food & water crisis s9 ait 3 nov 09 v2

The inseparable water and food crises: how can we overcome them?

Alain VidalCGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food

Spiritual Transformation for Sustainable DevelopmentAIT – Bangkok – 3 November 2009

Food crisis: is it new?

Kenya 1998-2000 drought: $2.4 billion losses

Remember! Every 5 seconds, one child younger than 10 dies of hunger

Food crisis: the hunger countdown?

3 billion do not eat their fill2 billion suffer from malnutrition1 billion suffer from hunger 75% of them are rural poor Alleviating hunger means reducing rural poverty

Reducing rural poverty Increase farmers income and resilience And NOT transform the rural poor into urban poor

Water, food and GDP

Many poor countries depend on food production as the basis of GDP (eg Sub-Saharan Africa)…

… and agriculture growth is strongly related to water (eg rainfall in Ethiopia)

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Impact of rainfall variability on GDP and Agricultural GDP growth

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rainfall variability

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ag grow th GDP grow th

What is causing the world food crisis?

Long-term trends… Increasing demand - Income growth and dietary change, climate

change, high energy prices, globalization and urbanization Decreasing supply - Slow growing supply, low stocks, supply

shocks

…plus new short-term effects exacerbating long-term trends Speculation and biofuel production have disproportionately

affected the poor Uncertainties due to economic instability

Rapid variations in world food prices

What’s next?

More meat in China, more milk in India

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GDP per capita (2000 constant dollars per year)

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Food & feed demand will double The main driver

How much more cereal will we have to grow to meet growing demand? While world population will increase by 50%...While world population will increase by 50%... … … changes in diets will result in almost doubling changes in diets will result in almost doubling

the food demand!the food demand!

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Long-term effect of climate change

Decrease of main crops production by 2050 ! Maize 16% Rice 21% Wheat 42%

Eg rainfall change from 1990 to 2070-2100

What have we learnt from the 2008 crisis?

Food commodities is another casino where people gamble In face of the financial crisis, speculators and hedge funds have turned

towards food commodities Food prices have risen dramatically and first affected the poor : in

2008-09, the number of undernourished raised from 920 to 1000 million (FAO)

Consequences of the economic and financial crisis Temporarily slowed down the food demand increase, resulting in

lower food prices – but too low for farmers Decreased incomes and salaries and increased smallholders’ debt,

resulting in decreased investment in agriculture

• What does the future of world food prices look like?

Do we also have a water crisis?

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The driving forces?

Growing populationDietary changeUrbanizationBiofuel productionNeed for environmental water Climate change

… similar to the food crisis drivers!

The Water Crisis in context

Vegetarian diet uses 2000 L/day - OR - Grainfed meat diet 5000 L/day

2-5L Daily

20-500L Daily

500-3000LPer Kg

Water consumption is increasing

Dietary water demand grows with GDP

Lundqvist 2008

GDP US$/cap/yr

The water productivity challenge

Do we have enough water resources to grow enough food and meet future demand for biofuels?

No… with today’s practices, doubling food production in 2050 would require to almost double agricultural water use

…Unless we change the way we think and act on water issues

A simple and ideal scenario: if we doubled the amount of food produced per m3 of water, we would be safe

Increase the productivity of water to potential

Higher productivity means better income, better buffer against income fluctuations due to climate variability Water is often a constraint in productivityIntegration of livestock and fisheries to derive more value per unit of water

Potential = 1-2 kg/m3

Water productivity and resource management

Before After

Growth rate of Bac Lieu province (2004 – 2006) 15.7%/yrRice-shrimp profits: ca. USD 2150/ha/year

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The resilience challenge

Not only should water productivity be increased…

…but communities and ecosystems producing food should be able to cope with global changes (climate, economy, demography, migrations…) , ie

become more resilient (persistent, adaptable, transformable)

Green water Blue water

MUS

MUS resilience zone

Single uses

unstable zone

Resilience of dry rainfed systems

Green water is the source of runoff and percolation of blue water

Ways to improve access to green water In-field soil water conservation techniques that increase the

rate of infiltration and percolation, e.g. mulching Micro catchment or runoff farming and supplementary ‐

irrigation to capture overland flow from areas adjacent to fields

Household crop income raised from US$200 to 600 per year

Resilience from wetlands: Nam Songkhram

Highly productive but contested waterscape Floods and droughts always presented as main obstacles

to development, whereas flood pulse is main driver of wetland productivity

Threat of ‘Water Grid’ and other mega projects hangs ‐over future of wetlands

But household income US$1100/y

“paa boong paa thaam”

Resilience from Multiple Use water Systems

Multiple use water systems are an effective way to fight poverty by improving access to agricultural waterExperience shows that farmers use/re-use multiple (up to 9!) sources of water

livestock

door

Total area 2 ha ; ponds, paddy fields; integrated farm; and forest

Paddy field

Paddy field

Paddy field

Paddy field

Paddy field

Paddy field

Trees & fruits

Trees & fruits

12x24x5 m

Tre

es &

frui

ts Trees & fruits

Farm

Forest

Frog farm

Vegetables

Nursery

From domestic water to multiple-use

Homestead-scale multiple-use gives high resilience against natural- and human-made volatility Especially for the poor and for women

generates ‘more MDG per drop’ Multiple-use water ladder, with household water-derived

income ranging from US$40 to 300/year Costs for multiple-use supplies for homestead-based

production typically repaid within 3 years, from the income gained, therefore cross-subsidized domestic uses

Spiritual Transformation

Inhumanity inflicted to another destroys humanity in myself

Emmanuel Kant, philosopher

Science is a differential equation, religion is a boundary condition

Alan Turing, founder of computer science

Reintroducing a « triangulation »

Man alone with his pulsions

Universal law and inner peace

« O

ther

ness

»

Changes at individual level

Care for individual water footprint

Political changes at local level

Respect and learn from sacred waterscapes

Paa Boong Paa Thaam (Thailand)

Tamboloma sacred lake in the Andean Paramo (Ecuador)

Water Temples (Bali)

Political changes at local level

In Balinese subaks, water sharing coordinated by temples has increased collective output incomeMore gain from sharing than from protecting individual interests (spiritual > economic)

Political changes at global level

High level declarations from spiritual leaders do have impact Eg Encyclical Letter Caritas in Veritate

“a network of economic institutions capable of guaranteeing regular access to sufficient food and water for nutritional needs, and also capable of addressing the primary needs and necessities ensuing from genuine food crises, whether due to natural causes or political irresponsibility, nationally and internationally” (§27)

How do we exploit the unique moment of this Forum?

Thank you

Alain Vidal, CPWF Directora.vidal@cgiar.org

www.waterandfood.orgwww.slideshare.com/CPWF

References and links

Challenge Program on Water and Food (CPWF) www.waterandfood.org

The World Bank www.worldbank.org World Development Report 2007 on Agriculture

Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO) www.fao.org

International Water Management Institute (IWMI) www.iwmi.org Comprehensive Assessment on Water and Agriculture

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) www.ifpri.org

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Photo Credits

Challenge Program on Water and FoodThe World BankInternational Water Management InstituteInternational Livestock Research InstituteInternational Development EnterprisesReuters

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