator

Compressor

Air or Air enriched CO2

N2 + O2 out

Polyionic liquid catalysis

B3C: ”PICAT” polyionic liquid hydrocarbon synthesis

(*One of Stefan Larsson-Mastonstråle’s system idea’s)

81

B3C: What about the RE energy infrastructures?

Can we get the energy from producer locations to the user countries?

B3C:The EU hydrocarbon infrastructure

map

82

If the renewable fuel is a hydrocarbon (Methane or Methanol), we can use current pipeline and transport infrastructure at low cost

Solar Thermochemical

plants

Solar Thermochemical

plants

Fossil fired power plants

Fossil fired power plants

Solar Thermochemical

plants

Fossil fired power plants

Existing pipelinesPlanned or under constructionLNG facilities

83

B3C:The EU electricity infrastructure map

Renewable electrity becomes increasingly easy to distribute across EU.

B3C: A new business opportunity?

84

Power plant

Atmosphere

Fuel productionplant

Customer(Private/

Commercial)

Customer(Transport sector)

*) AHF: Artificial Hydrocarbon Fuels

Water (e.g. ocean sea, lakes, groundwater)

CO2

CO2O2

O2O2 H2O

H2O

H2OAHF*

AHF*/Electricity

Heat / electricity

CO2RE

Heat / electricity

CO2 storage

Energy/substance storageEnergy carrier flowOther substances flow

Energy conversionPrimary energy inflow to system

Energy end user

AHF* storage

Biomass(Primary energy)

CO2

H2O

O2

Biomass

RE

Fossil fuel(Primary energy)

Coal / gas / oil

CO2

B3C:Conclusions

A feasible and smooth transition into the RE economy could be possible

85

Turn the CO2 problem into profits

Use existing infrastructure

Large scale renewable energy without intermittance

Expand the value chain and customer base

B3C

86

The most important results from realization of a B3C system solution are believed to be: 

•Strengthens security of primary energy supply

•Separates environmental impact, primary energy supply and economic growth

•Energy storage as fuel eliminates RE intermittence & CO2 storage costs

•Cost efficient way for transition into a post-fossil energy economy

•New business opportunities; new fuels, chemical feedstock, water etc.

•Will not disturb electricity market, unlike direct renewable electricity generation

•Political and public leverage due to proactiveness from energy industry

B3C: Results from a possible implementation?

Thank you!