future energy scenarios 2015 supply marcus stewart demand and supply manager

Future Energy Scenarios 2015Supply

Marcus Stewart Demand and Supply Manager

Changes from last year

The generation mix is shifting

Narrow margins set to continue, tools are in place

Coal declines due to environmental legislation

*

* CCS in Gone Green, conventional coal in No Progression

Existing nuclear declines, new plants post 2024

Gas important part of the mix but economics look challenging…

Wind capacity to at least double by 2030

Significant solar growth

High solar impacts system operability

ConsumerPower

Tra

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issi

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(G

W)

Time

Summer minimum demand

GB is a net electricity importer in three of the four scenarios

2030 Capacity11GW – 18GW

Annual interconnector flows

Activity in the last 12 months

Sufficient gas supplies but uncertainty on the source

Consumer Power

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2034

Slow Progression

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2034

Energy supply summary

GB is a net importer of electricity in three of four

scenarios.

Electricity margins remain narrow for this winter, but thetools are in place to manage, the 2018/19 Capacity Market is designed to maintain standard.

Large increase in distributed generation will change

the way the network is operated.

Sufficient gas supplies across all scenarios but with

uncertainty on the source.