from the physics trenches to the political swamp fnal october 15, 2014 michael lubell director of...
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From the Physics TrenchesTo the Political Swamp
FNALOctober 15, 2014
Michael LubellDirector of Public Affairs, APS
Mark W. Zemansky Professor of Physics, CCNY
1
A Few Words About My Journey
Competing Views of 21st Century Sciencefrom
Two Giants of Biomedicine
• Craig Venter (2004): “If the 20th century was the century of physics, the 21st century will be the century of biology.”
• Harold Varmus (2000): “Medical advances may seem like wizardry. But pull back the curtain, and sitting at the lever is a high- energy physicist, a combinatorial chemist or an engineer.”
In Today’s Physics Trenches
• The Higgs
ATLAS Candidate Higgs
In Today’s Physics Trenches
• The Higgs
ATLAS
In Today’s Physics Trenches
• The Higgs• Neutrino Oscillations
In Today’s Physics Trenches
• The Higgs• Neutrino Oscillations
Daya Bay Antineutrino Detectors
In Today’s Physics Trenches
• The Higgs• Neutrino Oscillations• Mars Exploration
Evidence of Early Water
In Today’s Physics Trenches
• The Higgs• Neutrino Oscillations• Mars Exploration
Curiosity Rover Selfie
In Today’s Physics Trenches
• The Higgs• Neutrino Oscillations• Mars Exploration• Ultrafast Spectroscopy
Water Molecules in Protein Crystal
In Today’s Physics Trenches
• The Higgs• Neutrino Oscillations• Mars Exploration• Ultrafast Spectroscopy
LCLS Undulator Hall
The Political Swamp
WashingtonSpinning WheelsHow bad can it get?
Until the Budget AccordLast Year’s Pinnacle of Success
Helium
The Political Context
16
113th Congress October 20144
113th CongressOctober 2014
Tea Party Members
Voteview.com
Voteview.com
The Budget Context
The Budget Future
No Grand Deal Constrained Spending
The Political Future
Populism
Populism
A political philosophy supporting the rights and power of the people in their struggle against the
privileged elite.
The Public Context
What the Public Thinks
• Science is important (93%)• Federal research support research is an appropriate use of
tax dollars (68%)• Few people see how research affects their lives• Science is 2nd on a list of programs to cut • Trust in government is low (15-20%)• More than 50% of voters say they want to replace their
own representative – first time in more than 20 years
What the Public Thinks Matters More than Ever
• When spending is risingAn inside Washington game works
• When spending is fallingElected officials evaluate which cuts voters will most
easily accept
A Snapshot of Science Appropriations
Revealing Some Policy & Priority Differences
Science AppropriationsBy the Numbers
Bedtime Reading
Account FY 11CR FY 12 FY 13 FY 14P
FY 14 FY 15P FY15H FY15S
DOE SC 4.84 4.88 4.59 5.15 5.07 5.11 5.07 5.09
ASCR 0.42 0.44 0.42 0.466 0.478 0.541 0.541 0.557
BER 0.61 0.61 0.58 0.625 0.610 0.628 0.540 0.628
BES 1.68 1.69 1.59 1.86 1.71 1.81 1.70 1.81
FES 0.38 0.40 0.38 0.466 0.505 0.416 0.540 0.341
HEP 0.80 0.79 0.74 0.777 0.797 0.744 0.775 0.774
NP 0.54 0.55 0.52 0.570 0.570 0.593 0.600 0.602
DOE EERE 1.84 1.82 1.70 2.78 1.91 2.32 1.79 2.07
DOE ARPA-E 0.180 0.280 0.250 0.379 0.280 0.325 0.280 0.280
DOE NNSA 10.52 11.00 10.79 11.65 11.21 11.66 11.36 11.9
NSF 6.86 7.03 6.82 7.625 7.20 7.26 7.41 7.26
R&RA 5.56 5.72 5.63 6.212 5.81 5.81 5.98 5.84
MREFC 0.117 0.170 0.180 0.210 0.200 0.201 0.201 0.201
EHR 0.861 0.830 0.840 0.881 0.847 0.890 0.876 0.890
NIST Core 0.578 0.620 0.640 0.754 0.707 0.739 0.726 0.744
STRS 0.507 0.570 0.580 0.694 0.651 0.680 0.671 0.685
CRF 0.070 0.060 0.060 0.060 0.056 0.059 0.055 0.059
NIH 30.69 31.64 28.83 31.09 29.90 30.2 30.5
DOD 6.1 1.95 2.12 1.90 EST 2.16 2.17 2.02 2.03 2.27
DOD 6.2 4.45 4.70 4.23 EST 4.63 4.64 4.46 4.53 4.59
NASA Sci 4.94 5.09 4.78 5.02 5.15 4.97 5.19 5.20
Selected
Scien
ce Acco
un
ts in $B
Science WarsPlaying Out in the House SST Committee
I’ll let you be the judge!
Science WarsPlaying Out in the House SST Committee
NSF Lifetime limit on grantee support (5 years) Limit on personal citations in proposals (5) Turnover to SST the reviews of selected projects (50) Redefined mission focusing on national needs
DOE No results from DOE supported research may be
used by any government agency for carrying out assessments or developing regulations
Messaging Matters• Providing you with jobs rather than growing the economy• Saving your life rather than improving health care• Saving you money and time at the supermarket rather
than improving quality of life• Saving you money at the pump: giving you more miles per
gallon rather than providing better fuel efficiency• Connecting you with family and friends rather than
creating social media • Images rather than words
2014 Election Forecast• House: All seats up
– Changes only at the margin
• Senate: 33 seats up (20 D and 13 R)– Republicans need a pickup of 6 seats to gain control– Certain Republican pickups: Montana and West Virginia
(both vacated Democratic seats)– Likely Republican pickups: Alaska, Arkansas, South Dakota
(vacated Democratic seat) and Louisiana– Possible Republican pickup: Iowa– Possible but unlikely Republican pickup: Colorado– Possible but unlikely Democratic pickup: Kentucky– Possible Democratic pickup: Georgia– The wildcard: Kansas
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